Hello and Good Morning,Afternoon,Evening wherever you are(lol Cricinfo style).
Yesterday we predicted Draw around 1.6 as free lay but it never comes.So was England around 7.2 bit value to back,Infact England price drifted to 15 then after 2 quick wickets shorten to 5 if anyone traded on England price must be in profit.
Anyway before start of day2 we try to look what opportunities we may have:
India 316/4 at close of 1st day and odds are England 7.4,India 2.9 and Draw 1.88
1.Free lay:It will be Draw again below or around 1.6
2.Trading opportunity:India around 3.5 if comes when England comes to bat.
Lastly chances of Draw in this test is less because weather is fine and last two days will be dominated by bowlers i think and only one inning below 200 generally enough for result in test match also England is still very much in the game As the ball is new they can bowled out india on day 2 around 380.And then make 450+ than out india cheaply in 2nd inning (My Wild Imaginations).
So don't back Draw and India heavily.It is my opinion,waiting for your comments on day 2 and likely outcome of match.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Thursday, August 9, 2007
3rd Test England/India 1st Day,Lunch
First sorry for delay post as today we miss our homework for 3rd test but at lunch now we can see market mood and other key points.India won the toss and elected to bat first at lunch Indians are 117/1
Odds are England 7.2,India 3.15,Draw 1.81
Trading point of view England odds are of bit value because panesar will bowl most of the overs after lunch and if he can get wicket or two England odds will down.As for our free lay today will it be Draw around 1.6 if comes.
Odds are England 7.2,India 3.15,Draw 1.81
Trading point of view England odds are of bit value because panesar will bowl most of the overs after lunch and if he can get wicket or two England odds will down.As for our free lay today will it be Draw around 1.6 if comes.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Selection,Timing And Exit Point
Daily P/L +£57.4
Mouthly P/L +£1137.1
Yesterday Pro40 cricket match between Gloucesteshire and Sussex was among few odi matches in which bat dominate ball most of the time.Although it was LJ Wright Sussex batsman who alone dominated Sussex chase.That was one of the best innings in recent time.I was in mid of the Sussex chase around £500 green on Gloucesteshire and £200 green on Sussex,So what went wrong that i finished with only £57 profit and even escaped red on Sussex?
I asked this question to myself and i find that though i plan ok to trade match(As Mentioned Inplay Post) in Sussex chase(Selection,Timing) but my exit point selection was poor.I may ended around £350 green any result.
Exit point is even more important when you are red any result.So i will try to impose some more strict rules on "Selection,Timing And Exit Point" on myself.
P.S.....
Good 'Free Lay' of the match was when Gloucesteshire batting and odds was 1.2 to lay around 30 over.Due to some pending work i decided to trade only in one inning that was Sussex chase and really i missed this good Free lay.
Mouthly P/L +£1137.1
Yesterday Pro40 cricket match between Gloucesteshire and Sussex was among few odi matches in which bat dominate ball most of the time.Although it was LJ Wright Sussex batsman who alone dominated Sussex chase.That was one of the best innings in recent time.I was in mid of the Sussex chase around £500 green on Gloucesteshire and £200 green on Sussex,So what went wrong that i finished with only £57 profit and even escaped red on Sussex?
I asked this question to myself and i find that though i plan ok to trade match(As Mentioned Inplay Post) in Sussex chase(Selection,Timing) but my exit point selection was poor.I may ended around £350 green any result.
Exit point is even more important when you are red any result.So i will try to impose some more strict rules on "Selection,Timing And Exit Point" on myself.
P.S.....
Good 'Free Lay' of the match was when Gloucesteshire batting and odds was 1.2 to lay around 30 over.Due to some pending work i decided to trade only in one inning that was Sussex chase and really i missed this good Free lay.
Monday, August 6, 2007
Todays match,Sussex/Gloucestershire,Pro40 Division one{Prematch Analysis}
Prematch odds
Favourite:Sussex 1.71
Plan A:
If Sussex bat first then lookin to lay them around 1.4x in first 15over.
Plan B:
If Sussex chase then i will try to update
.....Update 19:15pm BST
Gloucesteshire made 266/40 overs after winning the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are Gloucesteshire 1.36
Not involved so far in the match market as per plan.Now i will wait and watch Sussex chase and see if they bat well then how much Gloucesteshire will drift.Trading wise it will be better to take Gloucesteshire around 1.9 if comes after see required runrate and wickets at that time.
Favourite:Sussex 1.71
Plan A:
If Sussex bat first then lookin to lay them around 1.4x in first 15over.
Plan B:
If Sussex chase then i will try to update
.....Update 19:15pm BST
Gloucesteshire made 266/40 overs after winning the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are Gloucesteshire 1.36
Not involved so far in the match market as per plan.Now i will wait and watch Sussex chase and see if they bat well then how much Gloucesteshire will drift.Trading wise it will be better to take Gloucesteshire around 1.9 if comes after see required runrate and wickets at that time.
Sunday, August 5, 2007
Huge success for free lays
Monthly P/L +£1079.7
Twenty20 Finals which played on yesterday was not only good win for me but it is a huge success for free lays concept thats why the title of this post is "Huge success for free lays".
As you can see in our prematch homework i quoted "Generally market is very volatile in these matches and early short odds of any team(prematch or inplay) is good for lay it should be basic strategy for these matches" and also "It is my personal opinion that teams are almost equal in this format of cricket".
And we see it in both semifinals and final that favourite teams not among winners.
My P/L for 1st semifinal is +384.7 for 2nd +478.3 and for final it was +216.7
Not going to detail briefly what i do is lay teams in short odds when they were batting and then back them in high odds according to my money management.
Cheers for free lays.
Twenty20 Finals which played on yesterday was not only good win for me but it is a huge success for free lays concept thats why the title of this post is "Huge success for free lays".
As you can see in our prematch homework i quoted "Generally market is very volatile in these matches and early short odds of any team(prematch or inplay) is good for lay it should be basic strategy for these matches" and also "It is my personal opinion that teams are almost equal in this format of cricket".
And we see it in both semifinals and final that favourite teams not among winners.
My P/L for 1st semifinal is +384.7 for 2nd +478.3 and for final it was +216.7
Not going to detail briefly what i do is lay teams in short odds when they were batting and then back them in high odds according to my money management.
Cheers for free lays.
Saturday, August 4, 2007
The Final 4th August 2007, Twenty20 cup
What a cracking 2nd semifinal it was between Sussex and Kent.It is time for final now.Our strategy will be same but remember one thing that odds suggesting no clear cut favourite in market.It will be better to watch and then very selective entry into market.
2nd semifinal Kent/Sussex {Inplay}
Sussex after good start just lost 1st wicket.Before Nash out there odds was
1.2x that was good free lay.Watch for more.
1.2x that was good free lay.Watch for more.
1st Semifinal,Inplay Lancashire 148/20 overs
Good to see our plan worked in Lancashire inning.Now 149 is not a big score to chase.Will there be free lay if we have Gloucestershire odds at 1.2x wait and see.
.....Update:
Gloucestershire 72/1 after 9overs.There Odds now reached in 1.2x zone.But i would like to wait for further low odds and see what will be asking runrate after 13 overs and how many wickets in hand at that time.(offcourse waitin for murali magic)
.....Update:
Gloucestershire 72/1 after 9overs.There Odds now reached in 1.2x zone.But i would like to wait for further low odds and see what will be asking runrate after 13 overs and how many wickets in hand at that time.(offcourse waitin for murali magic)
Twenty20 Finals and our Prematch Homework
I am glad that blog is recieving good response.Many asked me that do i trade only in free lays.My answer to this question is that laying any selection means you are actually backing others and seeing value in them and free lay is term in which you are assuming that any selection which you layed is reached at point from where chances of that selection to go upward is more than downward.It is a golden rule of trading.So in free lays you are actually backing others but with a different approach than simple "Lay"
I was not involved in recently played pro40 matches.But after seeing scorecard and historic odds of match played between Hampshire and Nottinghamshire i must say there was plenty of free lay opportunities when Hampshire chasing 214 in reply.Hampshire opening was very good and at 88/0 there odds was 1.04
I like and wait for these situations.Although i might enter in that after fall of first wicket and then lay Hampshire at 1.09 because some gate must be opened.This match again proves our theory to lay chasing team in low odds.
Well now we come to our main topic of today that is Twenty20 Finals. Generally market is very volatile in these matches and early short odds of any team is good for lay and it should be basic strategy for these matches.It is my personal opinion that teams are almost equal in this format of cricket.Brief look at
1.Venue:Pitch type,D/N effect,Chasing records.All these can be find at cricinfo.com
2.Early odds
3.Market mood
4.Key players
5.Money management
6.Weather
Well in brief market mood is to go with Lancashire.And i'm hopeful to find free lays in Lancashire match and again my strategy will be lay them in low odds if comes while they batting/chasing.
I will try my best to update inplay.
Good wishes to all.
I was not involved in recently played pro40 matches.But after seeing scorecard and historic odds of match played between Hampshire and Nottinghamshire i must say there was plenty of free lay opportunities when Hampshire chasing 214 in reply.Hampshire opening was very good and at 88/0 there odds was 1.04
I like and wait for these situations.Although i might enter in that after fall of first wicket and then lay Hampshire at 1.09 because some gate must be opened.This match again proves our theory to lay chasing team in low odds.
Well now we come to our main topic of today that is Twenty20 Finals. Generally market is very volatile in these matches and early short odds of any team is good for lay and it should be basic strategy for these matches.It is my personal opinion that teams are almost equal in this format of cricket.Brief look at
1.Venue:Pitch type,D/N effect,Chasing records.All these can be find at cricinfo.com
2.Early odds
3.Market mood
4.Key players
5.Money management
6.Weather
Well in brief market mood is to go with Lancashire.And i'm hopeful to find free lays in Lancashire match and again my strategy will be lay them in low odds if comes while they batting/chasing.
I will try my best to update inplay.
Good wishes to all.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Future plan and my monthly P/L
first i want to clear my intention of this blog that it is not for any commercial purpose.I only want to do sports trading in disciplined way by it and if i can help little to those who suffered lot from sports trading losses i will be very pleased.
I personally benefited lot by other blog or sports trading tips time to time which i mentioned in my last post.
I know only time will tell that i succeed in it or not.
Everyone knows it well that only 1% in long term ever earned from sports trading.
But still many are doing it either for earning or fun and adventure.
£1k is very hard to earn and when people realize it they gone to far.
My goals:
1.Try to make this blog like open forum in which anyone can post there free lays finding in any match either inplay or prematch with logic and then others can pick them at their will.
2.Although most of the articles are related to cricket because i like it most but soon try to cover other major sports events also.
3.Soon people start their own group/forum in future on free lays and i will not feel bad if they dont feel need to visit my blog.
Monthly P/L and target:
As Mark Iverson has left a comment
Hi dip,
Thanks for dropping by and sorry for missing your previous comment :-) I've had a look at your blog and the content looks good.
It would be nice if you could include any targets you have or whether you finish the day/week/month in profit (this allows the reader to be able to follow your progress).
I hope this helps and good luck.
All the best,
Mark
I fully agree wit him and for this i copied "The betfair trader" money management of £1k and target from "one percent a day blog" Dont laugh i already mentioned it many times that i am nothing and only trying to follw great blogs and manage them at one place.
For august my target will be around £400.I will regular post my monthly P/L in august events which i got involved.
I will try my best to update regular in any event inplay that what i am doing
also comments will no be moderated so other can post their thoughts instantly.
Future events:
It is really funny that chances of free lays in cricket are more in either longest version of the game(Test matches) or the smallest version of game(Twenty20).
Presently there will be 3rd test between India and England from 9th august,2007
I am looking forward for Twenty20 world cup in september in which i might double my stake.
July P/L:+£754
I get involved in few selective matches and even in those matches mostly i enter when i see any good free lay opportunity.
For july P/L i am only taking those matches in which i was involved after start of this blog. Those were two matches 1st and 2nd test match between England and India.I will first take recent 2nd test:P/L +£422
In this i enter at day three when India odds was around 1.4x.I layed india and then back them all near
1.65.On day 4 i again enter and lay draw when it comes below
2.0 for some time on 4th day(as i mentioned in my previous posts) and luckily after few overs i got opportunity to green by either lay India or back draw at high price.
1st test:P/L +£332
Lay draw at 1.8x at the close of 3rd day and letter back at higher price.
One another match in which i was thinking to get involved was 3rd odi between Srilanka and Bangladesh but after start of play i was thinking to lay lanka around 1.08 after 2wickets but they bat really bad and these odds never come in first inning.
I personally benefited lot by other blog or sports trading tips time to time which i mentioned in my last post.
I know only time will tell that i succeed in it or not.
Everyone knows it well that only 1% in long term ever earned from sports trading.
But still many are doing it either for earning or fun and adventure.
£1k is very hard to earn and when people realize it they gone to far.
My goals:
1.Try to make this blog like open forum in which anyone can post there free lays finding in any match either inplay or prematch with logic and then others can pick them at their will.
2.Although most of the articles are related to cricket because i like it most but soon try to cover other major sports events also.
3.Soon people start their own group/forum in future on free lays and i will not feel bad if they dont feel need to visit my blog.
Monthly P/L and target:
As Mark Iverson has left a comment
Hi dip,
Thanks for dropping by and sorry for missing your previous comment :-) I've had a look at your blog and the content looks good.
It would be nice if you could include any targets you have or whether you finish the day/week/month in profit (this allows the reader to be able to follow your progress).
I hope this helps and good luck.
All the best,
Mark
I fully agree wit him and for this i copied "The betfair trader" money management of £1k and target from "one percent a day blog" Dont laugh i already mentioned it many times that i am nothing and only trying to follw great blogs and manage them at one place.
For august my target will be around £400.I will regular post my monthly P/L in august events which i got involved.
I will try my best to update regular in any event inplay that what i am doing
also comments will no be moderated so other can post their thoughts instantly.
Future events:
It is really funny that chances of free lays in cricket are more in either longest version of the game(Test matches) or the smallest version of game(Twenty20).
Presently there will be 3rd test between India and England from 9th august,2007
I am looking forward for Twenty20 world cup in september in which i might double my stake.
July P/L:+£754
I get involved in few selective matches and even in those matches mostly i enter when i see any good free lay opportunity.
For july P/L i am only taking those matches in which i was involved after start of this blog. Those were two matches 1st and 2nd test match between England and India.I will first take recent 2nd test:P/L +£422
In this i enter at day three when India odds was around 1.4x.I layed india and then back them all near
1.65.On day 4 i again enter and lay draw when it comes below
2.0 for some time on 4th day(as i mentioned in my previous posts) and luckily after few overs i got opportunity to green by either lay India or back draw at high price.
1st test:P/L +£332
Lay draw at 1.8x at the close of 3rd day and letter back at higher price.
One another match in which i was thinking to get involved was 3rd odi between Srilanka and Bangladesh but after start of play i was thinking to lay lanka around 1.08 after 2wickets but they bat really bad and these odds never come in first inning.
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