3rd Update
South Africa 209/50 overs.
Odds NZ 1.74
Plan is:
1.Lay NZ in 1.3x if comes in 1st 5 overs after flying start.
2.Back NZ at 2.1+ for quick trade upto first 2 wickets.
3.Lay NZ 1.2x in 1st 15 overs after 2 wicket as free lay.
4.Lay NZ 1.1x after 3 wickets with 100+ runs reqd. anytime.
Basically plan is to wait for some wickets then consider lay batting team in low odds.
Good luck.
................
2nd Update
SA 48/3 in 15 overs.
Odds NZ 1.74
Gates are totally opened.Consider back NZ 2.1+ if comes in next 10 overs as a good trading opportunity.This match looking like a low scoring match so best advise is to wait for 2nd innings for rest of trading unless you see very good trading opportunity as mentioned above or good free lay which will be SA 1.5x or below.
...............
1st Update
SA 18/2 in 6.4 overs.
Odds SA 1.87
Bad start and early filp flop.Because of this i always like short odds team to bat first.
Anyway now situation is tricky,one more wicket and New Zealand become favourites and very difficult recovery for SA.My advise is take profit now.Wait for some recovery then back SA 1.8+ if it looks they may score atleast 230.Lay SA 1.4x if comes before 25 overs as free lay.Good luck to all.
...............
Hello and welcome back.South Africa batting first and predicted target odds is:
SA bat first:
310 1.1x
290 1.2x
270 1.3x
250 1.5x
230 1.9x
210 2.3x
190 2.4x
so back SA 1.9+ or lay 1.3x whenever comes.
Remember it is a day nighter.
All the best.
Friday, November 30, 2007
India v Pakistan,2nd Test,Day 1 {Inplay}
1st Update (Lunch)
India 104/1 in 27 overs.
Odds India 2.04,Pakistan 21 and Draw 2.12
Layed India so far and want to continue it till they bat because i think they are not going to cut below 2.0 before Pakistan come to bat.
.................
Hello and welcome all.India won the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are India 2.22,Pakistan 6.2 and Draw 2.4
Laying India now and planning to lay more at evens or below.
Good luck.
India 104/1 in 27 overs.
Odds India 2.04,Pakistan 21 and Draw 2.12
Layed India so far and want to continue it till they bat because i think they are not going to cut below 2.0 before Pakistan come to bat.
.................
Hello and welcome all.India won the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are India 2.22,Pakistan 6.2 and Draw 2.4
Laying India now and planning to lay more at evens or below.
Good luck.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
India v Pakistan,2nd Test:1st Day Plan
Hello everyone,
Quick post:Tomorrow look for:
(A)If India bat first:
1.Back India 5+ or lay 2.1x and below.
2.Back Draw 3+ or lay 1.5x and below.
3.Back Pakistan 12+ or lay 2.6x and below.
...............
(B)If Pakistan bat first:
1.Back India 3.5+ or lay 1.6x and below.
2.Back Draw 4+ or lay 1.7x and below.
3.Back Pakistan 20+ or lay 3.5x and below.(whichever comes first basis,try to trade mainly on Draw odds)
May Update at lunch.Please send your plans.
All the best.
P.S:
I will try my best for 'Inplay post' in SA/NZ 2nd ODI Match (12:30 GMT) tomorrow with predicted target odds.
Quick post:Tomorrow look for:
(A)If India bat first:
1.Back India 5+ or lay 2.1x and below.
2.Back Draw 3+ or lay 1.5x and below.
3.Back Pakistan 12+ or lay 2.6x and below.
...............
(B)If Pakistan bat first:
1.Back India 3.5+ or lay 1.6x and below.
2.Back Draw 4+ or lay 1.7x and below.
3.Back Pakistan 20+ or lay 3.5x and below.(whichever comes first basis,try to trade mainly on Draw odds)
May Update at lunch.Please send your plans.
All the best.
P.S:
I will try my best for 'Inplay post' in SA/NZ 2nd ODI Match (12:30 GMT) tomorrow with predicted target odds.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Cricket Trading:Predicting Target Odds (Powerful Tool For 1st Innings Trading)
Hello friends,
Predict target odds is no doubt the most powerful tool for 1st innings trading for one-day and Twenty20 cricket matches(limited overs cricket).Applied it in past also but frankly realized true value after Twenty20 world cup.
How it works:
It works best when team batting first bat well in starting overs and one team is short priced.
For eg. South Africa prematch odds for 2nd ODI with New Zealand is 1.44 as favourites.Suppose SA bat first in this match and start well and score something like 40/0 in 6 overs than there odds will be shorten to 1.26 because market prediction is 280+ score at that time.So these odds are for 280+ score.Now two possibilities are there:
1.They continue to bat well and score 300 around and odds will shorten upto 1.20 without drift.
2.Wickets and slow rate mainly between 10-40 overs and odds drifted to 1.44 during that period when it is looking they are not going to score more than 260 which was the original prediction.
Generally it is seen that run rate drops in middle overs when spin bowlers operating with wickets.So if we lay SA at 1.26 when score was 40/0 in 6 overs chance of loss (if odds shorten which is generally maximum 6 ticks) is very low and chances of profit (if odds drifted) is more.
We can also apply this formula if New Zealand bat first and start well in start and SA odds drifts.
Pitch,ground size,teams strength and market mood are some other important factors for predict target odds.
I agree that it may go sometimes totally against us but it happens rarely and with strict stop loss plan we can minimize loss.
Try it in next match.
All the best.
Predict target odds is no doubt the most powerful tool for 1st innings trading for one-day and Twenty20 cricket matches(limited overs cricket).Applied it in past also but frankly realized true value after Twenty20 world cup.
How it works:
It works best when team batting first bat well in starting overs and one team is short priced.
For eg. South Africa prematch odds for 2nd ODI with New Zealand is 1.44 as favourites.Suppose SA bat first in this match and start well and score something like 40/0 in 6 overs than there odds will be shorten to 1.26 because market prediction is 280+ score at that time.So these odds are for 280+ score.Now two possibilities are there:
1.They continue to bat well and score 300 around and odds will shorten upto 1.20 without drift.
2.Wickets and slow rate mainly between 10-40 overs and odds drifted to 1.44 during that period when it is looking they are not going to score more than 260 which was the original prediction.
Generally it is seen that run rate drops in middle overs when spin bowlers operating with wickets.So if we lay SA at 1.26 when score was 40/0 in 6 overs chance of loss (if odds shorten which is generally maximum 6 ticks) is very low and chances of profit (if odds drifted) is more.
We can also apply this formula if New Zealand bat first and start well in start and SA odds drifts.
Pitch,ground size,teams strength and market mood are some other important factors for predict target odds.
I agree that it may go sometimes totally against us but it happens rarely and with strict stop loss plan we can minimize loss.
Try it in next match.
All the best.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Cricket Last Week:1.01 & 1.1x Just Escaped
Hello,
Last week 2 'Inplay' short odds selection which was South Africa at both occasions, 1.01(Twenty20) & 1.1x (ODI) against New Zealand anyhow managed to won in last.If we add India also in this list (they was traded at 1.3x on first day in Test against Pakistan and later drifted to 4+ on 3rd day),then we can say all short odds backers was in trouble last week.
The warning from these matches again is 'never back short odds' and there is nothing like free money in sports trading.
So avoid backing short odds in future.
Good luck.
Last week 2 'Inplay' short odds selection which was South Africa at both occasions, 1.01(Twenty20) & 1.1x (ODI) against New Zealand anyhow managed to won in last.If we add India also in this list (they was traded at 1.3x on first day in Test against Pakistan and later drifted to 4+ on 3rd day),then we can say all short odds backers was in trouble last week.
The warning from these matches again is 'never back short odds' and there is nothing like free money in sports trading.
So avoid backing short odds in future.
Good luck.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Volatile Market:Best Policy
Hello,
South Africa v New Zealand,1st ODI was a prefect match for free lays and volatile market policy.Not involved in this match and i know it is easy to say as a aftertimer that if i involved in it,traded like this or that and ended with profit.
But in today's post (India v Pakistan,Day 4 plan) if you remember my advise for 'volatile market' which was "if you see volatile market in last either leave it or lay any team in short odds and wait".
Although that was for Test match but i think it applies on all sports trading.
Why?
Market is volatile means short or low odds of any selection is drifting and high odds are shortening repeatedly.In brief frequent flip flops at death.
Still i think best policy is to avoid trade in volatile market but if we want to involve ( because of human tendency) and adopt this policy to lay any short odds and wait will pay us most of the times.Another good thing is chances of big loss is also minimum with it.
Try it next time with small money.
Bye bye
All the best.
South Africa v New Zealand,1st ODI was a prefect match for free lays and volatile market policy.Not involved in this match and i know it is easy to say as a aftertimer that if i involved in it,traded like this or that and ended with profit.
But in today's post (India v Pakistan,Day 4 plan) if you remember my advise for 'volatile market' which was "if you see volatile market in last either leave it or lay any team in short odds and wait".
Although that was for Test match but i think it applies on all sports trading.
Why?
Market is volatile means short or low odds of any selection is drifting and high odds are shortening repeatedly.In brief frequent flip flops at death.
Still i think best policy is to avoid trade in volatile market but if we want to involve ( because of human tendency) and adopt this policy to lay any short odds and wait will pay us most of the times.Another good thing is chances of big loss is also minimum with it.
Try it next time with small money.
Bye bye
All the best.
India v Pakistan,1st Test-Day 4 At Lunch (Quick Update)
India 3/1 in 4 overs,require another 200 runs.
Odds India 1.27
Plan:
1.Lay India around 1.20 with stop loss 5 ticks if comes just after lunch.
2.Wait for 1 more wicket in next 10 overs then lay India in 1.2x as free lay.
Good luck.
Odds India 1.27
Plan:
1.Lay India around 1.20 with stop loss 5 ticks if comes just after lunch.
2.Wait for 1 more wicket in next 10 overs then lay India in 1.2x as free lay.
Good luck.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
India v Pakistan,1st Test,4th Day Plan
Hello friends,
Quick post.
4th Day look for:
1.India at 1.3x-1.4x when they come to bat for free lay specially after 2 or 3 wickets.Like 150 runs reqd. With 7 wickets in hand.
2.Pakistan 4.5+ just after last wicket.
3.If you see volatile market in last either leave it or lay any team in short odds and wait.
4.Back India when they bat on 1st two wickets for quick trade.
5.Draw future:Any good solid partnership in Pakistan remaining innings will shorten draw again.So it will be risky to lay Draw at high odds,avoid it.
All the best.
Quick post.
4th Day look for:
1.India at 1.3x-1.4x when they come to bat for free lay specially after 2 or 3 wickets.Like 150 runs reqd. With 7 wickets in hand.
2.Pakistan 4.5+ just after last wicket.
3.If you see volatile market in last either leave it or lay any team in short odds and wait.
4.Back India when they bat on 1st two wickets for quick trade.
5.Draw future:Any good solid partnership in Pakistan remaining innings will shorten draw again.So it will be risky to lay Draw at high odds,avoid it.
All the best.
India v Pakistan,1st Test-3rd Day (Inplay)
Hello and welcome back.India 276 all out on 3rd day morning,lead by 45 runs.
Odds India 1.8,Pakistan 3.5,Draw 5
Plan is:
1.India odds will stay at 2.0-2.2 if Pakistan bat well in start for next 20-25 overs and cut by 0.5 on any wicket.I think back India at that time and then wait.
2.If Pakistan continue to bat well till tea then Draw will shorten upto 4 and Pakistan and India odds will stay around 2.5.
3.Look for India odds around 1.2x in Pakistan innings if comes after quick wickets.
4.Look for Pakistan odds 7+ and runs/lead at that time.
Good luck
Odds India 1.8,Pakistan 3.5,Draw 5
Plan is:
1.India odds will stay at 2.0-2.2 if Pakistan bat well in start for next 20-25 overs and cut by 0.5 on any wicket.I think back India at that time and then wait.
2.If Pakistan continue to bat well till tea then Draw will shorten upto 4 and Pakistan and India odds will stay around 2.5.
3.Look for India odds around 1.2x in Pakistan innings if comes after quick wickets.
4.Look for Pakistan odds 7+ and runs/lead at that time.
Good luck
Friday, November 23, 2007
South Africa v New Zealand,Only Twenty20 (Inplay)
3rd Update:
NZ 129 in 20 overs.
Odds SA 1.08
As i mentioned in 2nd update wait for some wickets and then enter like 60/3 in 8 overs and odds are 1.0x
Good luck to all of us.
.................
2nd Update:
NZ 79/5 in 12.4 overs.
Odds SA 1.12
Poor start from NZ best thing to do now is to wait for 2nd innings to watch SA odds in 1.0x at chase after couple of wickets.
...............
1st Update:
SA won the toss and elected to field first.Predict target odds is:
New zealand bat first:
230 2.4x
210 1.9x
190 1.7x
170 1.5x
150 1.2x
130 1.1x
There are SA odds at innings break.
So back SA 1.7+ if comes in 1st 10 overs and 1.8+ anytime.Also lay SA 1.34 or below anytime in 1st innings.
Present odds are 1.39
Thanks Betfairloser for plan.
Wish you all good luck.
...............
Hello and welcome to our T20 match 'Inplay Post'.
Just little bit of homework before start:
1.Venue:where SA chased successfuly 430+ against Aussies in ODI,so you can imagine ground size and pitch.
2.Weather:80% chances of rain.Little matters in T20.
3.Key Players:Martin and Jacob Oram not playing for NZ.
4.Market mood:Without doubt with SA. Prematch odds are 1.43 SA as favourites.I want SA to bat first at these odds.
I will update and post plan for 1st innings after toss and you're invited to post your strategy/plan for this match anytime to help each other.
Good luck.
NZ 129 in 20 overs.
Odds SA 1.08
As i mentioned in 2nd update wait for some wickets and then enter like 60/3 in 8 overs and odds are 1.0x
Good luck to all of us.
.................
2nd Update:
NZ 79/5 in 12.4 overs.
Odds SA 1.12
Poor start from NZ best thing to do now is to wait for 2nd innings to watch SA odds in 1.0x at chase after couple of wickets.
...............
1st Update:
SA won the toss and elected to field first.Predict target odds is:
New zealand bat first:
230 2.4x
210 1.9x
190 1.7x
170 1.5x
150 1.2x
130 1.1x
There are SA odds at innings break.
So back SA 1.7+ if comes in 1st 10 overs and 1.8+ anytime.Also lay SA 1.34 or below anytime in 1st innings.
Present odds are 1.39
Thanks Betfairloser for plan.
Wish you all good luck.
...............
Hello and welcome to our T20 match 'Inplay Post'.
Just little bit of homework before start:
1.Venue:where SA chased successfuly 430+ against Aussies in ODI,so you can imagine ground size and pitch.
2.Weather:80% chances of rain.Little matters in T20.
3.Key Players:Martin and Jacob Oram not playing for NZ.
4.Market mood:Without doubt with SA. Prematch odds are 1.43 SA as favourites.I want SA to bat first at these odds.
I will update and post plan for 1st innings after toss and you're invited to post your strategy/plan for this match anytime to help each other.
Good luck.
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