England v South Africa ,4th Test

Hello and welcome back.

This test match is going to start from tomorrow.Dead rubber and weather means draw heavy favourites but i don't think it will end as a draw.
But still i'm not laying draw because i may get 1.7x very early.
So wait and watch game.
We are covering this test in live trading room.We profited in 4 test matches in a row.
Although there were some losses also and when i carefully examined the results (2 main losses) i found :

1.Loss at value :

Well in 1st test of this series (Lord's) England were value at 1.5+ on day 4 but SA batted exceptionaly well.

2.Refusal of green up position :

In one match our book position was really good but we didn't green up at time and eventually loss in end because of unexpected result.
This was the first time when i think of let win trade run logic but it failed.
Frankly stop loss or let win trade run debate is always going to bother traders but imo try to take profit or cover liability whenever you get chance especially in a volatile market.



Anyway we bounced back very well after these defeats.
What we learn from loss is most important because that is the first step of profit.
Small consistent win are important than one big win followed by almost equal loss.

Now we've adopted a strict money management and i hope from that we may prevent big loss in future.
Also i noticed that we suffered loss mostly due to 4th innings trading.

Test matches are very good for trading in first 3 days or first 3 innings.
There is big chances of volatile market in 4th innings or last day of the match.
Let's hope enough lessons learnt and from that i can say we may not suffer any moderate loss in future fingers crossed.

If you want to join us in live trading room then visit tradeoncricket.com for details.

All the best.

Test Matches Trading Update

Well a very good result for us in live cricket trading room in England v South Africa ,3rd Test and touchwood India v Lanka match trading is also going very well.

England v South Africa ,3rd Test was real pleasure to watch and it was cricket who won in last.
It was the real test of nerves.
England fought back very well and at one stage they were looking most likely winners.

All three selection traded as odds on and 10+
I will post trades and P/L of this match later as last few days were very hectic.
..................

India v Sri Lanka ,2nd Test :

Match in very good situation now and any result is possible.
India lead by 237 runs and i think today on 4th day India 1.5 or below may prove good freelay till they bat and back Lanka 7+ is going to be a very good trading opportunity.

Weather is also a concern so if India bat well today then Draw may shorten significantly.

Good luck and all the best.

Green Effect:Maximize Your Profit

Last Week P/L +£764.1
Monthly P/L +£1118.9
Traded on 3 matches last week:
1.India v Pakistan,5th ODI +£460.7
2.Australia v Sri Lanka 2nd Test +£74.8
3.South Africa v Newzealand,2nd Test +£228.5
Hello friends.
First same boring thing again which is to post P/L but because Mark Everson advised it to post it regular on weekly/monthly basis,so that those who wants to follow plans in this blog feel more comfortable.Fully agree with Mark advise thus posting it again today although always feels boring specially when most of my trading is live or inplay.
Due to my illness from last 10-12 days.I'm restricted to home which means full time for trading but for selected period as i feel exhausted after little work.
I prepared this post also in many parts before posting in bed on my Nokia mobile.
Traded on 2 Test matches and 1 ODI,not posting in detail of every match trading (seperate inplay posts are there for every match).
Only highlight some changes i applied in these matches mainly towards end after seen a post in betfairtrader blog (frankly understand it very late) or i can say copying some of his style.
I named it 'Green effect' by this we can increase our profits if our book allows mainly towards end.
For example my book was all green in 5th ODI most of the time and when it was clear that Pakistan is in strong position to win this match after 4 and 5 wickets i backed Pakistan from my India green at 1.5x and some extra at 1.3x respectively and set stop loss point.There was two reasons to do this at that time:
1.I backed these odds and on both occasions chances of drift is less and slow means i've taken a value (considering req runs,run rate & wickets at that time)
2.My book is now moderate green Pakistan and small red India so stop loss and bail out points are much higher which is overall safe book.
Thanks once again to BFT.This strategy shown increase in profit (tried on test matches also) and may be continue to try it on 1.2x-1.5x range odds this month,if i think there is value and my book allowing but mainly on bowling team odds towards end because it will be risky for batting team odds which drifts dramatically on wickets.
I know it is risky and chances of big loss anytime but for this i'm going to set stake size for these odds towards end.
And lastly copy a master is easy but to be a master is difficult :-).
All the best.
P.S:
It looks same 2 posts one rough and other full proof posted at same time due to some technical problem.Removed rough post now and sorry for that error.
;-)

4th ODI Review

This is South Africa price change today so far on day one of 2nd Test Match.(2 pm G.M.T)
(Upto Score:New Zealand 187/8 in 56.0 ov)
(From odds.bestbetting.com)
Current odds are SA 1.38


Hello and welcome back.
Sorry for no inplay post today.As I'm having some difficulty in Internet connection.
Trading on SA/NZ match and planning to lay again at 1.3x

Posting below my P/L and 4th ODI review.
Yesterday P/L £122.6
Monthly P/L £354.8

Traded 2 ODI's and 2 Test matches this month so far.In Test matches i closed my position on day 1 due to reasons which i mentioned before very early with 14.5 profit in Australia v Sri Lanka 1st test and 30.6 green any result on SA/NZ test.
Traded fully on 1st and 4th ODI between Pakistan and India.
4th ODI 1st inning was boring from trading point of view.All you can do is to back India at evens and let it run but it was risky from my point of view because it was a day/night match and Afridi and Kamran Akmal coming in lower order there was chances of 280+ score.
Anyway i traded in 2nd innings lay India in 1.4x and backed all with top-up at 1.6x in 1st 10 overs.In 11-20 overs again layed India at 1.4x with my India green but Tendulkar was in great touch and i stop loss for this trade at 10 ticks and waited for some wickets for further trade.After 3rd wicket i was planning to lay India at 1.1x but before i could do anything Tendulkar got out.
Now India odds again drifted to 1.3x but i dislike backing batting team in low odds.Finally i layed India at 1.12 to make my book green on any result.
Good Luck.

Hottest Tip For Trading Sports

Monthly P/L +£1487.8
Traded on least matches this month since start of blog.Busy days so obviously less 'Inplay posts' also.
As i said before i reduced my stakes to make me comfortable most of the times.Biggest profit (around 800) this month came in 2nd Test match between South Africa and Pakistan.In that 'Best Free Lay Of Month' which was South Africa at 1.4x in their 2nd innings i found.Because there was no reason that it may shorten more than 1.40 till SA bat.So it was almost 90 overs free lay and eventually drifted to 1.9x in middle.
Rest is of ODI matches with loss in 2 and profit in 4 matches and net P/L of one-days is 680.5 but good thing is that loss was not more than 150 in any match.
Bad thing is that loss in those matches came because due to shortage of time i involved at death with no planning.Anyway losses has always excuses and the main thing is what we learn from them.
Coming to the main topic 'Hottest Tip' :
I nowdays applying it on all cricket matches in which i trade and that is while seeing matches live on T.V i switch off the volume means no sound (mute) and it is working well from trading point of view by:
1.Cool and comfort>it is more in crunch/tense situation in match to make plan.
2.F3 Gland>Fear,fight and flight or adrenaline effect is less without sound like when you see any wicket or four and six in match and that is going against you.
Main thing is mind is more relaxed while we are not listening crowd roar or commentators rubbish hence chances of wrong trades are decreased because you can asses situation and make better plans while trading on sports.
It has a psychological impact and i think this tip will work on all sports.Try it and then tell me results.
All the best.

Oops! We Did It Again

Twenty20 Final P/L +£510.1

Perfect finish in the last of this unpredictable version of cricket.Not clear till last ball who is going to be winner.
Congratulations to India.
Tournament Review

Good results for us in trading matches specially after some matches played.
'Predicting target odds' great redefined formula worked in most of the matches in first innings when batting team performed well in start.Policy to avoid backing of short odds of any team anytime in the match prevented any big loss in whole tournament.Lay of bat team in low odds while chasing worked as always.
Going for short break.
Bye bye

Confidence Back On Track

Yesterday P/L +£565.6
Yesterday was most satisfactory day in Twenty20 World Cup for me so far and 'Predicting Target Odds' formula for 1st innings in matches which i traded (India v Nz and England V Sa) worked well.Ended up with profit of 426.6 in Newzealand/India match and 138.9 in South africa/England match and no trading in Australia v Bangladesh match.I was really conscious to trade in 1st innings as planning was not going well in tournament.
Not going in detail because everything is in 'Inplay Posts' or prematch plan.
Newzealand Odds in range 1.5x was good free lay in 1st innings of their match against India and 2.4+ odds of South africa was good to back in their match against England when it was looking that score is going to be near about 150.
2nd innings was as usual as before in both matches although traded little in 2nd innings after good first innings.
P.S:
My advise is that it will be better to minimize stakes in these matches to gain more because markets are very volatile.I reduced my stakes more than 50% that helped me to stay cool and 'wait and watch time' is also increased.Everyone knows that there are flip flop in most of the Twenty20 matches but frankly how many layed India heavily including myself in 1.2x in there chase against NZ or England in innings break at 1.71 against South africa.The answer is very few but imagine if you are laying them for 100 in 1.2x or 1.7x according to plan then liability is less which gives you much more wait and watch time and peace of mind.
Twenty20 is dangerous put your small money on it unless you find good free lay or very good trading opportunity and never back short odds of any team in the match.Today is only one match.Srilanka v Pakistan and i will probably going to miss that but those who wants to trade in this match keep in mind 'Predicting Target Odds' in 1st innings and by that i can say if Pakistan bat first back Lanka 1.9+ whenever it comes or if Lanka bat first assume their odds in 150-230 range and post here as comments.
My opinion is try to find free lay early in 1.2 to 1.3 range if Lanka bats first and there is flying start because only Jayasurya wicket will drift Lanka odds by 20 ticks.
Waiting for your comments.
Thats all for now.
Good bye and best of luck.