Hello everyone,
Good days because no international cricket around these days means beer,food and normal work.This is the last day of this month in which we seen international cricket all in sub-continent.Home sides (asian teams) Sri Lanka,India and Pakistan lost series to their opponents.Although only Pakistan played test series also.Sri Lanka v England one-day series result was not anticipated by many.
Anyway lets come to cricket trading facts which remained intact in all series are:
One day's>Market mood was to go with Australia,Lanka and Africa with their opponents which was India,England and Pakistan respectively and in those one-day's whenever these favourite teams comes to bat first there was very good free lay and trading opportunities mainly after good start or flying start.Don't know each match detail but from my memory Australia traded at 1.4x or 1.5x after good start (first ten overs) in atleast three matches and in middle of the innings (15 to 35 overs) they drifted to 2.5+
in all or two matches.Fact remains is that whenever short odds team bat first and having good start lay them in 1.3x-1.5x zone and then sit relax because these odds generally not shorten further.This is basic of my 1st innings trade which i called as 'Predict Target Odds' so always wait for these situations.For 2nd innings trade once again there was good free lays and trading opportunities when batting team odds reached to low zone specially in high or low score chase in day/night matches.Basically the biggest fact in cricket trading is that always try to find opportunity to oppose batting team in low odds which is obviously backing bowling team at value and than book profit in parts.Lay/back plan may be different according to situation but try to make them in advance in these situations like if it is only 1st or 2nd wicket is gone than back all on batting team and may consider some top-up for eg. lay in 1.2x then back all plus some more (20%) on 1.4x after initial couple of wickets.
Another big fact is never back batting team in short odds.In this you may earn in 80% but loss in 20% will be so heavy that it may be more than the profit in 80% matches.
Good bye for now.In next post i will take Test Cricket Trading facts.
All the best.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Monday, October 29, 2007
Follow Us,Guide Us And Together We Will Beat Bookies
5th ODI P/L +£1474.8
Monthly P/L +£2904.9
Wow what a result.Not in condition to tell more but only one thing never back short odds of batting team only lay them.You may loss in 50% but cover it all in only one match.
Bye for now tomorrow i will tell you some interesting facts about cricket trading in new post.
Thanks for regular visit.
Monthly P/L +£2904.9
Wow what a result.Not in condition to tell more but only one thing never back short odds of batting team only lay them.You may loss in 50% but cover it all in only one match.
Bye for now tomorrow i will tell you some interesting facts about cricket trading in new post.
Thanks for regular visit.
Pakistan v South Africa,5th ODI {Inplay}
4th ODI P/L -£70.4
Monthly P/L +£1430
Hello and welcome back.Ooh loss in 4th ODI for us but as our main strategy is to lay batting team in low odds works mostly I'm not too worried.
Today is 5th ODI and series score is 2-2 so it may be a cracker.
SA won the toss and elected to bat first.Score is now 21/1 in 4 overs.Odds are Pakistan 1.77 as favourites.My first inning plan by 'predict target odds' is:
SA bat first:
310 1.3x
290 1.4x
270 1.5x
250 1.7x
230 2.2x
210 2.8x
These are SA odds.Pitch is not looking 300+ so lay SA in 1.5x if comes anytime in 1st 35 overs.
Good luck
Monthly P/L +£1430
Hello and welcome back.Ooh loss in 4th ODI for us but as our main strategy is to lay batting team in low odds works mostly I'm not too worried.
Today is 5th ODI and series score is 2-2 so it may be a cracker.
SA won the toss and elected to bat first.Score is now 21/1 in 4 overs.Odds are Pakistan 1.77 as favourites.My first inning plan by 'predict target odds' is:
SA bat first:
310 1.3x
290 1.4x
270 1.5x
250 1.7x
230 2.2x
210 2.8x
These are SA odds.Pitch is not looking 300+ so lay SA in 1.5x if comes anytime in 1st 35 overs.
Good luck
Friday, October 26, 2007
South Africa v Pakistan,4th ODI {Inplay}
South Africa 86/1 in 14 overs.
Odds SA 1.10
'Is it free lay of the month'.
................
2nd Update
Pakistan 230/9 50 overs.
Odds SA 1.49
Plan is to wait and see SA odds in 1.2x zone when comes and run rate and wickets at that time.But if it comes in 1st 5 overs due to good start lay it.Good trading opportunity will be to back SA 1.8+ if comes early after any wicket for a quick trade because target is not much more.
Good luck
...............
1st Update
Pak 65/3 19 overs.
Odds 1.47>SA
Bad start for Pakistan.This is the crucial stage of the match.
Main plan is to wait for 2nd inning as always because it is looking a low score match and i always like to see batting team in short odds in 2nd innings to lay.For 1st inning trading opportunity wait for 1.2x or 1.7x odds of SA to lay in first case and back in second case if comes.
..............
Yesterday P/L +£12.6
Monthly P/L +£1500.4
Hello and very warm welcome to our 4th ODI inplay post.Match will start at 08:30 GMT because today is friday.Pakistan leading the series 2-1 not anticipated by many.Odds are 1.85 SA as favourites.
So far in series key thing is spin bowling by Pakistan in middle overs and Saffers find it difficult to get away.
So if SA bat first consider lay them around 1.6x in 15 overs if comes at score 50/1 or 80/2.
If Pak bat first and Afridi opens try to take advantage like if flying start than lay Pakistan 1.6x if comes in 10 overs.I will update as soon as i get news on pitch and teams.
Good luck.
Odds SA 1.10
'Is it free lay of the month'.
................
2nd Update
Pakistan 230/9 50 overs.
Odds SA 1.49
Plan is to wait and see SA odds in 1.2x zone when comes and run rate and wickets at that time.But if it comes in 1st 5 overs due to good start lay it.Good trading opportunity will be to back SA 1.8+ if comes early after any wicket for a quick trade because target is not much more.
Good luck
...............
1st Update
Pak 65/3 19 overs.
Odds 1.47>SA
Bad start for Pakistan.This is the crucial stage of the match.
Main plan is to wait for 2nd inning as always because it is looking a low score match and i always like to see batting team in short odds in 2nd innings to lay.For 1st inning trading opportunity wait for 1.2x or 1.7x odds of SA to lay in first case and back in second case if comes.
..............
Yesterday P/L +£12.6
Monthly P/L +£1500.4
Hello and very warm welcome to our 4th ODI inplay post.Match will start at 08:30 GMT because today is friday.Pakistan leading the series 2-1 not anticipated by many.Odds are 1.85 SA as favourites.
So far in series key thing is spin bowling by Pakistan in middle overs and Saffers find it difficult to get away.
So if SA bat first consider lay them around 1.6x in 15 overs if comes at score 50/1 or 80/2.
If Pak bat first and Afridi opens try to take advantage like if flying start than lay Pakistan 1.6x if comes in 10 overs.I will update as soon as i get news on pitch and teams.
Good luck.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
India Blue v India Red,Challenger Trophy,25 October 2007 {Inplay}
Hello and welcome to our India domestic one-day tournament 1st match inplay.Not a long tournament only 3 teams which will play each other one game than 2 teams will qualify for final on the basis of points/run rate.
Today is the first match between India Blue and India Red (Don't know much about the teams as big players are not playing although read reviews at cricinfo.com and by that I'm taking them as equal teams).
Pitch report is that it is full of runs ( 270+) There will be due factor later on also all matches will be played at same ground and all are day/night.
India blue won the toss and elected to bat first.Score is 46/4 in 14 overs and odds are 1.28 India Red as favourites.
Not much opportunity at this time but if some recovery by India Blue like 80/4 then i will consider lay around 1.3x with back plan at 1.6x if comes.
It is looking a low score match and there may be good free lays/trading opportunities in 2nd inning.So main trading will be in 2nd inning as always (liquidity will be also better at that time).
Good luck to all.
Today is the first match between India Blue and India Red (Don't know much about the teams as big players are not playing although read reviews at cricinfo.com and by that I'm taking them as equal teams).
Pitch report is that it is full of runs ( 270+) There will be due factor later on also all matches will be played at same ground and all are day/night.
India blue won the toss and elected to bat first.Score is 46/4 in 14 overs and odds are 1.28 India Red as favourites.
Not much opportunity at this time but if some recovery by India Blue like 80/4 then i will consider lay around 1.3x with back plan at 1.6x if comes.
It is looking a low score match and there may be good free lays/trading opportunities in 2nd inning.So main trading will be in 2nd inning as always (liquidity will be also better at that time).
Good luck to all.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Hottest Tip For Trading Sports
Monthly P/L +£1487.8
Traded on least matches this month since start of blog.Busy days so obviously less 'Inplay posts' also.
As i said before i reduced my stakes to make me comfortable most of the times.Biggest profit (around 800) this month came in 2nd Test match between South Africa and Pakistan.In that 'Best Free Lay Of Month' which was South Africa at 1.4x in their 2nd innings i found.Because there was no reason that it may shorten more than 1.40 till SA bat.So it was almost 90 overs free lay and eventually drifted to 1.9x in middle.
Rest is of ODI matches with loss in 2 and profit in 4 matches and net P/L of one-days is 680.5 but good thing is that loss was not more than 150 in any match.
Bad thing is that loss in those matches came because due to shortage of time i involved at death with no planning.Anyway losses has always excuses and the main thing is what we learn from them.
Coming to the main topic 'Hottest Tip' :
I nowdays applying it on all cricket matches in which i trade and that is while seeing matches live on T.V i switch off the volume means no sound (mute) and it is working well from trading point of view by:
1.Cool and comfort>it is more in crunch/tense situation in match to make plan.
2.F3 Gland>Fear,fight and flight or adrenaline effect is less without sound like when you see any wicket or four and six in match and that is going against you.
Main thing is mind is more relaxed while we are not listening crowd roar or commentators rubbish hence chances of wrong trades are decreased because you can asses situation and make better plans while trading on sports.
It has a psychological impact and i think this tip will work on all sports.Try it and then tell me results.
All the best.
Traded on least matches this month since start of blog.Busy days so obviously less 'Inplay posts' also.
As i said before i reduced my stakes to make me comfortable most of the times.Biggest profit (around 800) this month came in 2nd Test match between South Africa and Pakistan.In that 'Best Free Lay Of Month' which was South Africa at 1.4x in their 2nd innings i found.Because there was no reason that it may shorten more than 1.40 till SA bat.So it was almost 90 overs free lay and eventually drifted to 1.9x in middle.
Rest is of ODI matches with loss in 2 and profit in 4 matches and net P/L of one-days is 680.5 but good thing is that loss was not more than 150 in any match.
Bad thing is that loss in those matches came because due to shortage of time i involved at death with no planning.Anyway losses has always excuses and the main thing is what we learn from them.
Coming to the main topic 'Hottest Tip' :
I nowdays applying it on all cricket matches in which i trade and that is while seeing matches live on T.V i switch off the volume means no sound (mute) and it is working well from trading point of view by:
1.Cool and comfort>it is more in crunch/tense situation in match to make plan.
2.F3 Gland>Fear,fight and flight or adrenaline effect is less without sound like when you see any wicket or four and six in match and that is going against you.
Main thing is mind is more relaxed while we are not listening crowd roar or commentators rubbish hence chances of wrong trades are decreased because you can asses situation and make better plans while trading on sports.
It has a psychological impact and i think this tip will work on all sports.Try it and then tell me results.
All the best.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Pakistan v South Africa,2nd ODI {Inplay}
4th Update
SA 60/2 from 12 overs.
Odds Pak 1.85
I'm waiting for SA odds in low zone:1.7x for quick trade and 1.2x for free lay if comes.
................
3rd Update
Pak 265/9 in 50.0 over (Innings break)
Odds SA 1.73
Bang on target again as 1st inning plan gone well.
Now 2nd inning plan is to wait for bat/chasing team in low odds like 1.2x and wickets/run rate at that time.Good trading opportunity will be if South Africa got electric start than lay them in 1.38-1.42 in 1st 10 overs.Remember it is a day/night game so chase will be not so easy.
All the best.
................
2nd Update
Pakistan 171/3 in 36 overs.
Odds Pak 1.83
In 1st Update i advised lay Pakistan 1.82 or below now you can see after 7 overs odds are same.It is called 'free lay'.
................
1st Update
Pakistan 141/3 in 29 overs.
Odds Pak 1.82
Market predicting score 270-280 range.Lay Pak now for small and if comes in 1.7x lay some more then wait.
................
Hello and morning all.Pakistan won the toss and elected to bat first.Just a reminder it is the same venue where 1st ODI played and a day/night match.
1st Inning plan by 'Predict Target Odds' is:
Pakistan bat first
310 1.6x
290 1.8x
270 evens
250 2.6
230 3.8x
210 5.0x
so lay Pak if comes in 1.7x zone.For good trading opportunity back SA at 2.0 if comes in 1st ten overs.
Good luck
SA 60/2 from 12 overs.
Odds Pak 1.85
I'm waiting for SA odds in low zone:1.7x for quick trade and 1.2x for free lay if comes.
................
3rd Update
Pak 265/9 in 50.0 over (Innings break)
Odds SA 1.73
Bang on target again as 1st inning plan gone well.
Now 2nd inning plan is to wait for bat/chasing team in low odds like 1.2x and wickets/run rate at that time.Good trading opportunity will be if South Africa got electric start than lay them in 1.38-1.42 in 1st 10 overs.Remember it is a day/night game so chase will be not so easy.
All the best.
................
2nd Update
Pakistan 171/3 in 36 overs.
Odds Pak 1.83
In 1st Update i advised lay Pakistan 1.82 or below now you can see after 7 overs odds are same.It is called 'free lay'.
................
1st Update
Pakistan 141/3 in 29 overs.
Odds Pak 1.82
Market predicting score 270-280 range.Lay Pak now for small and if comes in 1.7x lay some more then wait.
................
Hello and morning all.Pakistan won the toss and elected to bat first.Just a reminder it is the same venue where 1st ODI played and a day/night match.
1st Inning plan by 'Predict Target Odds' is:
Pakistan bat first
310 1.6x
290 1.8x
270 evens
250 2.6
230 3.8x
210 5.0x
so lay Pak if comes in 1.7x zone.For good trading opportunity back SA at 2.0 if comes in 1st ten overs.
Good luck
Friday, October 19, 2007
What Is Free Lay And Why It Exists:Reconstructed
Hello and welcome back.It is officially now that this blog is on cricket trading.When i started this blog i want to cover some other sports on which i sometimes trade but i found it difficult to get in at micro level like cricket,so i dropped idea to cover other sports.
I love cricket to watch and play.I likes to loft balls out of the ground and a handy medium fast bowler on club/college level. :-)
Nowdays plays less due to busy schedules.
So basically I'm a cricket lover.That's why i decided to trade only on cricket.
Now come to the main topic that what is 'Free Lays' and why it 'Exists'
Although i posted it before but i want a repost on it or a reminder post.
What Is Free Lay:
Free lay is the odds generally short which have great potential of upward move than downward move and best range is 1.2x to 1.4x zone.It may shorten but not more than 20% and may remained unchanged for a long period inplay or prematch.
For eg. any team chasing 280 in 50 over match and at some stage like 30 overs is 151/3 and odds are 1.25
Equation is:
130 runs needed in 20 overs at 6.5/over
Most of the times it looks easy but if you follow cricket it seldom happened swiftly like chasing team wins one way after 3 wickets in high chase games.like i said odds may reach to 1.1x zone but any wicket or maiden over and odds back in 1.2x zone and if 2 0r 3 quick wickets at that time then flip flop happens.
It was just a example of a oneday (50 over) game and these 'Free Lays' we may find in any form of cricket at many occasions.
Although as i said many times chances are more in high or low chase matches and most of the times it is in batting team low odds.
Take another example:
1st Innings free lays by predict target odds:
Recently played ODI series between India and Australia whenever Aussies bat first and had flying start there odds reaches in 1.3x zone simply because market mood is that they will score more than 300+ and win from here like 70/1 after 12 overs.
They won from these positions except last match (7th ODI) but there odds reached from 1.3x to 2.0+ in most matches.
So if you understand the basic that at 1.3x 'that was the lowest odds probably which market will offer' if they continue bat well from 70/1 score.
Australia scored 300+ in most of the matches but after some Hiccups or difficulty like lost wickets in middle.
I hope you understand my point.
Why Free Lay Exists:
Answer to this question is simple i think:
1.World betting market open odds for any event for *End result* what is most likely.During inplay it is also seen.
2.Large people still bet for outcome or most likely result of an event.
Because of this Willhill,Stanjames,paddypower still running.So can they offer 1.8+ on Australia when Australia and india playing at start?Definitely not.
These are two simple reasons that why free lay opportunity exists either inplay or prematch.It is up to you to find it.
P.S:
This blog is mainly on cricket but there must be 'Free Lays' opportunities in other sports like Tennis,Football or Rugby etc. also exists.If you trade on them try to find them by your experiences.
That's all for now please send your suggestions/comments on how to find Free Lays. :-)
See you tomorrow.
Good day and best of luck.
I love cricket to watch and play.I likes to loft balls out of the ground and a handy medium fast bowler on club/college level. :-)
Nowdays plays less due to busy schedules.
So basically I'm a cricket lover.That's why i decided to trade only on cricket.
Now come to the main topic that what is 'Free Lays' and why it 'Exists'
Although i posted it before but i want a repost on it or a reminder post.
What Is Free Lay:
Free lay is the odds generally short which have great potential of upward move than downward move and best range is 1.2x to 1.4x zone.It may shorten but not more than 20% and may remained unchanged for a long period inplay or prematch.
For eg. any team chasing 280 in 50 over match and at some stage like 30 overs is 151/3 and odds are 1.25
Equation is:
130 runs needed in 20 overs at 6.5/over
Most of the times it looks easy but if you follow cricket it seldom happened swiftly like chasing team wins one way after 3 wickets in high chase games.like i said odds may reach to 1.1x zone but any wicket or maiden over and odds back in 1.2x zone and if 2 0r 3 quick wickets at that time then flip flop happens.
It was just a example of a oneday (50 over) game and these 'Free Lays' we may find in any form of cricket at many occasions.
Although as i said many times chances are more in high or low chase matches and most of the times it is in batting team low odds.
Take another example:
1st Innings free lays by predict target odds:
Recently played ODI series between India and Australia whenever Aussies bat first and had flying start there odds reaches in 1.3x zone simply because market mood is that they will score more than 300+ and win from here like 70/1 after 12 overs.
They won from these positions except last match (7th ODI) but there odds reached from 1.3x to 2.0+ in most matches.
So if you understand the basic that at 1.3x 'that was the lowest odds probably which market will offer' if they continue bat well from 70/1 score.
Australia scored 300+ in most of the matches but after some Hiccups or difficulty like lost wickets in middle.
I hope you understand my point.
Why Free Lay Exists:
Answer to this question is simple i think:
1.World betting market open odds for any event for *End result* what is most likely.During inplay it is also seen.
2.Large people still bet for outcome or most likely result of an event.
Because of this Willhill,Stanjames,paddypower still running.So can they offer 1.8+ on Australia when Australia and india playing at start?Definitely not.
These are two simple reasons that why free lay opportunity exists either inplay or prematch.It is up to you to find it.
P.S:
This blog is mainly on cricket but there must be 'Free Lays' opportunities in other sports like Tennis,Football or Rugby etc. also exists.If you trade on them try to find them by your experiences.
That's all for now please send your suggestions/comments on how to find Free Lays. :-)
See you tomorrow.
Good day and best of luck.
A Quick Update
Hello and sorry for no post/inplay after October 14, 2007
My busy days with work and hopefully i will post inplay posts for tomorrow's 2nd ODI Pak/SA and Twenty20 India/Aus
Thanks for regular visit.
My busy days with work and hopefully i will post inplay posts for tomorrow's 2nd ODI Pak/SA and Twenty20 India/Aus
Thanks for regular visit.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
India v Australia,6th ODI {Inplay}
1st Update
Ausralia 311/6 49 overs
Odds Australia 1.25
..........
Hello and welcome.Just log in Australia 98/2 after 15 overs.
Odds are 1.41 Aus
Laying them as it may not go below 1.36 next 15 overs.
Good luck
Ausralia 311/6 49 overs
Odds Australia 1.25
courtesy odds.bestbetting.com
This is Australia price in last 3 hours.
Check it for free lay in 1.3x-1.4x zone in start.
2nd Inning plan is same as before that if india do well in start back Australia 1.8+ if comes in first 10 overs and if they continue to bat well try to find free lay in 1.3x if comes with wickets and run rate at that time.Other thing is Austrlia odds may shorten upto 1.1x if quick wickets in start and consider quick trade opportunity like lay 1.14 then back at 1.25 upto first 2 wickets.
Our 1st inning trade gone well so i will play now with low stakes unless really good free lay which is possible only if India bat well.
..........
Hello and welcome.Just log in Australia 98/2 after 15 overs.
Odds are 1.41 Aus
Laying them as it may not go below 1.36 next 15 overs.
Good luck
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
