We today saw a well deserved win for India in second test by seven wickets.Before going further i want to thank all of them from whom i get valuable advice from time to time and share them with you.
-Betfair trader
He is my hero,guru whatever you can call.I got all basic idea for this blog from his posts in his blog http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com
I also learnt a lot from there about money management,value of green and disciplined trading etc.
-Iain fletcher
From http://www.totalgambler.com
He is having great knowledge of trading sports and his advices are always valuable.
-bettingzone.co.uk
This site always provide indepth analysis.
-Ed hawkins
Sensible person
-Simon cambers
from cricinfo.com his 'calls' are always of great value because they are rarely right.
Last but not the least "ANDREW BLAKE" Cofounder betfair.com because of him these back and lay system or xchange betting opportunities we have.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
2nd test day four summary
Lets have a look on 4th day of 2nd test.There is draw hangover from the start of match till last because of delay start on 1st day and weather effect on last test.One thing about which i confident was before the start of 4th day that in this test chances of draw from here are less than any team win although chances of India win is more.So draw will not cut more from a point i also mentioned it in my last post.What i was lookin was to Lay draw if it comes
1.9 Silver 'Free lay'
1.5 Golden 'Free lay'
1.2 Platinum 'Free lay'
There was only one opportunity at 1.9 as Silver 'Free lay' I had. Why i was thinking so because
England was 280/3 in 80 overs and still 135 overs remaining so if England will bat 50 overs more and score near 200 then India had 85 overs to get them and it may go either way other than 'Draw' you can assume if England bat for 60 or 70 than what will be situation then.
So if draw comes to
1.5 it will fix at that and England odds start to change dramatically.
Well i know anything possible in cricket but dont forget we are here for talking only 'Free lays'
1.9 Silver 'Free lay'
1.5 Golden 'Free lay'
1.2 Platinum 'Free lay'
There was only one opportunity at 1.9 as Silver 'Free lay' I had. Why i was thinking so because
England was 280/3 in 80 overs and still 135 overs remaining so if England will bat 50 overs more and score near 200 then India had 85 overs to get them and it may go either way other than 'Draw' you can assume if England bat for 60 or 70 than what will be situation then.
So if draw comes to
1.5 it will fix at that and England odds start to change dramatically.
Well i know anything possible in cricket but dont forget we are here for talking only 'Free lays'
Monday, July 30, 2007
Update 2nd test,4th day at lunch
England 129/1 at lunch.154 runs behind.
See how only one wicket of cook prevented draw to be favourite at this time.I am really lookin forward for lay draw at 1.4 or 1.5 if it comes because i dont think it will go downward below that at chances of England win also a concern.
See how only one wicket of cook prevented draw to be favourite at this time.I am really lookin forward for lay draw at 1.4 or 1.5 if it comes because i dont think it will go downward below that at chances of England win also a concern.
2nd test day 4,Predictions
Well at the end of day three England 240 runs behind with 2 days left.
India on third day at 1.4x was a classic free lay.Only movement we see is in draw or England odds.Any Indian wicket cutting England from 35+ to 22+ like three wickets are free with one wicket.
Anything possible in this test now.
India win,Draw and even Englan win.
But for our main interest that when and where is free lays from now on.Is it Draw at any time on day four at 1.5 if arrived?
Trading wise it is good to back India 2.2+ before lunch because Indian odds will cut 0.5 on any wicket at that time.But if England do well then anything can happen.Be cautious in your trading.
India on third day at 1.4x was a classic free lay.Only movement we see is in draw or England odds.Any Indian wicket cutting England from 35+ to 22+ like three wickets are free with one wicket.
Anything possible in this test now.
India win,Draw and even Englan win.
But for our main interest that when and where is free lays from now on.Is it Draw at any time on day four at 1.5 if arrived?
Trading wise it is good to back India 2.2+ before lunch because Indian odds will cut 0.5 on any wicket at that time.But if England do well then anything can happen.Be cautious in your trading.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Why Australia is Number one team in world.
2nd test,India 254/3 at stumps.Leading by 56 runs.Indian odds are 1.59 at close.
See India scoring rate after super start.If Australia had been in this position they might been leading by 125+ runs and irrespective of weather they were in winning position.
Any way analyze our free lay today.We set lay india at 1.52 it is going well but upto when we stick to it?I think till England come to bat or getting out from it and wait for India odds around 1.3x to lay.Think on it.
See India scoring rate after super start.If Australia had been in this position they might been leading by 125+ runs and irrespective of weather they were in winning position.
Any way analyze our free lay today.We set lay india at 1.52 it is going well but upto when we stick to it?I think till England come to bat or getting out from it and wait for India odds around 1.3x to lay.Think on it.
2nd Test Update at Day 2,Post lunch 13.53 BST
India 47/0 Post lunch
Odds are India 1.65,Draw 5.2,England 4.5
-Wait for india price around 1.5.It will not cut beyond that before England come to bat again.
Or lay india 1.66 now?
Analyze it.
Odds are India 1.65,Draw 5.2,England 4.5
-Wait for india price around 1.5.It will not cut beyond that before England come to bat again.
Or lay india 1.66 now?
Analyze it.
Friday, July 27, 2007
2nd test,27july 2007 England/India England 169/7,Stumps
India bowled well today and odds at stumps are
India 2.0,England 3.2,Draw 5.0
We should try to find free lays in low odds for test it is around
1.5 to 1.6 So i normally not prefer these odds but keep
an eye on india odds.What will be indian odds if they bowled out England under 200 and when they bat and make 150/3 on 2nd day?Try to find it.
India 2.0,England 3.2,Draw 5.0
We should try to find free lays in low odds for test it is around
1.5 to 1.6 So i normally not prefer these odds but keep
an eye on india odds.What will be indian odds if they bowled out England under 200 and when they bat and make 150/3 on 2nd day?Try to find it.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Free lays in cricket when and where we can find them
1 Golden rule is that there is more chances of free lay opportunity in batting team low odds either in high scoring or low scoring matches specially in oneday and 20/20 cricket when there is big or low run chase.If you compare that in second inning how many bowling side lost at 1.1x odds then batting side it comes to 20:80 ratio means batting team at chase loss many matches from a decent position.It is almost same in the 4th inning of any test match.It doesn't means that if there is batting/chasing team at low odds we have always free lay opportunity.There are some points to which we will discuss here.
I am trying to separate oneday,20/20 and test matches and we will see when free lay opportunity may come in them.
A.One day cricket:
1.If we see any early low odds for batting team like after 15 overs if team 'A' at 110/0 and odds are 1.18 than there is chances that it will not cut more till end but we must also see both team batting and bowling strengths.
2.When Low odd team bat first like in recent 2nd odi between South africa and India in "Future cup"odds was 1.32 for South africa.And India won this match.
3.Minnows matches:
like bangla,ireland,zimbabwe,scotland,Holand in these matches there are plenty of free lay opportunity as we seen in recent world cup.
4.High chase:as i mention earlier that if any team chasing 275+ and at 170/3 after 35 over at low odds lay these odds because a wicket or two/dot balls will move odds.
5.Whenever Westindies batting at low odds lay them(not blindly) they may collapse any time.
6.Beware of Australia because there odds not move very much till they lost any match.
We will discuss 20/20 and test cricket in next post.
I am trying to separate oneday,20/20 and test matches and we will see when free lay opportunity may come in them.
A.One day cricket:
1.If we see any early low odds for batting team like after 15 overs if team 'A' at 110/0 and odds are 1.18 than there is chances that it will not cut more till end but we must also see both team batting and bowling strengths.
2.When Low odd team bat first like in recent 2nd odi between South africa and India in "Future cup"odds was 1.32 for South africa.And India won this match.
3.Minnows matches:
like bangla,ireland,zimbabwe,scotland,Holand in these matches there are plenty of free lay opportunity as we seen in recent world cup.
4.High chase:as i mention earlier that if any team chasing 275+ and at 170/3 after 35 over at low odds lay these odds because a wicket or two/dot balls will move odds.
5.Whenever Westindies batting at low odds lay them(not blindly) they may collapse any time.
6.Beware of Australia because there odds not move very much till they lost any match.
We will discuss 20/20 and test cricket in next post.
Great free lay in past Part 1-Recent cricket world cup.
Here are some
from recent cricket world cup,2007
1.Ireland Bangladesh match:
Bangladesh odds for pre match and after ireland inning was like 1.2x.Although ireland make 240+ batting first.
2.Australia Southafrica in same world cup:
When SA chasing 370+ at one point they was 200/1 and odds was 1.45 for SA and required runrate was high.
3.India Srilanka:When india chasing and after 3 wickets india was at 1.3x
4.England Westindies match:When England chasing good score and odds was like 1.3 for England.
Other than world cup one match i remember most was between India Bangladesh 1st oneday recently played in Bangladesh after worldcup in which india chasing 240+ in 47 overs and and after few boundaries in start india odds was 1.10 and that was an fantastic/ideal free lay opportunity that india odds will not cut more and every chances that it will go upward or stable for some time.
from recent cricket world cup,2007
1.Ireland Bangladesh match:
Bangladesh odds for pre match and after ireland inning was like 1.2x.Although ireland make 240+ batting first.
2.Australia Southafrica in same world cup:
When SA chasing 370+ at one point they was 200/1 and odds was 1.45 for SA and required runrate was high.
3.India Srilanka:When india chasing and after 3 wickets india was at 1.3x
4.England Westindies match:When England chasing good score and odds was like 1.3 for England.
Other than world cup one match i remember most was between India Bangladesh 1st oneday recently played in Bangladesh after worldcup in which india chasing 240+ in 47 overs and and after few boundaries in start india odds was 1.10 and that was an fantastic/ideal free lay opportunity that india odds will not cut more and every chances that it will go upward or stable for some time.
2nd test England/India 27july,2007 Prematch Homework
2nd test odds
England 2.54,Draw 2.48,India 4.8
Before going any event we have to do homework like
1.Venue:Trent bridge,Nottingham look for pitch behavior.
2.Early odds
3.Weather
4.Previous records at venue
5.Key players:Fit or not
6.Mood of the market.It is very important and someone said right that watch market more than match
7.Money management:How much you can afford
8.Plan your lay then how to back.
These are few points everyone take consideration before get involved.
Do we have any free lay at present market?I think no.
Because odds are high for England and Draw and always try to find free lay in low odds.Like if market open for 2nd test 1.6 Draw or England than there may be some opportunity.
England 2.54,Draw 2.48,India 4.8
Before going any event we have to do homework like
1.Venue:Trent bridge,Nottingham look for pitch behavior.
2.Early odds
3.Weather
4.Previous records at venue
5.Key players:Fit or not
6.Mood of the market.It is very important and someone said right that watch market more than match
7.Money management:How much you can afford
8.Plan your lay then how to back.
These are few points everyone take consideration before get involved.
Do we have any free lay at present market?I think no.
Because odds are high for England and Draw and always try to find free lay in low odds.Like if market open for 2nd test 1.6 Draw or England than there may be some opportunity.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Srilanka/bangla 3rd odi update
Srilanka 121/4,28 overs.
Odds Srilanka 1.14
well last hour we see that srilankan tried there best to get out and banglas try their best to oppose it.Although Srilanka traded as high at 1.40.But how rapid it cut to 1.14 now.This is why on these matches free lay not easily find.
Odds Srilanka 1.14
well last hour we see that srilankan tried there best to get out and banglas try their best to oppose it.Although Srilanka traded as high at 1.40.But how rapid it cut to 1.14 now.This is why on these matches free lay not easily find.
3rd odi Srilanka/Bangladesh 25july,2007
Srilanka 34/2 7 over(40 maximum)
Odds Srilanka 1.15.Lay lanka?No wait and see.
Odds Srilanka 1.15.Lay lanka?No wait and see.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Why free lay opportunity exists?
Why free lay opportunity exists?
1.
World betting market open odds for any event for *end result* what is most likely.During inplay it is also seen.
2.Large people still bet for outcome of an event.Because of this Willhill,Stanjames,paddypower still running.
These are two simple reasons that why free lay opportunity exists either inplay or prematch.It is upto you to find it.
1.
World betting market open odds for any event for *end result* what is most likely.During inplay it is also seen.
2.Large people still bet for outcome of an event.Because of this Willhill,Stanjames,paddypower still running.
These are two simple reasons that why free lay opportunity exists either inplay or prematch.It is upto you to find it.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Update 5th day,1st test lunch
Hope all layed England just before tea as England odds will not short because
1.India need 170+ runs and having 5 wickets.
2.Weather threat still there.
So in any case England odds move upward then downward during lunch.
1.India need 170+ runs and having 5 wickets.
2.Weather threat still there.
So in any case England odds move upward then downward during lunch.
5th day 1st test Eng/Ind
India 173/5 60 over.
Odds are England 1.6,Draw 2.7,India 40
Is England at 1.6 is free lay?I think no it is not.Wait just before lunch you may find it.
Odds are England 1.6,Draw 2.7,India 40
Is England at 1.6 is free lay?I think no it is not.Wait just before lunch you may find it.
2nd odi Srilanka/Bangladesh 23july,2007
Bangla 87/5 30ovr
......No free lay present but if they make 220 and while chasing if lanka 25/2
in 10over at 1.05 then we will see is there any free lay.
......No free lay present but if they make 220 and while chasing if lanka 25/2
in 10over at 1.05 then we will see is there any free lay.
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Update post tea 1st test,day 4
Hope enjoyed last free lay although it was not much profitable.Now India need 380 to win.No free lay at this time.I will update if there will any.
Update lunch 4th day 1st test England/India
As predicted lay draw before play start doing well.
Now lay England 1.9 is free lay?Because it may not go down below 1.8 till India come to bat.
Now lay England 1.9 is free lay?Because it may not go down below 1.8 till India come to bat.
Findfreelay 1st test England/India 19-23,july 2007
4th day predictions..........
Odds Eng 2.54,Draw 1.84,Ind 12 (21 july 20.25 GMT,betfair.com)
Eng leading 170,
8 wkt remain.
.....If Weather so so as by weather sites..
Predictate 150+ over remain in last 2 days.
1.Eng 210/10
Ind need
310/110 over
Eng 2.2,Draw 3.4,Ind 2.0
2.Eng 270 than Ind need 360/90 over
Eng 1.9,Draw 2.4,
Ind 7
3.Eng 160/10 than ind need 260/120 over Eng 2.3,Ind 1.8,Draw 4.6
4.Eng 300/10 Ind need 400/85 than
Eng 2.9,Draw 1.8,
Ind 15
So Draw will not cut more unless very bad weather
So Lay draw 1.8?
Back Eng 2.5?
Is draw at 1.8 is free lay?
(Before start of day 4)
Think yourself.
Odds Eng 2.54,Draw 1.84,Ind 12 (21 july 20.25 GMT,betfair.com)
Eng leading 170,
8 wkt remain.
.....If Weather so so as by weather sites..
Predictate 150+ over remain in last 2 days.
1.Eng 210/10
Ind need
310/110 over
Eng 2.2,Draw 3.4,Ind 2.0
2.Eng 270 than Ind need 360/90 over
Eng 1.9,Draw 2.4,
Ind 7
3.Eng 160/10 than ind need 260/120 over Eng 2.3,Ind 1.8,Draw 4.6
4.Eng 300/10 Ind need 400/85 than
Eng 2.9,Draw 1.8,
Ind 15
So Draw will not cut more unless very bad weather
So Lay draw 1.8?
Back Eng 2.5?
Is draw at 1.8 is free lay?
(Before start of day 4)
Think yourself.
What is free lay in sports betting
Many sport exchanges like betfair/betdaq where you can back and lay teams.Free lay opportunity always exist.
Free lay is situation where laying any team and chances of odd move upward more than downward.
Free lay also the odds which is layed and will stay for some time.
But the main thing is when free lay present and how we can assume it.
In this blog we will try to find it either inplay or before event.
Free lay is situation where laying any team and chances of odd move upward more than downward.
Free lay also the odds which is layed and will stay for some time.
But the main thing is when free lay present and how we can assume it.
In this blog we will try to find it either inplay or before event.
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