Friday, November 30, 2007

South Africa v New Zealand,2nd ODI {Inplay}

3rd Update
South Africa 209/50 overs.
Odds NZ 1.74
Plan is:
1.Lay NZ in 1.3x if comes in 1st 5 overs after flying start.
2.Back NZ at 2.1+ for quick trade upto first 2 wickets.
3.Lay NZ 1.2x in 1st 15 overs after 2 wicket as free lay.
4.Lay NZ 1.1x after 3 wickets with 100+ runs reqd. anytime.
Basically plan is to wait for some wickets then consider lay batting team in low odds.
Good luck.
................
2nd Update
SA 48/3 in 15 overs.
Odds NZ 1.74
Gates are totally opened.Consider back NZ 2.1+ if comes in next 10 overs as a good trading opportunity.This match looking like a low scoring match so best advise is to wait for 2nd innings for rest of trading unless you see very good trading opportunity as mentioned above or good free lay which will be SA 1.5x or below.
...............
1st Update
SA 18/2 in 6.4 overs.
Odds SA 1.87
Bad start and early filp flop.Because of this i always like short odds team to bat first.
Anyway now situation is tricky,one more wicket and New Zealand become favourites and very difficult recovery for SA.My advise is take profit now.Wait for some recovery then back SA 1.8+ if it looks they may score atleast 230.Lay SA 1.4x if comes before 25 overs as free lay.Good luck to all.

...............
Hello and welcome back.South Africa batting first and predicted target odds is:
SA bat first:
310 1.1x
290 1.2x
270 1.3x
250 1.5x
230 1.9x
210 2.3x
190 2.4x
so back SA 1.9+ or lay 1.3x whenever comes.
Remember it is a day nighter.
All the best.

India v Pakistan,2nd Test,Day 1 {Inplay}

1st Update (Lunch)
India 104/1 in 27 overs.
Odds India 2.04,Pakistan 21 and Draw 2.12
Layed India so far and want to continue it till they bat because i think they are not going to cut below 2.0 before Pakistan come to bat.

.................
Hello and welcome all.India won the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are India 2.22,Pakistan 6.2 and Draw 2.4
Laying India now and planning to lay more at evens or below.
Good luck.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

India v Pakistan,2nd Test:1st Day Plan

Hello everyone,
Quick post:Tomorrow look for:
(A)If India bat first:
1.Back India 5+ or lay 2.1x and below.
2.Back Draw 3+ or lay 1.5x and below.
3.Back Pakistan 12+ or lay 2.6x and below.
...............
(B)If Pakistan bat first:
1.Back India 3.5+ or lay 1.6x and below.
2.Back Draw 4+ or lay 1.7x and below.
3.Back Pakistan 20+ or lay 3.5x and below.(whichever comes first basis,try to trade mainly on Draw odds)
May Update at lunch.Please send your plans.

All the best.
P.S:
I will try my best for 'Inplay post' in SA/NZ 2nd ODI Match (12:30 GMT) tomorrow with predicted target odds.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Cricket Trading:Predicting Target Odds (Powerful Tool For 1st Innings Trading)

Hello friends,
Predict target odds is no doubt the most powerful tool for 1st innings trading for one-day and Twenty20 cricket matches(limited overs cricket).Applied it in past also but frankly realized true value after Twenty20 world cup.
How it works:
It works best when team batting first bat well in starting overs and one team is short priced.
For eg. South Africa prematch odds for 2nd ODI with New Zealand is 1.44 as favourites.Suppose SA bat first in this match and start well and score something like 40/0 in 6 overs than there odds will be shorten to 1.26 because market prediction is 280+ score at that time.So these odds are for 280+ score.Now two possibilities are there:
1.They continue to bat well and score 300 around and odds will shorten upto 1.20 without drift.
2.Wickets and slow rate mainly between 10-40 overs and odds drifted to 1.44 during that period when it is looking they are not going to score more than 260 which was the original prediction.
Generally it is seen that run rate drops in middle overs when spin bowlers operating with wickets.So if we lay SA at 1.26 when score was 40/0 in 6 overs chance of loss (if odds shorten which is generally maximum 6 ticks) is very low and chances of profit (if odds drifted) is more.
We can also apply this formula if New Zealand bat first and start well in start and SA odds drifts.
Pitch,ground size,teams strength and market mood are some other important factors for predict target odds.
I agree that it may go sometimes totally against us but it happens rarely and with strict stop loss plan we can minimize loss.
Try it in next match.
All the best.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Cricket Last Week:1.01 & 1.1x Just Escaped

Hello,
Last week 2 'Inplay' short odds selection which was South Africa at both occasions, 1.01(Twenty20) & 1.1x (ODI) against New Zealand anyhow managed to won in last.If we add India also in this list (they was traded at 1.3x on first day in Test against Pakistan and later drifted to 4+ on 3rd day),then we can say all short odds backers was in trouble last week.
The warning from these matches again is 'never back short odds' and there is nothing like free money in sports trading.
So avoid backing short odds in future.
Good luck.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Volatile Market:Best Policy

Hello,
South Africa v New Zealand,1st ODI was a prefect match for free lays and volatile market policy.Not involved in this match and i know it is easy to say as a aftertimer that if i involved in it,traded like this or that and ended with profit.
But in today's post (India v Pakistan,Day 4 plan) if you remember my advise for 'volatile market' which was "if you see volatile market in last either leave it or lay any team in short odds and wait".
Although that was for Test match but i think it applies on all sports trading.
Why?
Market is volatile means short or low odds of any selection is drifting and high odds are shortening repeatedly.In brief frequent flip flops at death.
Still i think best policy is to avoid trade in volatile market but if we want to involve ( because of human tendency) and adopt this policy to lay any short odds and wait will pay us most of the times.Another good thing is chances of big loss is also minimum with it.
Try it next time with small money.
Bye bye
All the best.

India v Pakistan,1st Test-Day 4 At Lunch (Quick Update)

India 3/1 in 4 overs,require another 200 runs.
Odds India 1.27
Plan:
1.Lay India around 1.20 with stop loss 5 ticks if comes just after lunch.
2.Wait for 1 more wicket in next 10 overs then lay India in 1.2x as free lay.
Good luck.

Saturday, November 24, 2007

India v Pakistan,1st Test,4th Day Plan

Hello friends,
Quick post.
4th Day look for:
1.India at 1.3x-1.4x when they come to bat for free lay specially after 2 or 3 wickets.Like 150 runs reqd. With 7 wickets in hand.
2.Pakistan 4.5+ just after last wicket.
3.If you see volatile market in last either leave it or lay any team in short odds and wait.
4.Back India when they bat on 1st two wickets for quick trade.
5.Draw future:Any good solid partnership in Pakistan remaining innings will shorten draw again.So it will be risky to lay Draw at high odds,avoid it.

All the best.

India v Pakistan,1st Test-3rd Day (Inplay)

Hello and welcome back.India 276 all out on 3rd day morning,lead by 45 runs.
Odds India 1.8,Pakistan 3.5,Draw 5
Plan is:
1.India odds will stay at 2.0-2.2 if Pakistan bat well in start for next 20-25 overs and cut by 0.5 on any wicket.I think back India at that time and then wait.
2.If Pakistan continue to bat well till tea then Draw will shorten upto 4 and Pakistan and India odds will stay around 2.5.
3.Look for India odds around 1.2x in Pakistan innings if comes after quick wickets.
4.Look for Pakistan odds 7+ and runs/lead at that time.
Good luck

Friday, November 23, 2007

South Africa v New Zealand,Only Twenty20 (Inplay)

3rd Update:
NZ 129 in 20 overs.
Odds SA 1.08
As i mentioned in 2nd update wait for some wickets and then enter like 60/3 in 8 overs and odds are 1.0x
Good luck to all of us.
.................
2nd Update:
NZ 79/5 in 12.4 overs.
Odds SA 1.12
Poor start from NZ best thing to do now is to wait for 2nd innings to watch SA odds in 1.0x at chase after couple of wickets.

...............
1st Update:
SA won the toss and elected to field first.Predict target odds is:
New zealand bat first:
230 2.4x
210 1.9x
190 1.7x
170 1.5x
150 1.2x
130 1.1x
There are SA odds at innings break.
So back SA 1.7+ if comes in 1st 10 overs and 1.8+ anytime.Also lay SA 1.34 or below anytime in 1st innings.
Present odds are 1.39
Thanks Betfairloser for plan.
Wish you all good luck.
...............
Hello and welcome to our T20 match 'Inplay Post'.
Just little bit of homework before start:
1.Venue:where SA chased successfuly 430+ against Aussies in ODI,so you can imagine ground size and pitch.
2.Weather:80% chances of rain.Little matters in T20.
3.Key Players:Martin and Jacob Oram not playing for NZ.
4.Market mood:Without doubt with SA. Prematch odds are 1.43 SA as favourites.I want SA to bat first at these odds.
I will update and post plan for 1st innings after toss and you're invited to post your strategy/plan for this match anytime to help each other.
Good luck.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

India v Pakistan,1st Test:2nd Day Plan

Hello friends,
A quick post.
Tomorrow look for:
1.India odds around 1.3x to find free lay.
2.Pakistan odds 12+ for quick trading opportunity.
3.Draw odds 7+ for long position.
4.India odds 1.9+ with stop loss 20 ticks for long run.
Lets see which one comes first.
All the best.
P.S:
There will be SA/NZ T20 match tomorrow from 15:00 GMT and i will try my best for inplay post.
Please post your plans for Test & T20 match.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Green Effect:Maximize Your Profit

Last Week P/L +£764.1
Monthly P/L +£1118.9
Traded on 3 matches last week:
1.India v Pakistan,5th ODI +£460.7
2.Australia v Sri Lanka 2nd Test +£74.8
3.South Africa v Newzealand,2nd Test +£228.5
Hello friends.
First same boring thing again which is to post P/L but because Mark Everson advised it to post it regular on weekly/monthly basis,so that those who wants to follow plans in this blog feel more comfortable.Fully agree with Mark advise thus posting it again today although always feels boring specially when most of my trading is live or inplay.
Due to my illness from last 10-12 days.I'm restricted to home which means full time for trading but for selected period as i feel exhausted after little work.
I prepared this post also in many parts before posting in bed on my Nokia mobile.
Traded on 2 Test matches and 1 ODI,not posting in detail of every match trading (seperate inplay posts are there for every match).
Only highlight some changes i applied in these matches mainly towards end after seen a post in betfairtrader blog (frankly understand it very late) or i can say copying some of his style.
I named it 'Green effect' by this we can increase our profits if our book allows mainly towards end.
For example my book was all green in 5th ODI most of the time and when it was clear that Pakistan is in strong position to win this match after 4 and 5 wickets i backed Pakistan from my India green at 1.5x and some extra at 1.3x respectively and set stop loss point.There was two reasons to do this at that time:
1.I backed these odds and on both occasions chances of drift is less and slow means i've taken a value (considering req runs,run rate & wickets at that time)
2.My book is now moderate green Pakistan and small red India so stop loss and bail out points are much higher which is overall safe book.
Thanks once again to BFT.This strategy shown increase in profit (tried on test matches also) and may be continue to try it on 1.2x-1.5x range odds this month,if i think there is value and my book allowing but mainly on bowling team odds towards end because it will be risky for batting team odds which drifts dramatically on wickets.
I know it is risky and chances of big loss anytime but for this i'm going to set stake size for these odds towards end.
And lastly copy a master is easy but to be a master is difficult :-).
All the best.
P.S:
It looks same 2 posts one rough and other full proof posted at same time due to some technical problem.Removed rough post now and sorry for that error.
;-)

Monday, November 19, 2007

Australia v Sri Lanka,2nd Test,5th day plans

Hello,
Any result is possible in this test now and 5th or final day is going to be very exciting.Lanka need 260 runs to win from 98 overs (if no weather interruption) and they have 7 wickets in hand obviously Australia reqd. 7 wickets to win.
Weather:It is going to be big factor tomorrow.So far news is occasional showers in the afternoon and chance of rain is 40% from yahoo weather site.
Current odds are Australia 1.41,Sri Lanka 9.8 and Draw 5.1
Without weather factor it is easy to say that back Australia 1.7+ if comes before lunch as good trading opportunity and wait for Draw or Lanka odds in low zone to find free lay.
Chances of Lanka win is least which is also reflecting in odds even if no weather interruption because they need reqd. runs at 2.7/over and Australia can bowl negative line if they sense it also batting on 5th day in Test match is always difficult but cricket is a game of great uncertainty and anything can happen. So what is the safest plan for tomorrow?
I think back Australia 1.8+ before lunch if comes with stop loss 30 ticks because any wicket before lunch will cut Australia odds by 0.5 in this situation and once Australia odds reach at 1.8+ it will stay long and Draw and Lanka Price will change more.Another interesting point is new ball is due in 11 overs try to take advantage on it.
Free lay may be Lanka odds in 1.6x zone if comes and Draw odds in 1.3x zone after lunch.Keep an eye on weather all the time after lunch.I will try for inplay post as early as possible.
All the best.

Sunday, November 18, 2007

India v Pakistan,5th ODI {Inplay}

2nd Update (innings break)
Pakistan 306/6 in 50 overs.
Odds Pak 1.74
Good 1st innings trading for us and great recovery from Pakistan after 3 quick wickets.
It is a high chase and day night game so we may find some good free lays if India bat well.Pitch is looking easy for batting but chase 300+ is always a tough task.
Plans for 2nd inning are:
1.Back Pakistan 2.4+ if comes in first 10 overs as good trading opportunity.
2.Wait for both team odds (specially batting team) in 1.3x zone with req. runs,run rates and wickets at that time to find free lay.
I'm feeling tired so there may be no update after this.
All the best.
.................
1st Update:
Pakistan 169/3 in 33 overs.
Odds India 1.98
Our 1st 20 overs plan gone well and i hope everyone book is all green.
Pakistan batting well presently.Now for rest of the 1st innings plan is to wait for Pak odds in 1.7x or below to lay because i think even if Pakistan post 300 than Pak odds at innings break is not going to be less than 1.70 considering Indian batting strength.
Good luck.


................
Hello and welcome to our 5th ODI Inplay.It is a dead rubber so be careful.
Pakistan batting first in this day nighter.Odds are India 1.73 as favourites.Market predicting Pakistan score around 260.
Both team rested some key players.
1st inning small plan is to back India at evens if comes in 1st 20 overs with stop loss plan 20 ticks.For free lay wait Pakistan odds in 1.5x-1.6x zone anytime which i doubt will come.

All the best.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Cricket Trading:Different Lay/Back Plans

Hello,
This post is about different lay/back plans in different situations,which i think is the most important part of cricket trading after we find a good free lay.
Most important factors are:
1.Stake size
2.Market mood & behaviour
3.No. Of wickets & Required runs and runrate
4.High chase or low chase
5.Format of the game
6.Lay price & Current price
7.Volatile market or not
8.Pitch type
9.Remaining overs/time in match
10.Book position
11.Whether layed bowling team or batting team
12.Weather
I will take each factor one by one tomorrow.Please post your comments/suggestions.
All the best.

Test Matches Update

Update,14:00 GMT
South Africa v New Zealand,2nd Test
(day-2,post tea)

SA 263/3 63 ov. Lead by 75 runs.
Odds SA 1.20
SA odds may short by 1 tick on every 10 runs from now on even wickets fall in between.
.................
Hello everyone,
Tough days for me. Suffering from acute respiratory tract Infection and Pleurisy which is causing painful breathing.Also having continues internet connection problem.Hoping everything will be settled soon.
Somehow managed for update post on test matches.
Test Matches:
Aus/Lanka and SA/NZ 2nd Test matches,i advised prematch to lay both (Australia in 1.47 and South Africa in 1.61) which i think going well so far.Now further plan for both test matches:
1.Aus/Lanka>Australia declared at 542/5 and Lanka at stumps are 30 without loss.Current odds are Aus 1.72,Draw 2.48 and Lanka 44.
Sri lanka need 312 more runs to avoid follow on.We have 2 options now either to trade on Aus odds or Draw odds.Australia may go defensive tomorrow if Sri Lanka bat well if only one wicket before lunch tomorrow because it is only 2 match series and they have already won 1st test and leading series by 1-0.
Pitch is looking good for batting.
Current plan is to take all green position now like if layed at 1.4x back 80% at 1.7x
2nd Day plan:
(A)Wait for either Australia or Draw odds in 1.3x range then trade with lay and back plan 1.3-1.6 (80%) with stop loss plan 5-7 ticks.
(B)Wait for Australia Odds 2.1+ if comes then back and lay plan on wicket fall 2.1-1.7 before lunch.
overall i think once draw will reach at 1.25-1.35 it will stay there for long and consider that as free lay.Weather is also a big factor in this match so keep an eye on weather sites.
2.SA/NZ>SA odds drifted to 1.6x to 2.3x yesterday.hope everyone taken all green position yesterday.
Current score is SA batting at 128/2 (36 ov) trail by 60 runs(NZ 1st innings 188) and odds are SA 1.25,Draw 6.2 and NZ 18.
Next 2 hour is going to decisive in this test match.If SA managed to score 100 more runs in these 2 hours with only 1 or 2 wickets then their price may shorten to 1.1x and draw will drift.Plan is to wait for SA odds in 1.1x zone and small lay at that time for 1 hour or 4 ticks stop loss.But if no wicket than wait for 1.0x odds on day third.
Well you may think why i'm not considering to back SA at 1.2x now or later with stop loss 4 ticks.The reason is simple that cricket is a funny game and anything can happen anytime like South Africa may collapse in 60-70 runs.
All the best.

Friday, November 16, 2007

4th ODI Review



This is South Africa price change today so far on day one of 2nd Test Match.(2 pm G.M.T)
(Upto Score:New Zealand 187/8 in 56.0 ov)
(From odds.bestbetting.com)
Current odds are SA 1.38


Hello and welcome back.
Sorry for no inplay post today.As I'm having some difficulty in Internet connection.
Trading on SA/NZ match and planning to lay again at 1.3x

Posting below my P/L and 4th ODI review.
Yesterday P/L £122.6
Monthly P/L £354.8

Traded 2 ODI's and 2 Test matches this month so far.In Test matches i closed my position on day 1 due to reasons which i mentioned before very early with 14.5 profit in Australia v Sri Lanka 1st test and 30.6 green any result on SA/NZ test.
Traded fully on 1st and 4th ODI between Pakistan and India.
4th ODI 1st inning was boring from trading point of view.All you can do is to back India at evens and let it run but it was risky from my point of view because it was a day/night match and Afridi and Kamran Akmal coming in lower order there was chances of 280+ score.
Anyway i traded in 2nd innings lay India in 1.4x and backed all with top-up at 1.6x in 1st 10 overs.In 11-20 overs again layed India at 1.4x with my India green but Tendulkar was in great touch and i stop loss for this trade at 10 ticks and waited for some wickets for further trade.After 3rd wicket i was planning to lay India at 1.1x but before i could do anything Tendulkar got out.
Now India odds again drifted to 1.3x but i dislike backing batting team in low odds.Finally i layed India at 1.12 to make my book green on any result.
Good Luck.

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Australia v Sri Lanka & South Africa v New Zealand,Test Matches Prematch Homework

Hello,
Laying Australia at 1.47 and South Africa at 1.61 because i think these are short odds from test match point of view on day one(if both bat first like first test,i will let it run but if they don't than 10 ticks stop loss and then wait for 1.3x to lay).
Weather:Chances of rain is there in both matches.
Key players:Shane bond is not playing due to injury.

I will try for inplay post in both matches but chances are more in SA/NZ match.
Good luck.

India v Pakistan,4th ODI {Inplay}

3rd Update
India 105/2 in 20 overs
Odds India 1.34
Well my stop loss is 10 ticks.I layed at 1.44 and backed at 1.34
Now wickets are crucial at this stage.No wicket and India odds will be in 1.1x zone.Plan now is to wait for India in these odds with wickets and runrate at that time.
...................
2nd Update
India 58/2 in 10 overs.
Odds India 1.6
Our plan for 1st 10 overs gone well.
Plan is same again for next 10 overs like wait India to lay 1.4x because at this stage one more wicket means flip flop.

..................
1st Update (Innings break)
Pakistan 255/50 overs.
Odds India 1.70
Not a bad score to defend.Plan is to wait for India in 1.4x to lay if comes in 1st 10 overs.Another plan is to back India 2.2+ if comes after early wicket for quick trade.All the best.

...............
Hello and welcome to our 4th ODI inplay post.It is a day/night match.
Pakistan won the toss and elected to bat first.Plan for 1st inning by predict target odds is:
Pakistan bat first
310 1.4x
290 1.6x
270 1.8x
250 2.4x
230 3.6x
210 4.8x
190 5.6x
These are Pakistan odds.So lay Pakistan 1.6x or below if comes in first 15 overs and lay 1.5x or below anytime.As always main trading will be in 2nd inning. Unless very good trading opportunity or free lay in 1st innings.
Good luck

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

India v Pakistan,4th ODI Prematch Homework

Hello friends,
Before going into this match i want to say that 3rd ODI was ideal for our strategy/basics(i know it is easy to say after seeing result but i will try to explain it in detail in this post).There was no inplay post or trading from my side.But my friend saved historic odds from odds.bestbetting.com site and after seeing that i can say that was a perfect match for trading for us.
How?
India batted first and post 294 and won that match by 46 runs.
India odds in 1st inning starting overs (15 overs) shorten upto 1.5x those who are regular here knows well that our main plan for 1st innings at this time by predict target odds is to lay batting team in these odds because market mood at that time is they will score 300 atleast.Yes India scored near about that (294) but there odds drifted to 2.2+ in middle because of wickets.Even if India scored 325 and that too swiftly i don't think India odds in innings break is going to be less than 1.4x because
(1)Pakistan chased 320+ in last game successfully.
(2)Market always thinks that it is a good pitch to bat on and other team can also score 320+
So it was a good free lay in which chance of downward move was 10-15 ticks maximum but upward move was much higher.
Please stay for more important point at this time:
If India scored 350+ or there odds shorten to 1.2x without any drift?
Here comes the advance lay/back plan which i insists many time.
Like if we layed India at 1.58 that time than back plan if odds shorten was 1.42 which is also stop loss or exit point.
This was the 1st innings highlight of that match.
Now take 2nd inning:
Pakistan started chase well and scored 70 quick runs in nearly 7 overs.India odds drifted to 2.2+ this time and those who are regular here also knows that our 2nd innings plan in high chase is back bowling team at 2.0+ if comes in 10 overs due to flying start.Again question arise here is if Pakistan continue to bat well and India odds starting to drift more than what to do?
Answer is again that advance lay/back plan or stop loss and then wait for batting team in low odds to find free lay with required runs,run rate and wickets at that time (fingers crossed which pays us most of the times or infact our main strategy in high chase or low chase matches and only difference is that in low chase we may find batting team in short odds very early than high chase).
4th ODI homework and plan:
Well what i typed so far in more than half hour (my speed is really very slow) is again going to be plan for this match with slight change because it is a day/night match(I will try my best for inplay post tomorrow).
Like try to find free lay in batting team in 1.5x lower range or below (1.6x for Pakistan) in starting overs (15) in first inning and in 2nd inning wait for chase team in low odds and if it is a high chase then consider backing bowling team 1.9+ if comes in first 10 overs as a good trading opportunity.

Trading plans seldom changes in one-days only odds range changes with teams,venue,pitch and day/night effect like if Australia and India playing in which Australia odds are mostly in 1.5x or 1.6x zone in start than plan to lay Australia if they bat first range drops to 1.4x or 1.3x after good start.
Good luck.
P.S:
My main strategy in cricket trading is based on laying batting team mostly which is obviously backing bowling team in certain situations but recently i worked on 'can we find good free lay in bowling team odds also' and if yes then in which situation.This i will try to explain in next post.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Stop Gambling And Start Trading

Hello there,
There is a huge difference between gambling and trading and i think everyone knows it well.
Anyone can win 7/10 times in any sport in which he/she has some knowledge.
But the main thing ' Is 7 win profit is more than 3 losses everytime?'
I'm afraid not most of times.So why this happens:
1.Refusal to take all green position most of the times because we think game is over.
2.Refusal to take stop loss point or bail out position(exit point) and let the loss trade run and than wait for miracle.
3.Ego problem like i am not going to be on losing side and starts chasing at short odds.
4.Backing short odds.
I will take first point in detail(refusal of all green position) with example of cricket matches but i thing it applies in every sports trading.

1.One-day:In 3rd ODI which played recently (11th November) between India and Pakistan (although i not traded on that match but my friend saved historic odds from odds.bestbetting.com site)
India batted first and post 294.Pakistan began there chase well but India won in last.

Assume anyone book is 400 green on India and 1000 red on Pakistan when India odds are 1.07 means 1.08 to lay after 4 wickets in 2nd innings.At this point
the sensible thing is to lay India for 1000 at least to make book 320 green on India and 0 or no liability on Pakistan and then wait for 1.04 or less to further lay India to make equal green on any result.But what we do mostly is refuse to lay at these time and think game is over and lay this time is waste of money.
What actually happened is there was good 5th wicket partnership and India odds drifted to 1.3x zone again.At this time one who refuge to lay in 1.0x started worrying even if he knows India still is in driver seat but he has liability on Pakistan.
But other one who layed India at 1.0x means his book is 320 green India and no liability on Pakistan can wait or even think to back 1000 on India at 1.35 and his book become 670 green India and 1000 red Pakistan which gives him much safer position because he has backed India at 1.67 virtually for 1000 which is strong favourite at that time.
2.Take another example:
Australia in every match at 1.5x or above is safe gambling but refuse to lay them in 1.0x after backing at higher odds is surely pure gambling or stupidity(which i also do).
For example recently played 1st Test between Australia and Sri Lanka (traded on this match and other test only at day 1 and odds for this match roughly taken from betfair cricket forum).
Australia batted first and post huge score in 1st innings.There odds from start (1.5x) hardly drifted and after follow on and couple of wickets in Lanka 2nd inning reached to 1.0x zone on 3rd day but Australia odds drifted to 1.4x on 4th day because of weather threat and one good partnership in Sri Lanka 2nd innings.Now again one who refused to lay Australia at 1.0x when his book was good green on Australia found himself in difficult condition.
There are many examples like BFT highlighted in recent post that someone has backed Pakistan at 2.3x for 12k in 5th ODI with South Africa.Pakistan lost that match from 1.01 position and that person didn't layed Pak at 1.0x.
Although once any selection reached in short odds specially in 1.0x zone they hardly beaten in sports but if there is major drift or flip flop then one who had chance of all green position but refuse to take may find himself in difficult situation and may end with no profit or loss.
Take Ray (sports trader) example that how he is making consistent profit but with trading and not by gambling.

Other 3 points are equally important like prepare for loss in any event and try to minimize it by early stop loss or exit.Lastly never back short odds in sports you can earn most of the time but one loss may wipe all earnings.
Happy trading and good luck.
P.S:
I taken 2 matches as example in which team who won reached to 1.0x odds but it doesn't mean we always wait for all green position at these odds.It may be different according to our book and match situation.Like if book is +2k and -1k if team 'A' win and their odds are 1.20 to lay then try to make it atleast +1700 and +500 by laying 1.5k at 1.20 for all green book.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

We Love Our Family

Hello and welcome back,
My daughter is doing fine now.She's almost recovered from gastroenteritis and fever.Main causative organisms in children are generally viruses in which no specific drugs (antimicrobials) required or available and only symptomatic treatment like fluid management,probiotic and antipyretic drugs needed.But sometimes when body immune system becomes weak and because of this opportunistic micro organisms like bacteria grows in body which causes fever and additional problem.
This micro organisms causes infectious disease all over the world and sadly they are becoming strong day by day (drug resistant) and because of that almost every month a new antibiotic is launched.Reason for drug resistant is rational use of antibiotics and not taking proper course of these drugs.So my advise is always take full course of drugs and never take them without expert medical practitioner advise.

We see many times specially in elderly patients when they admitted in hospitals for heart,kidney,lungs,brain or G.I.T problems,there main problem treated well but nosocomial infection (hospital aquired infections) or post operative infections causes much problem in long run.I hope one day medical science will take control of these problems.
Whenever i read other blogs i found in all that how much everyone cares and love their family whether it is Mark Iverson,Gambler,Sports trader and BFT.Some are having problems like Mark Iverson child who is yet to be born is having congenital heart disease,Gambler mother also having some problem.Best wishes to them and there family.
Life is never easy but it goes on and we should try our best to tackle ups and down.
In last i want to say we all love our family so always try hard to make them happy.Perhaps we are here (sports trading) because of them so always try safe and selective trading.
Wishing you and your family all the best.

P.S:I will start cricket trading from 4th one-day between India and Pakistan and there will be inplay post for that match.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

A Good Read

Hello everyone.Trading free days for me till daughter recovers fully.
Nowdays reading old articles for review in free time and from them i think this is one of the best to learn cricket trading basics http://www.totalgambler.com/tips/latesttips/1911/how_to_trade_a_cricket_match.html
Good luck.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Another Quick Update

Hello friends.I'm feeling some relaxed as my daughter is improving.Although not trading today because i think do it only when other important work done.
Just checked the scorecard of the 1st Test match between South Africa and New Zealand and found South Africa batting again and score is 3/0 leading by 111 runs and odds are 1.18
I think SA in 1.19 is a excellent free lay(will not cut below 1.15 till SA bat) because lead is not big and they may collapse and lastly they will not declare before 350 lead.
So it will be atleast 80 over free lay.
I'm in hurry so please make your lay/back plan according to situation.

Good luck

Thursday, November 8, 2007

A Quick Update

Hello friends and sorry for no inplay post today because my 3 year old daughter is suffering from acute gastroenteritis and fever.
Wish you all good luck.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Tomorrow's Test Matches And ODI Prematch Homework

Hello and welcome once again for our prematch homework for tomorrow matches.Three matches,2 Test and 1 one-day which are:
1.Australia v Sri Lanka 1st Test at 0:00 GMT
2.South Africa v New Zealand 1st Test at 8:30 GMT
3.Pakistan v India 2nd ODI at 09:00 GMT
Well too much international cricket and it will be really difficult to manage them all.
I will trade mainly in one-day match tomorrow.But for 2 Test I'm laying or layed for small Australia and South Africa because i think there prices are short from Test match point of view on 1st day and if they bat first i will let it run.
Plan for India/Pakistan ODI is:
It is a day/night match at Mohali,India which is a average score (240-250) ground.But the interesting thing is team batting first won mostly even at average score means chasing at this ground is difficult.
Market mood is again with india so if India bat first and having good start there odds may shorten to 1.6x or below early so lay them as free lay if it comes in 1st 10 overs.
If Pakistan bat first try to find free lay in 1.8x Pak odds in start.
As always since it is a day/night there may be very good trading opportunity or free lays in 2nd inning specially in batting team low odds we may find (chase won't be easy) so we will do most of the trading in 2nd inning.
Good luck.
P.S:
I will try for Inplay post tomorrow as early as possible in which main plan for one-day match but also cover 2 Test matches running and try to find and tell you as soon as i think any good free lay or trading opportunity in them.And if you find any good opportunity than please post it.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Cricket Trading:When To Lay?

1st ODI (India/Pak) P/L +£186.9
Monthly P/L +£186.9
Hello and good evening,
1st ODI was boring but managed to green on any result 120 in 1st inning and 60 odd in 2nd inning.Today I'm asking you two different questions in which i think the cricket trading basics/strategy hidden.
The questions are:
(Assuming both teams are almost equal and playing one-day match).
1.Team 'A' batting first and score 50/3 in 15 overs and odds are 1.3x of team 'B' (bowling team) as favourites.Same team at score 80/3 in 25 overs and odds are same eg. 1.3x of team 'B'.
So my question is when to lay team 'B' in 1.3x (bowling team).

2.Second question is Team 'A' bat first and scored 277/8 in 50 overs.Team 'B' is chasing and score is 148/2 in 30 overs and odds are 1.3x of team 'B' as favourites.Same team at score 178/3 in 35 overs and odds are 1.3x
So again question is which one is better lay of team 'B' who is batting team in this case in 1.3x.
I will post my answers with reasons to these questions in next post.
Waiting for your answer/comment.
Good luck!

Monday, November 5, 2007

India v Pakistan,1st ODI {Inplay}

1st Update
India 150/3 in 29 overs.Needs 90 to win from 126 balls.
Odds India 1.15
Well required run rate is under reach.So wait for 1 more wicket or run a ball situation if comes (6/over) and than consider lay India in 1.1x as free lay.
Good luck
................
Hello and welcome back.It is innings break now.1st inning plan i posted yesterday.Now the situation is:
Pakistan won the toss and elected to bat first.They made 239/7 in 50 overs.
Odds are India 1.60
Plan is to wait for India odds in 1.3x zone specially after 2-3 wickets if comes with consideration of run rate at that time to find free lay.Another plan is to back India at 1.9+ after fall of 1st and 2nd wicket for quick trades.Overall it is a good score on this pitch and if early wickets than it will be a interesting chase.
All the best.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

India v Pakistan,1st ODI,Prematch Homework

Hello and welcome to our 1st prematch homework of this month.It is also the 1st match of 5 one-day matches series between India and Pakistan in India.
So we don't have any data for this series so far about teams performance.But from recent performance of both teams we can say it is difficult to pick any favourite.Odds for 1st ODI is 1.81 India as favourites.
It is still not clear that whether i will involve from start or not because it is too early but if i will involve than my plan is:
1.Mood of the market is to go with India so if india bat first try to find free lay in India odds at 1.6x or below if comes anytime in 1st 15 overs after good start.
2.Key players:Sehwag is not playing which i think is a setback for India.Shoaib Akhtar is back which is a huge bonus for Pakistan.
3.Venue/pitch:Match will be played at Guwahati where India played 6 matches,won 3 and lost 3.
Ground records is that it is not a big score ground and 240-250 may be a good score to defend.But the most important factor is morning due which will help seamers in start as it is not a day/night match.
4.Weather:It is fine.
Overall conclusion is lay India now (if you are going to trade from start) and than wait for toss and if India bat first because of Sehwag and Akhtar factor plus morning due effect let it run.India may be traded at evens in start.
If Pakistan bat first back India (prematch lay plus 20% extra) and than wait.Lastly if Afridi opens and some fireworks than lay Pakistan in 1.6x-1.7x if comes in 1st 15 overs.In short back bowling team in 2.2+ in 1st inning starting overs.My view is that Pakistan bowling is better than India.As always i will wait for 2nd inning for most of the trading unless good free lay or trading opportunity in 1st inning.
Good luck.

Saturday, November 3, 2007

Entertainment Tax......Tuition Fees.....Paid?....Or.....Paying!

Hello and good morning all,
This post i wanted to post long time back after reading a post in Richard Wildman blog 'Bet Trading:100 to 100000' in which he mentioned initial or early trade losses in sports trading as tuition fees.
I added some more in it which i think comes first is 'Entertainment Tax' which most of us pays in start.
Well what it is all about let me explain first how i started sports trading almost 2 years back.One of my close friend trade on cricket matches regularly and although i knew it but never attempted.One day i was at his home watching India v Pakistan ODI live and he was trading on that match.Pakistan was chasing something 240+ score and 7 wickets down and 100 more runs was required at 6/over (from my memory).Injamam was still playing but only tailenders left to bat with him.As i understand cricket since my childhood i was confident that chances of India win is far better than Pakistan.I asked my friend that match is almost over and what you have done so far.He told me that he is nearly +500 on India and +100 on Pakistan and going to back some more on India at 1.22 at that time.Then suddenly he asked me 'do yo want any bet?' and if yes than on which team.I said no but i think India will win comprehensively from here.Than he said will he back some more money on India at 1.2x on my behalf from his account and we will be settled it after match.I thought for a second and than i said o.k put 1k on India for me.India won that match easily and my friend gave me 200 from his pocket just after match and said it is deposited in his account and he will withdraw it from there.
After that day i tried it again with my friend in same manner for 2-3 times and fortunately all ended in profit(nearly 1k).
At this point i was thinking that it is very easy money to earn and gradually started at my own.Before the start of match i become excited and starts trading on every market in cricket after start(session runs/total score etc.)
without plan.At this time i was enjoying it more although slowly money was slipping from my hand.But i was not concerned about it more because the loss was small and i was really enjoying it.My trade results at that time was like profit in three and lost all plus some more in one.
Than come that 'Test Match' which i mentioned before in which i lost huge money by backing draw in short odds only to chase.Weather was the crucial factor in that match but more important was mixing of alcohol,chase,greed so overall that was my fault.
So it is all my story and after that huge setback i quit trading for months and only watched cricket matches and odds movements without trading.Read many articles on trading/gambling on internet and the final conclusion was that 'no one can ever earn in that.'
Next is how i started it again.Watched many matches without trading i realized that where the good opportunity is and in which matches and in those matches what is the time to enter or exit and in short where i was wrong.But even at this time i was not thinking to re enter in it.
One day when i was surfing on net i got link of BFT blog that is http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com after reading it and some other blogs which linked there i realized money can be earn in sports trading but only by strict discipline and money management.I started it again by small money and after some time i decided to start my own blog.
This is all my story.Coming to the title of post which is Entertainment Tax......Tuition Fees.....Paid?....Or.....Paying!
I think in start when i was enjoying it with small losses that was 'Entertainment Tax' and the losses after that was 'Tuition Fees' unfortunatly that was big for me.
My main purpose for this post is that nearly all goes through this phase and mostly left it after that and my sincere advise is if you are going through this phase please rethink that is it suits you?If not than quit it for some time and try to only start it again with the sport which you feel comfortable after research and with strict discipline and money management.Don't try to chase money which you lost,try to recover it in part by small wins.It may take months but it is the only way you can get your money back.If you are doing well means tax and fees paid than all the best for future.
Many thanks to BFT again and i highly recommend all to read his great blog.
Good luck and best wishes.

Friday, November 2, 2007

Best Odds Comparison Site With Historic Odds Facility

Hello and welcome again,
We should try to keep sports trading as simple as possible by stick to our basics but odds comparison sites are essential in sports trading either inplay or prematch to know mood of the market on any event and i think the best site for this is http://odds.bestbetting.com
It not only cover odds from different bookmakers like others but also shows historic odds of any event.Know historic odds of any event during inplay is very useful to learn market behaviour in any sport on certain situations like goal in football or wicket in cricket.
So by odds comparison we can asses market mood and by historic odds we can learn market behaviour.Try this site by click on this link http://odds.bestbetting.com/cricket/odi-series/india-v-pakistan/1st-odi/india-v-pakistan/match-result-(draw-no-bet)/historic-odds to see historic odds of 1st ODI between India and Pakistan during inplay (5th Nov.) or prematch.
Best of luck.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

A Quick Update:Australia v Sri Lanka 1st Test match

Just checked the odds for 1st Test.Australia 1.49 to back and 1.50 to lay!
After checking ground results,weather,team forms etc.Lay Aus in 1.5 with back plan at 1.38 in worst case and 1.7x in higher case on 1st day and if Australia bat first let it run or consider more lay in 1.3x-1.4x after good start.
Good luck.

Upcoming International Cricket Series And Matches:November,2007

Hello and welcome back.It is November now in which 3 International series will be played which are:
1.Pakistan v India:5 ODI and 3 Test matches in India from 5th Nov.
2.New Zealand v South Africa:3 ODI,1 Twenty20 and 2 Test matches in SA from 8th Nov.
3.Sri Lanka v Australia:2 Test matches in Australia from 8th Nov.
For details click here http://in.sports.yahoo.com/sportz/cricket-schedules.html or http://content-www.cricinfo.com/ci/content/current/match/fixtures/live.html here.
So no match till 5th and i will try to post plans for these matches in advance.Trading free days for me but if you have any than good luck and all the best.