Hello and welcome back.
We are offering free service till 14th May at live trading room.
Details can be found here http://tradeoncricket.com/
Also we are posting preview and plan of most of the matches.
It can be found daily at Pete's blog http://tradeonsports.blogspot.com/ along with excellent football predictions by
Pete and sometimes here also.
...........................................
Delhi v Punjab:
(11:30 GMT)
Venue :
Punjab Cricket Association Stadium, Mohali, Chandigarh
................
Delhi unbeaten so far from 2 games while Punjab won one game from three.
Delhi mainly dependent on their openers and on their day they can be unstoppable but if they fail then there is no depth in batting.Punjab more balance side than Delhi.
Overall Delhi is team who can win by 9 wickets or lose by 9 wickets.
Main points:
1.Ground/pitch:
Batting pitch and high scoring match is expected.Toss winner may prefer to bat first.
2.Teams :
>Delhi
Key players are Sehwag , Gambhir , S Malik , D L Vettori and Mcgrath
Team don't have batting depth so they may struggle if bad start.
>Punjab
Yuvraj , Jayawardene , B Lee , JR Hopes and Sangakkara are key players.
Balanced team and batting depth.
B Lee can destroy any team top batting order.
3.Early prices and market mood.
Punjab slightly favourites at 1.98 presently.
(Delhi now @1.89 during typing)
Punjab playing at home ground and no doubt more balanced team than Delhi.
Roughly no clear cut favourites.
.................
Strategy for match:
We traded 2 games yesterday.
1st match plan gone well but not in 2nd match.
But i hope profit in 1st match is more than 2nd match loss because quick stop loss is taken in 2nd match.
Main winning strategy done well in 1st match and our focus will be more on that in remaining matches.
.................
Predicted target odds & 1st innings plan:
(A) If Delhi bat first:
230 1.1x
210 1.4x
190 Evens
170 2.5x
150 3.8x
130 6.2x
110 15
*All are Delhi odds.
Plan If Delhi bat first:
1.Lay Delhi 200@1.6x (consider 1.8x after Sehwag wicket) if comes in 1st 10 overs as free lay.
Stop loss:
Strict stop loss @1.48 because Sehwag and Gambhir explosive batting can start 1.01 train.
If stop loss does not hit then let it run and green up last.
2.Back Punjab 100@2+ if comes in first 10 overs after 2 wickets.Consider back Punjab 1.7+ if bad start and 2 wickets and Sehwag wicket in that if comes in 1st 10 overs.
Back 100 more if odds lengthen to 2.2-2.4
Stop loss : 2.9 Punjab
Let it run for some time if stop loss does not hit and green up at low odds.
3.Lay Delhi 200@1.2x if comes anytime in 1st innings.
Stop loss at available odds in innings break and take profit or back 120% above 20-30 ticks.
(Summary is if bad start then back Punjab at decent odds and if very good start then lay Delhi in low odds and green up if stop loss does not hit).
...................
(B) If Punjab bat first:
230 1.1x
210 1.4x
190 1.8x
170 2.6x
150 4.8x
130 8.2x
110 20
*All are Punjab odds.
Plan If Punjab bat first:
1.Lay Punjab
100@1.7x
100@1.4x
If comes in 1st 10 overs.
Stop loss at 12-15 overs at 1.4x-1.5x and take equal profit whenever you get chance.
Try to repeat this trade.
3.Lay Delhi 100@1.6x if comes upto 2 wickets but score 60+ in first 10 overs.
Stop loss 12 ticks and let it run if stop loss does not hit for some long and then green up.
4.Lay Punjab 200@1.5x if comes after 3 wickets in 12-15 overs and runrate below 10 with stop loss 12 ticks.
Take profit whenever you get chance.
...............
Summary:
It is going to be contest between
Sehwag and B Lee
Sangakkara and Mcgrath
This contest winner's team is going to be most likely winner.
No straight bet advise because difficult to predict winner.
All the best.
Dip
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Friday, April 18, 2008
IPL Twenty20 Tournament : Strategy & Some General Points
Hello and welcome back.
Long time since last post but I'll try now to be regular.
Big tournament ahead so i want to post something on it.
....................................
Main matches in which good free lays and excellent trading opportunities is expected :
First I'm taking 2nd innings opportunities:
1.High chase (170-210) :(A) Batting team low odds (1.2-1.4) to lay around 7-10 overs if they start well.(B) Bowling team low odds (1.1-1.3) to lay if early wickets.
2.Low chase (110-140) :(A) Batting team low odds (1.0x-1.2) to lay around 2-5 overs if they start well.(B) Batting team high odds odds ( 1.6-1.8 ) to back if early wickets.
1st innings:
(A)Flying start by batting team : Batting team low odds (1.3-1.5) around 3-7 overs to lay.
(B) Bowling team low odds (1.3-1.5) to lay if early wickets in first 10 overs (as mentioned earlier wickets are of less importance in this format and collapse generally not seen because 11 batsman are there to play only 20 overs).
>Those matches are very good for trading in which one team is strong favourite prematch around 1.4x-1.6xBecause there odds shorten rapidly after good start either batting first or bowling first and in this format of cricket every team has equal chance to win.
..............................................
Some general points to consider while laying low odds:
*Wickets are of less importance so we can consider lay bowling team on wickets @1.3x in first 10 overs.*Any 1.2x if comes early is proved a good lay if both are good teams because only one good over can change the odds
............................................
Predicted target odds
It is not easy to predict in starting matches because all teams are new but imo odds are going to be around evens on 160 score if almost equal teams are playing (In recently played ICL it was very difficult to predict because big difference in teams ,like for 180 odds was 1.1x at innings break where is in last Twenty20 world cup it was around 1.5x because all teams played in that tournament was quality teams >full strength team from test playing nations).
Main points for predicted target odds:
>Pitch type.
>Ground size and history (high scoring or low scoring ground).
>Market mood (heavily favouring one team or not).
>Home or away team.
>Both team batting & bowling strength.
>Both team records against each other.
>Day/Night effect on matches specially in chase and due factor.
...............................
I want to mention here that first week matches are for small stake trading and to make a strategy for next matches.
Because in every team there are unknown players.
So Predicted target odds is difficult to predict in early matches like for tomorrow match i don't have fair idea about odds on score 170 if Kolkata bat first (is it going to be 1.7x or 1.4x and even 1.2x is possible).
........................................
Volatile market strategy:
Possibility of volatile market in each match.
Best it to avoid trading at that time but if you want to trade at that time small lay anyteam 1.2x or below.
Why:
Market is volatile because odds are changing rapidly on wickets and runs means short odds are lengthening and long odds are becoming short.
So there are three benefits of this strategy:
First benefit is if that trade goes against use then loss in minimum because we layed short odds.
Second is big profit is expected every time and the third one and most important is you can close that trade easily anytime like if you layed 100@1.22 then chances of back at 1.14-1.18 is there everytime...............
Apart from this always try to go with bowl team in tense situation at 7+ or lay bat team at 1.1x.
.......................................................
When to lay:
Most important point because this creates the difference between mug punting and smart trading.Always try to take momentum odds i.e after boundaries or wickets.
1st Innings:
1.Batting team after flying start in low odds in 1st 5 overs or after 4-5 wickets in low odds in middle overs.
2.Bowling team upto 3 wickets in low odds in 1st 10 overs.
Second innings:
1.Low chase :
wait for batting team 1.0x after 2 wickets because even after 2 wickets odds are same as start but chances of drift is more after 2 wickets.
2.High chase :
Wait for batting team in low odds if good start.
....................................
Random general tips:
>While Laying bowling team 1.2x:Consider who is coming next or whether big hitter batsman are remaining or not .
>Wait for anyteam 1.3x is best policy in Twenty20.
>Spin bowling around 10-15 overs is crucial in both innings.So teams having good spinners are backable at that time.
>Chasing :60 runs in 6 overs looks big but 40 in 3 doesn't looks big if wickets in hand so can consider lay bowling team 1.1x in this situation.
>Batting team 1.0x-1.2x odds in chase is going to be very good trading opportunity specially after 3 wickets and 90+ runs required at 8+ runrate because at this runrate it is not easy to score in any format of the game or i can say should not be a 1.1x call.
>Selective trading in selective matches is best for long term.
>Advance lay/back plan with stop loss is must because there is generally no win trade is seen in Twenty20 matches and few ticks profit on each side is going to be main strategy.More profit on favourite team is considerable.
..................................................
Advance lay/back plans and stop loss:
Other important point or most important aspect of trading specially in limited overs game. It is human tendency that we all close win trade early and let lose trade run long. Like if layed at 1.2 then back at 1.3 or 1.4 but if it goes against us then wait for miracle. Common problem with everyone and i think solution for this is mechanical trading (frankly from my personal experience there is loss whenever i deviated from it or very small profit instead of good plan). So always follow advance lay/back plans with strict stop loss and it is the way for success in long run.
For example if any team batting first in a Twenty20 match has a flying start and the odds are 1.4x in 4th over. As per plan we layed that team for 200@1.44, now back plan is important. Suppose after 1st wickets odds reached to 1.6x then it is sensible to back 120% or 240@1.62 because in Twenty20 wickets are of less importance than in any other format of the game .For this place advance back trade of 240@1.62 is required because odds changes within seconds to 1.5x (some time without a ball been bowled) and then try to lay/back 1.4x-1.6x again.
*Also take stop loss if required, suppose if set at 6-8 ticks is must when trade looking to going against us (we've seen in recent ICL matches Lahore odds shorten to 1.0x within few overs in start) .
So back plan may be to back 80% at above 20-25 ticks (take early profit) or back 120% at above 20-25 ticks and try to repeat that.
......................................................
DON'T's In Twenty20 Trading
Please avoid these situations which can lead to poor house:
1.Never back short odds at anytime of match (1.0x to 1.3x) .
2.Don't allow lose trade to run long.
3.Avoid over trading and over staking.
4.Don't chase losses.
Please visit regular for preview and strategy for matches.
Thanks for visit.
All the best and good luck to all.
Long time since last post but I'll try now to be regular.
Big tournament ahead so i want to post something on it.
....................................
Main matches in which good free lays and excellent trading opportunities is expected :
First I'm taking 2nd innings opportunities:
1.High chase (170-210) :(A) Batting team low odds (1.2-1.4) to lay around 7-10 overs if they start well.(B) Bowling team low odds (1.1-1.3) to lay if early wickets.
2.Low chase (110-140) :(A) Batting team low odds (1.0x-1.2) to lay around 2-5 overs if they start well.(B) Batting team high odds odds ( 1.6-1.8 ) to back if early wickets.
1st innings:
(A)Flying start by batting team : Batting team low odds (1.3-1.5) around 3-7 overs to lay.
(B) Bowling team low odds (1.3-1.5) to lay if early wickets in first 10 overs (as mentioned earlier wickets are of less importance in this format and collapse generally not seen because 11 batsman are there to play only 20 overs).
>Those matches are very good for trading in which one team is strong favourite prematch around 1.4x-1.6xBecause there odds shorten rapidly after good start either batting first or bowling first and in this format of cricket every team has equal chance to win.
..............................................
Some general points to consider while laying low odds:
*Wickets are of less importance so we can consider lay bowling team on wickets @1.3x in first 10 overs.*Any 1.2x if comes early is proved a good lay if both are good teams because only one good over can change the odds
............................................
Predicted target odds
It is not easy to predict in starting matches because all teams are new but imo odds are going to be around evens on 160 score if almost equal teams are playing (In recently played ICL it was very difficult to predict because big difference in teams ,like for 180 odds was 1.1x at innings break where is in last Twenty20 world cup it was around 1.5x because all teams played in that tournament was quality teams >full strength team from test playing nations).
Main points for predicted target odds:
>Pitch type.
>Ground size and history (high scoring or low scoring ground).
>Market mood (heavily favouring one team or not).
>Home or away team.
>Both team batting & bowling strength.
>Both team records against each other.
>Day/Night effect on matches specially in chase and due factor.
...............................
I want to mention here that first week matches are for small stake trading and to make a strategy for next matches.
Because in every team there are unknown players.
So Predicted target odds is difficult to predict in early matches like for tomorrow match i don't have fair idea about odds on score 170 if Kolkata bat first (is it going to be 1.7x or 1.4x and even 1.2x is possible).
........................................
Volatile market strategy:
Possibility of volatile market in each match.
Best it to avoid trading at that time but if you want to trade at that time small lay anyteam 1.2x or below.
Why:
Market is volatile because odds are changing rapidly on wickets and runs means short odds are lengthening and long odds are becoming short.
So there are three benefits of this strategy:
First benefit is if that trade goes against use then loss in minimum because we layed short odds.
Second is big profit is expected every time and the third one and most important is you can close that trade easily anytime like if you layed 100@1.22 then chances of back at 1.14-1.18 is there everytime...............
Apart from this always try to go with bowl team in tense situation at 7+ or lay bat team at 1.1x.
.......................................................
When to lay:
Most important point because this creates the difference between mug punting and smart trading.Always try to take momentum odds i.e after boundaries or wickets.
1st Innings:
1.Batting team after flying start in low odds in 1st 5 overs or after 4-5 wickets in low odds in middle overs.
2.Bowling team upto 3 wickets in low odds in 1st 10 overs.
Second innings:
1.Low chase :
wait for batting team 1.0x after 2 wickets because even after 2 wickets odds are same as start but chances of drift is more after 2 wickets.
2.High chase :
Wait for batting team in low odds if good start.
....................................
Random general tips:
>While Laying bowling team 1.2x:Consider who is coming next or whether big hitter batsman are remaining or not .
>Wait for anyteam 1.3x is best policy in Twenty20.
>Spin bowling around 10-15 overs is crucial in both innings.So teams having good spinners are backable at that time.
>Chasing :60 runs in 6 overs looks big but 40 in 3 doesn't looks big if wickets in hand so can consider lay bowling team 1.1x in this situation.
>Batting team 1.0x-1.2x odds in chase is going to be very good trading opportunity specially after 3 wickets and 90+ runs required at 8+ runrate because at this runrate it is not easy to score in any format of the game or i can say should not be a 1.1x call.
>Selective trading in selective matches is best for long term.
>Advance lay/back plan with stop loss is must because there is generally no win trade is seen in Twenty20 matches and few ticks profit on each side is going to be main strategy.More profit on favourite team is considerable.
..................................................
Advance lay/back plans and stop loss:
Other important point or most important aspect of trading specially in limited overs game. It is human tendency that we all close win trade early and let lose trade run long. Like if layed at 1.2 then back at 1.3 or 1.4 but if it goes against us then wait for miracle. Common problem with everyone and i think solution for this is mechanical trading (frankly from my personal experience there is loss whenever i deviated from it or very small profit instead of good plan). So always follow advance lay/back plans with strict stop loss and it is the way for success in long run.
For example if any team batting first in a Twenty20 match has a flying start and the odds are 1.4x in 4th over. As per plan we layed that team for 200@1.44, now back plan is important. Suppose after 1st wickets odds reached to 1.6x then it is sensible to back 120% or 240@1.62 because in Twenty20 wickets are of less importance than in any other format of the game .For this place advance back trade of 240@1.62 is required because odds changes within seconds to 1.5x (some time without a ball been bowled) and then try to lay/back 1.4x-1.6x again.
*Also take stop loss if required, suppose if set at 6-8 ticks is must when trade looking to going against us (we've seen in recent ICL matches Lahore odds shorten to 1.0x within few overs in start) .
So back plan may be to back 80% at above 20-25 ticks (take early profit) or back 120% at above 20-25 ticks and try to repeat that.
......................................................
DON'T's In Twenty20 Trading
Please avoid these situations which can lead to poor house:
1.Never back short odds at anytime of match (1.0x to 1.3x) .
2.Don't allow lose trade to run long.
3.Avoid over trading and over staking.
4.Don't chase losses.
Please visit regular for preview and strategy for matches.
Thanks for visit.
All the best and good luck to all.
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