Friday, October 19, 2007

What Is Free Lay And Why It Exists:Reconstructed

Hello and welcome back.It is officially now that this blog is on cricket trading.When i started this blog i want to cover some other sports on which i sometimes trade but i found it difficult to get in at micro level like cricket,so i dropped idea to cover other sports.
I love cricket to watch and play.I likes to loft balls out of the ground and a handy medium fast bowler on club/college level. :-)
Nowdays plays less due to busy schedules.
So basically I'm a cricket lover.That's why i decided to trade only on cricket.

Now come to the main topic that what is 'Free Lays' and why it 'Exists'
Although i posted it before but i want a repost on it or a reminder post.
What Is Free Lay:
Free lay is the odds generally short which have great potential of upward move than downward move and best range is 1.2x to 1.4x zone.It may shorten but not more than 20% and may remained unchanged for a long period inplay or prematch.
For eg. any team chasing 280 in 50 over match and at some stage like 30 overs is 151/3 and odds are 1.25
Equation is:
130 runs needed in 20 overs at 6.5/over
Most of the times it looks easy but if you follow cricket it seldom happened swiftly like chasing team wins one way after 3 wickets in high chase games.like i said odds may reach to 1.1x zone but any wicket or maiden over and odds back in 1.2x zone and if 2 0r 3 quick wickets at that time then flip flop happens.
It was just a example of a oneday (50 over) game and these 'Free Lays' we may find in any form of cricket at many occasions.
Although as i said many times chances are more in high or low chase matches and most of the times it is in batting team low odds.

Take another example:
1st Innings free lays by predict target odds:
Recently played ODI series between India and Australia whenever Aussies bat first and had flying start there odds reaches in 1.3x zone simply because market mood is that they will score more than 300+ and win from here like 70/1 after 12 overs.
They won from these positions except last match (7th ODI) but there odds reached from 1.3x to 2.0+ in most matches.
So if you understand the basic that at 1.3x 'that was the lowest odds probably which market will offer' if they continue bat well from 70/1 score.
Australia scored 300+ in most of the matches but after some Hiccups or difficulty like lost wickets in middle.
I hope you understand my point.

Why Free Lay Exists:
Answer to this question is simple i think:
1.World betting market open odds for any event for *End result* what is most likely.During inplay it is also seen.
2.Large people still bet for outcome or most likely result of an event.
Because of this Willhill,Stanjames,paddypower still running.So can they offer 1.8+ on Australia when Australia and india playing at start?Definitely not.

These are two simple reasons that why free lay opportunity exists either inplay or prematch.It is up to you to find it.

P.S:
This blog is mainly on cricket but there must be 'Free Lays' opportunities in other sports like Tennis,Football or Rugby etc. also exists.If you trade on them try to find them by your experiences.
That's all for now please send your suggestions/comments on how to find Free Lays. :-)
See you tomorrow.
Good day and best of luck.

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