IPL : Punjab v Chennai -2nd Semifinal, 31st May {Inplay}

3rd Update :
Chennai 15/1 in 3rd over.
Last lay gone well.Infact last 2 low odds performed very well.
Plan is to lay again at 1.05 if comes in next 5 overs.
Gl
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2nd update :
Punjab 112/8 in 20 overs.
Odds 1.12
Well plan is:
1.Lay Chennai 1.05 if comes in 1st 5 overs.Take profit whenever you get chance.
Gl
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1st Update :
Punjab batting first and score is 71/7 in 16th over.
Odds Chennai 1.07 as favourites.
Imo a good lay because even at score 90 we may get 1.06 to back.
So lay now with back plan all at 1.14
Good luck.
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Hello and welcome to 2nd semifinal trading strategy for 1st innings.
I always believe that the matches in which one team is strong favourites prematch proves very good for trading in any format of the game if there is not much difference in the teams.Even in these matches i prefer strong team to bat first for free lays.
Why ?
Answer is simple.Let's look at the odds for this match.Punjab favourites at 1.56 presently.If they bat first and flying start then odds may shorten to 1.3x quickly which is going to be a free lay for 5 overs atleast and we can trade out at same odds after some time if no profit from trade but if wickets or some tight overs then we can take profit quickly.

Later on if they continue to bat well then we may see 1.1x around 15 overs onwards which is going to be a another good free lay.
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Yesterday in 1st semifinal i predicted 1.5x odds on 200 score (Rajasthan batting first) and it was almost same (192 score and Rajasthan traded at 1.64 at innings break).So Rajasthan at 1.4x/1.5x was a good free lay in that match which has very little downward possible movement.
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So plan for 1st innings is :

(A) If Punjab bat first :

(2 Free lays expected.First in 1-10 overs and another one in 11-20 overs).

1.Lay Punjab 1.35 if comes in 1st 10 overs with back plan all above 20-30 ticks.
Trade out at same odds or take stop loss 6-8 ticks after sometime.
2.Lay Punjab 1.15 or below if comes around 13-17 overs (consider lay 1.2x if comes after 3 wickets and runrate below 9).Take profit or trade out after sometime.

*Try to repeat trades.Like lay 1.3x and back 1.5x again if 1st trade gone successful.

These are going to be free lays which depends on good start by Punjab.But if bad start then plan is :

3.Back Punjab 2+ if comes in 1st 5 overs with 30 ticks stop loss.Take profit whenever you get chance.

4.Lay Chennai around 1.45 if come anytime upto 4 wickets but score 70+ with stop loss 12 ticks and take profit whenever you get chance.
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(B) If Chennai bat first :

This one is interesting because instead of free lay we may find free back in Punjab odds if Chennai start well.

1.Back Punjab 1.8 and then 2.2 if comes in 1st 10 overs.Imo upto 180 score odds are going to be evens at innings break and i don't think Chennai is capable to score 180+.So it may prove safe trade although my advise is to take stop loss or trade out at same odds around 10th over if Chennai continue to bat well because anything is possible in cricket.

2.Lay Chennai 1.6x if comes in 13-17 overs as free lay.Take profit whenever you get chance and stop loss 16 ticks.

Again these trades depends on good start by Chennai.But if bad start then plan is :

3.Lay Punjab 1.2x if comes in 1st 10 overs upto 2 wickets.Take profit whenever you get chance and stop loss 8 ticks.

4.Lay Punjab 1.2-1.3 in middle overs if score 70+ after 3 wickets.Like score 70/3 in 12 overs.Reason for this trade is that Chennai middle order is strong than top order.Consider stop loss 6-8 ticks and take profit whenever you get chance.

So we have plans for each situation (good or bad start) anyone bat first.

I will post update inplay.
All the best and good luck.
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P.S :
We are trying to cover some county (domestic) matches.That includes Friends Provident Trophy,Pro40 and other matches after IPL in this blog.

Australia v West Indies Test match we are covering in live trading room.If you want to join then please see details at tradeoncricket.com

Any comments/suggestion most welcome.
Thanks for reading.