Wednesday, November 14, 2007

India v Pakistan,4th ODI Prematch Homework

Hello friends,
Before going into this match i want to say that 3rd ODI was ideal for our strategy/basics(i know it is easy to say after seeing result but i will try to explain it in detail in this post).There was no inplay post or trading from my side.But my friend saved historic odds from odds.bestbetting.com site and after seeing that i can say that was a perfect match for trading for us.
How?
India batted first and post 294 and won that match by 46 runs.
India odds in 1st inning starting overs (15 overs) shorten upto 1.5x those who are regular here knows well that our main plan for 1st innings at this time by predict target odds is to lay batting team in these odds because market mood at that time is they will score 300 atleast.Yes India scored near about that (294) but there odds drifted to 2.2+ in middle because of wickets.Even if India scored 325 and that too swiftly i don't think India odds in innings break is going to be less than 1.4x because
(1)Pakistan chased 320+ in last game successfully.
(2)Market always thinks that it is a good pitch to bat on and other team can also score 320+
So it was a good free lay in which chance of downward move was 10-15 ticks maximum but upward move was much higher.
Please stay for more important point at this time:
If India scored 350+ or there odds shorten to 1.2x without any drift?
Here comes the advance lay/back plan which i insists many time.
Like if we layed India at 1.58 that time than back plan if odds shorten was 1.42 which is also stop loss or exit point.
This was the 1st innings highlight of that match.
Now take 2nd inning:
Pakistan started chase well and scored 70 quick runs in nearly 7 overs.India odds drifted to 2.2+ this time and those who are regular here also knows that our 2nd innings plan in high chase is back bowling team at 2.0+ if comes in 10 overs due to flying start.Again question arise here is if Pakistan continue to bat well and India odds starting to drift more than what to do?
Answer is again that advance lay/back plan or stop loss and then wait for batting team in low odds to find free lay with required runs,run rate and wickets at that time (fingers crossed which pays us most of the times or infact our main strategy in high chase or low chase matches and only difference is that in low chase we may find batting team in short odds very early than high chase).
4th ODI homework and plan:
Well what i typed so far in more than half hour (my speed is really very slow) is again going to be plan for this match with slight change because it is a day/night match(I will try my best for inplay post tomorrow).
Like try to find free lay in batting team in 1.5x lower range or below (1.6x for Pakistan) in starting overs (15) in first inning and in 2nd inning wait for chase team in low odds and if it is a high chase then consider backing bowling team 1.9+ if comes in first 10 overs as a good trading opportunity.

Trading plans seldom changes in one-days only odds range changes with teams,venue,pitch and day/night effect like if Australia and India playing in which Australia odds are mostly in 1.5x or 1.6x zone in start than plan to lay Australia if they bat first range drops to 1.4x or 1.3x after good start.
Good luck.
P.S:
My main strategy in cricket trading is based on laying batting team mostly which is obviously backing bowling team in certain situations but recently i worked on 'can we find good free lay in bowling team odds also' and if yes then in which situation.This i will try to explain in next post.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

dip, super postings,keep it up! one question for you, when you say wait for batting team in low odds to find free lay with required runs, run rate and wickets at that time, how do we use run rate and wickets etc to decide what to do? i think it was the 2nd odi between india/pak and pak were chasing just over 300. required run rate at one stage was over 9, pak run rate was only 6-7 with i think 4/5 wickets in hand and they still managed to win. by reading these figures, one would think that india should win, or is there something that i am missing?

cheers Vijay

dip said...

Vijay,
Thanks for comment.
The question which you asked is also linked to what i mentioned in this post (can we find free lay in bowling team low odds also?).
But the situation which you mentioned in 2nd ODI (Pakistan need 9/over with 4/5 wickets in hand from i think 12 overs) at that time India (bowling team) was favourites at 1.0x not batting team(Pakistan)
Although i not traded on that match but i likes to collect odds history of matches in which i not traded for future reference from different sources.
And by that i can say India at 1.0x or above like 1.1x was a good free lay simply because Pakistan had wickets in hand and required runs was below 100.

As for wait for batting team in low odds to find free lay it always worth.Even in this match which Pakistan won in last.Pakistan odds shorten to 1.4x at one stage but due to wickets and run rate their odds drifted to 4+ or 5+ again.So anyone who waited for batting team in low odds and traded only at this time ended up good green on any result.
I hope you got my point.
Cheers