Saturday, November 17, 2007

Test Matches Update

Update,14:00 GMT
South Africa v New Zealand,2nd Test
(day-2,post tea)

SA 263/3 63 ov. Lead by 75 runs.
Odds SA 1.20
SA odds may short by 1 tick on every 10 runs from now on even wickets fall in between.
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Hello everyone,
Tough days for me. Suffering from acute respiratory tract Infection and Pleurisy which is causing painful breathing.Also having continues internet connection problem.Hoping everything will be settled soon.
Somehow managed for update post on test matches.
Test Matches:
Aus/Lanka and SA/NZ 2nd Test matches,i advised prematch to lay both (Australia in 1.47 and South Africa in 1.61) which i think going well so far.Now further plan for both test matches:
1.Aus/Lanka>Australia declared at 542/5 and Lanka at stumps are 30 without loss.Current odds are Aus 1.72,Draw 2.48 and Lanka 44.
Sri lanka need 312 more runs to avoid follow on.We have 2 options now either to trade on Aus odds or Draw odds.Australia may go defensive tomorrow if Sri Lanka bat well if only one wicket before lunch tomorrow because it is only 2 match series and they have already won 1st test and leading series by 1-0.
Pitch is looking good for batting.
Current plan is to take all green position now like if layed at 1.4x back 80% at 1.7x
2nd Day plan:
(A)Wait for either Australia or Draw odds in 1.3x range then trade with lay and back plan 1.3-1.6 (80%) with stop loss plan 5-7 ticks.
(B)Wait for Australia Odds 2.1+ if comes then back and lay plan on wicket fall 2.1-1.7 before lunch.
overall i think once draw will reach at 1.25-1.35 it will stay there for long and consider that as free lay.Weather is also a big factor in this match so keep an eye on weather sites.
2.SA/NZ>SA odds drifted to 1.6x to 2.3x yesterday.hope everyone taken all green position yesterday.
Current score is SA batting at 128/2 (36 ov) trail by 60 runs(NZ 1st innings 188) and odds are SA 1.25,Draw 6.2 and NZ 18.
Next 2 hour is going to decisive in this test match.If SA managed to score 100 more runs in these 2 hours with only 1 or 2 wickets then their price may shorten to 1.1x and draw will drift.Plan is to wait for SA odds in 1.1x zone and small lay at that time for 1 hour or 4 ticks stop loss.But if no wicket than wait for 1.0x odds on day third.
Well you may think why i'm not considering to back SA at 1.2x now or later with stop loss 4 ticks.The reason is simple that cricket is a funny game and anything can happen anytime like South Africa may collapse in 60-70 runs.
All the best.

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