Thursday, January 10, 2008

South Africa v West Indies,3rd Test {Inplay}

2nd Update:
WI 104/7 in 27 overs.
Odds SA 1.09
Another West Indies batting collapse.
Pitch looking difficult to bat on.
Now best option is to wait for SA innings.
This game is not over but i don't want to increase my liability and want to wait and watch.

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1st Update:
Early news is South Africa won the toss and elected to field first.
Pitch report:Commentators view is that it is good for batting.
Weather:chances of rain more on Sunday and Monday.So is this going to be another weather trading?
Teams:Gayle is not playing.
Anyway plan is same which i posted earlier before start of the match.
Good luck.

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Hello and welcome once again.
Plenty of flipflops in last test but due to work commitments traded very little on that.
Anyway cricket played almost daily and hopefuly we may find some good opportunities in every match :-).
My target is:
If i trade on 10 matches.
>200 or more Profit in 5
>100 or less loss in 5
Final: 500 or more profit,fingers crossed.
..............
Test cricket is very good for free lays specially when one team is strong favourite.But it needs patience.Frankly some things are easy to say than do like if you layed any selection in 1.30 as free lay and after 1 hour or 15 overs odds shorten to 1.18 then it is difficult to stick with that although we know it is another free lay and even better than previous.
I've noticed this many times that if free lay comes early in match eg. first 2 days of test or in 1st innings of ODI it is generally safe than on the last day of the test or last overs in limited overs game.Though ROI is more in last.
I will discuss more on it later in a new post which is almost completed.Title of that post is 'short odds and remaining time/overs relation'.
...............

Now plan for 3rd Test for day 1 is:
I will update as soon as any other free lay or good trading seen.
1st Day Plan:
Current odds are SA 1.46,Draw 4.3 and WI 10.5
(A).If SA bat first:
1.Lay SA 1.3x or below as free lay if comes before lunch and 1.34 or below anytime on day 1.
2.Back SA 1.8+ if comes before tea and back 2.4+ whenever comes.
3.Back Draw 5+ if comes before lunch.
4.Lay Draw 1.5x or below anytime on day 1 as free lay.
5.Back WI 15+ if comes after good start by SA in 1st 15 overs as a good trading opportunity or after 3 wickets anytime on day 1.
6.Lay WI 3.5 or below if comes before lunch.

(B).If WI bat first:
1.Back SA 1.7+ before lunch.
2.Lay SA 1.28 or below anytime.
3.Lay Draw 2.2 or below.
4.Back Draw 6+ anytime (not after WI collapse).
5.Lay WI 5.5 or below if comes.
6.Back WI 20+ if comes before tea.
Frankly these plans are according to market mood and behaviour although we don't know exactly about how pitch will behave and weather forecast now.So please asses situation at that time when these odds comes,like if you see heavy rain then don't lay draw in 2.2x.
All the best.
P.S:
Please check updates on day 2 and onwards of this match and also for Australia/India 3rd Test which will start from January,16th at http://tradeonsports.forumotion.com (Live cricket trading room).
Lastly many thanks for well wishes and comments on 'Live cricket trading room'.

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