India v Sri Lanka, 4th ODI -27th August -Replay {Inplay}

9th Update :

India 224/4

Plan is :
1.Lay India 300@1.33 if comes with back plan 250@1.5x Stop loss at innings break.
2.Back India 100@1.8 if comes and let it run.

Gl
.............
8th Update
India 167/3
odds 1.58

Stop loss point.
Next plan :
1.Lay India 300@1.33 if comes with back plan 250@1.5x
Stop loss at innings break.
Gl
.........................
7th Update :

India 131/3
India 1.95

Our last trade hit stop loss.

Next plan :

1.Lay India 200@1.72 as free lay with 14 ticks stop loss.
If stop loss not hit then green up whenever you get chance.

2.Back Lanka 200@2 if comes after 4 wickets with stop loss 20 ticks.
Let it run if stop loss not hit.

Gl

Predicted target odds once again :

(A) If India bat first :

310 1.2x
290 1.3x
270 1.5x
250 1.8x
230 3.2
210 6
190 9

*All are India odds.

IMO India a good freelay @1.7x because they may not score 265+ and no need to take stop loss (India odds are not going to be less than 1.7 at innings break) but then it will be gamble.Stop loss is must even if value need to be surrendered.


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6th Update :

India 104/3

Plan is same.

Back Lanka 200@1.70 if comes with stop loss 20 ticks.

Lay 185@1.9 if odds drifts.
.............

5th Update :

India 82/3

Plan is same.

One more plan Lay Lanka 100@1.2x if comes just after 4th wicket if score 110+

Back plan all above 20 ticks and stop loss 6-8 ticks.
GL


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4th Update :
India 51/2
Lanka 1.45
Cover some liability now and then back Lanka 200@1.7+ if comes with stop loss 20 ticks this time.
If stop loss not hit then green up whenever you get chance.
Presently no plan to lay Lanka big because it may prove very costly if batting collapse.
We may consider lay Lanka around 1.2x according to situation.
All the best.
...............
3rd Update :
India 33/0 in 8th over.

Lanka 1.79
Plan is same.
Good luck.
.............
2nd Update :

India batting first and Lanka 1.9 now.
Back 200 now with stop loss 40 ticks.
If stop loss not hit then green up whenever you get chance.
Gl
.................
1st Update :

Good news.Weather is clear today and every chance of full play.
Gl
.................
Update...................

27th August :

Match replayed today.
Plan is same if 50 overs game.
I'll post other plan before start.
All the best.
................

Price graph link :
http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com//betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=21167701&selectionId=7337&timeZone=Europe/London&region=GBR&locale=en&brand=betfair&currency=GBP


Thanks



.................
1st Update :
Preview is same like last match because venue,team and conditions are same.

1.Day-Night Game ,toss winner may chose to bat first.

2.Above 250 is difficult to chase under lights.

3.Good batting pitch but both teams batsman struggling to score in series so far.Bowlers dominating.

4.Weather:
Chances of rain so reduced over game or D/L might play part.
*presently raining for last half hours but expected to be cleared soon.

5.Teams :
Expected to be same.

6.Market mood :
With Lanka no doubt even after two successive defeat.
Strong prematch favourites @1.6x

7.Live stream of match :
You can find it at chavster.ulmb.com , justin.tv or cricketlivelinks.com
...............
Summary is :

Win toss , bat first , score 230+ and win match.

Both teams struggling for good start so good strategy is to back bowling team 2+ in starting overs of 1st innings.
................
Predicted target odds :

(A) If India bat first :

310 1.2x
290 1.3x
270 1.5x
250 1.8x
230 3.2
210 6
190 9

*All are India odds.

(B) If Lanka bat first :

310 1.2x
290 1.3x
270 1.4x
250 1.6x
230 2.8x
210 5
190 7

*All are Lanka odds.
...............

1st innings plan :

As you can see from predicted target odds that present odds ( Lanka favourites @1.6x ) suggesting that if India bat first then they are going to score 220-230 and if Lanka bat first then expected score is 250 atleast at which Lanka odds are going to be same as prematch 1.6x

.................
(A) If India bat first :

Plan is :

1.Back 200@1.8 Lanka if comes in 1st 15 overs with stop loss 40 ticks means if India become favourites @1.8 then take stop loss by backing India.
Reason for this trade is market generally hold Lanka team price at this level (1.8x) for 5-7 overs because of spinners act from 15 overs onwards.It is like free back and consider close at same odds with minimum profit or loss after 5-7 overs if no profit from this trade.

If stop loss not hit then take profit whenever you get chance.

(B) If Lanka bat first :

Plan is :

1.Lay 300@1.44 Lanka if comes in 1st 15 overs with stop loss 14 ticks.
Take profit whenever you get chance.
So far these 2 plan and I'll post other plan after 5-7 overs play.
Gl
................
Hello and welcome back.
India leading series by 2-1
4th match today.
Scheduled start 09:00 GMT

Please check back after sometime for preview and plan.
Thanks
................
England v South Africa 2nd ODI also today which we are covering in live trading room.
If you want to follow advise in this match then please visit http://www.tradeoncricket.com to know how you can join us.