Hello friends,
Predict target odds is no doubt the most powerful tool for 1st innings trading for one-day and Twenty20 cricket matches(limited overs cricket).Applied it in past also but frankly realized true value after Twenty20 world cup.
How it works:
It works best when team batting first bat well in starting overs and one team is short priced.
For eg. South Africa prematch odds for 2nd ODI with New Zealand is 1.44 as favourites.Suppose SA bat first in this match and start well and score something like 40/0 in 6 overs than there odds will be shorten to 1.26 because market prediction is 280+ score at that time.So these odds are for 280+ score.Now two possibilities are there:
1.They continue to bat well and score 300 around and odds will shorten upto 1.20 without drift.
2.Wickets and slow rate mainly between 10-40 overs and odds drifted to 1.44 during that period when it is looking they are not going to score more than 260 which was the original prediction.
Generally it is seen that run rate drops in middle overs when spin bowlers operating with wickets.So if we lay SA at 1.26 when score was 40/0 in 6 overs chance of loss (if odds shorten which is generally maximum 6 ticks) is very low and chances of profit (if odds drifted) is more.
We can also apply this formula if New Zealand bat first and start well in start and SA odds drifts.
Pitch,ground size,teams strength and market mood are some other important factors for predict target odds.
I agree that it may go sometimes totally against us but it happens rarely and with strict stop loss plan we can minimize loss.
Try it in next match.
All the best.
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6 comments:
Dip,
Do you use the spreadmarkets to assume what target run rate will be?
I must also congratulate you on a very good blog
Dave
Hi Dip
Great advice as always.
I was going to ask the same question about using the spreads as a guide, or do you take into account the average score for the venue etc.
Thanks
S.
mate you seem to be confusing "chances", i.e. the odds of something happening, with "upside", i.e. the profit if a result does go your way. in this case you are saying that the odds will go out much further if things go your way than they will come in if things go against you. what you need to factor in is how likely it is that things will go for/against you. so, simplistically, if the odds are say twice as likely to shorten as they are to lengthen, you would be looking for the corresponding lengthening in odds to be twice the potential shortening.
if you see what i mean...
Thanks for comments.
What is going to be odds at innings break of team 'A' who is batting first or team 'B' (bowling team) at different scores(predicted traget odds) the best parameter is total innings runs bet which is released just after toss by online bookmaker site like stanjames.com
example:
1st ODI SA/NZ in which NZ bat first and odds was SA 1.3x as favourites after toss.Total innings runs offered that time was around 225-230.
Add 0.2 on plus 20 runs like:
250 1.5x
270 1.7x
290 evens
Less 0.1 on minus 20 runs:
210 1.2x
190 1.1x
170 1.0x
(all are predicted SA odds)
NZ scored 248 (fall between 1.3x-1.5x so odds at innings break was 1.4x)
most of the time odds are set by this formula but sometime other factors as i mentioned before becomes more important like if pitch looking very difficult for batting (turn or bounce) than even at 190+ score market offers more than original prediction on that score (happened in Lanka recently,in 1st 3 ODI between Lanka/England.All first 3 ODI played at ?Dambulla and pitch was very slow and turning).
Important thing from trading point of view is that if we guess the low and high range odds of batting team first then trading in first innings becomes very easy and safe.
Dip
Anonymous>As for chances i think sky is the limit for upward move:-) and for downward move it is few ticks in 1st innings.Like from 40/0 SA may collapse and all out somewhere around 110 which is not a rare thing in cricket.
Hi Dip
Thanks for the explanation on predicting the target odds.
Cheers
S.
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