Hello and welcome to our 1st prematch homework of this month.It is also the 1st match of 5 one-day matches series between India and Pakistan in India.
So we don't have any data for this series so far about teams performance.But from recent performance of both teams we can say it is difficult to pick any favourite.Odds for 1st ODI is 1.81 India as favourites.
It is still not clear that whether i will involve from start or not because it is too early but if i will involve than my plan is:
1.Mood of the market is to go with India so if india bat first try to find free lay in India odds at 1.6x or below if comes anytime in 1st 15 overs after good start.
2.Key players:Sehwag is not playing which i think is a setback for India.Shoaib Akhtar is back which is a huge bonus for Pakistan.
3.Venue/pitch:Match will be played at Guwahati where India played 6 matches,won 3 and lost 3.
Ground records is that it is not a big score ground and 240-250 may be a good score to defend.But the most important factor is morning due which will help seamers in start as it is not a day/night match.
4.Weather:It is fine.
Overall conclusion is lay India now (if you are going to trade from start) and than wait for toss and if India bat first because of Sehwag and Akhtar factor plus morning due effect let it run.India may be traded at evens in start.
If Pakistan bat first back India (prematch lay plus 20% extra) and than wait.Lastly if Afridi opens and some fireworks than lay Pakistan in 1.6x-1.7x if comes in 1st 15 overs.In short back bowling team in 2.2+ in 1st inning starting overs.My view is that Pakistan bowling is better than India.As always i will wait for 2nd inning for most of the trading unless good free lay or trading opportunity in 1st inning.
Good luck.
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2 comments:
hi dip,
i love reading your blogg, its always very informative. could you tell me how the state of the pitch can effect the score, i.e. who does a slow pitch favour, who does a fast pitch favour, cloud cover effects, moisture etc. as i have never played cricket it would be good to hear from someone like yourself who seems very knowledgable on the sport!!
thanks vj
Hi VJ,
Nice to see comment and thanks for visit.Well the question you asked about type of pitch i think sub-continet pitches are usually slow ones which favours spin bowling.Spin bowlig is also known to be sub-continent teams strength and they try to prepare pitch according to their strength.Australia,South Africa and New Zealand or you can say apart from sub-continent pitches are fast which favours fast bowling.As for cloud cover,moisture it favours swing bowling means fast or medium fast bowlers.Hope you will find it useful.
All the best.
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