3rd Update
South Africa 209/50 overs.
Odds NZ 1.74
Plan is:
1.Lay NZ in 1.3x if comes in 1st 5 overs after flying start.
2.Back NZ at 2.1+ for quick trade upto first 2 wickets.
3.Lay NZ 1.2x in 1st 15 overs after 2 wicket as free lay.
4.Lay NZ 1.1x after 3 wickets with 100+ runs reqd. anytime.
Basically plan is to wait for some wickets then consider lay batting team in low odds.
Good luck.
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2nd Update
SA 48/3 in 15 overs.
Odds NZ 1.74
Gates are totally opened.Consider back NZ 2.1+ if comes in next 10 overs as a good trading opportunity.This match looking like a low scoring match so best advise is to wait for 2nd innings for rest of trading unless you see very good trading opportunity as mentioned above or good free lay which will be SA 1.5x or below.
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1st Update
SA 18/2 in 6.4 overs.
Odds SA 1.87
Bad start and early filp flop.Because of this i always like short odds team to bat first.
Anyway now situation is tricky,one more wicket and New Zealand become favourites and very difficult recovery for SA.My advise is take profit now.Wait for some recovery then back SA 1.8+ if it looks they may score atleast 230.Lay SA 1.4x if comes before 25 overs as free lay.Good luck to all.
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Hello and welcome back.South Africa batting first and predicted target odds is:
SA bat first:
310 1.1x
290 1.2x
270 1.3x
250 1.5x
230 1.9x
210 2.3x
190 2.4x
so back SA 1.9+ or lay 1.3x whenever comes.
Remember it is a day nighter.
All the best.
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6 comments:
SA scored 209 for 9 off 50 overs; odds now 2.62 SA, not 2.3/2.4 predicted. Is this special circumstances in match or is adjustment needed to Predict Target Odds ?
Apologies ! Odds now settling around 2.44/2.46. Nice one Dip.
I've now traded out SA for profit at 2.36 during interval. No play and yet market falls from 2.62 to 2.36. Is this the power of "Find Free Lay" influencing the market ?
Hi Luis,
Sometimes market settles in innings break due to weight of money.It is not because of FFL :-)
Cheers
Hi Dip,
that seems a mighty big settling though. Would you have been confident enough in Predict Target Odds to back 2.62 at the end of the innings i.e. expecting market to drift down over interval with little risk of upward movement ?
There are many reasons for odds movement in innings break from my experience.
In this match i think main factors are:It is a day nighter so market assumed chase is not a cake walk at this score when pitch is looking tough to bat on,those who layed SA 1.3x prematch and not traded after that may want to take all green position in break,weight of money on SA and biggest factor i think is last 2 overs runs hangover.
Frankly i was expecting some correction but it was really big.
Many thanks for visit Luis.
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