Hello there,
There is a huge difference between gambling and trading and i think everyone knows it well.
Anyone can win 7/10 times in any sport in which he/she has some knowledge.
But the main thing ' Is 7 win profit is more than 3 losses everytime?'
I'm afraid not most of times.So why this happens:
1.Refusal to take all green position most of the times because we think game is over.
2.Refusal to take stop loss point or bail out position(exit point) and let the loss trade run and than wait for miracle.
3.Ego problem like i am not going to be on losing side and starts chasing at short odds.
4.Backing short odds.
I will take first point in detail(refusal of all green position) with example of cricket matches but i thing it applies in every sports trading.
1.One-day:In 3rd ODI which played recently (11th November) between India and Pakistan (although i not traded on that match but my friend saved historic odds from odds.bestbetting.com site)
India batted first and post 294.Pakistan began there chase well but India won in last.
Assume anyone book is 400 green on India and 1000 red on Pakistan when India odds are 1.07 means 1.08 to lay after 4 wickets in 2nd innings.At this point
the sensible thing is to lay India for 1000 at least to make book 320 green on India and 0 or no liability on Pakistan and then wait for 1.04 or less to further lay India to make equal green on any result.But what we do mostly is refuse to lay at these time and think game is over and lay this time is waste of money.
What actually happened is there was good 5th wicket partnership and India odds drifted to 1.3x zone again.At this time one who refuge to lay in 1.0x started worrying even if he knows India still is in driver seat but he has liability on Pakistan.
But other one who layed India at 1.0x means his book is 320 green India and no liability on Pakistan can wait or even think to back 1000 on India at 1.35 and his book become 670 green India and 1000 red Pakistan which gives him much safer position because he has backed India at 1.67 virtually for 1000 which is strong favourite at that time.
2.Take another example:
Australia in every match at 1.5x or above is safe gambling but refuse to lay them in 1.0x after backing at higher odds is surely pure gambling or stupidity(which i also do).
For example recently played 1st Test between Australia and Sri Lanka (traded on this match and other test only at day 1 and odds for this match roughly taken from betfair cricket forum).
Australia batted first and post huge score in 1st innings.There odds from start (1.5x) hardly drifted and after follow on and couple of wickets in Lanka 2nd inning reached to 1.0x zone on 3rd day but Australia odds drifted to 1.4x on 4th day because of weather threat and one good partnership in Sri Lanka 2nd innings.Now again one who refused to lay Australia at 1.0x when his book was good green on Australia found himself in difficult condition.
There are many examples like BFT highlighted in recent post that someone has backed Pakistan at 2.3x for 12k in 5th ODI with South Africa.Pakistan lost that match from 1.01 position and that person didn't layed Pak at 1.0x.
Although once any selection reached in short odds specially in 1.0x zone they hardly beaten in sports but if there is major drift or flip flop then one who had chance of all green position but refuse to take may find himself in difficult situation and may end with no profit or loss.
Take Ray (sports trader) example that how he is making consistent profit but with trading and not by gambling.
Other 3 points are equally important like prepare for loss in any event and try to minimize it by early stop loss or exit.Lastly never back short odds in sports you can earn most of the time but one loss may wipe all earnings.
Happy trading and good luck.
P.S:
I taken 2 matches as example in which team who won reached to 1.0x odds but it doesn't mean we always wait for all green position at these odds.It may be different according to our book and match situation.Like if book is +2k and -1k if team 'A' win and their odds are 1.20 to lay then try to make it atleast +1700 and +500 by laying 1.5k at 1.20 for all green book.
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7 comments:
Hi Dip i find your blog very informative i have provided the test match stats for tradeonsports but i am really more used to fixed odds betting than trading just one point what do you define as short odds i shall probably bach SA in the coming test @ 1.6 ish not something i do very often but to my mind that price is value as i feel they should be 1.4 - here is another extreme example i backed Durham to beat Glamorgan in a pro 40 match @ 1.2 because i thought they should have been 1.1 so in my mind they were value i realise this sort of bet is no use for trading but still think this approach can be correct very occasionally- what do you think ? cheers
Hi Nel,
Just take 3 examples:
1.First Test South Africa v New Zealand:
South Africa started as favourites at 1.6x but 1st day when they batted first and all out around 220 and their odds drifted to 2.2+ and New Zealand start well in 1st inning and SA odds further drifted to 2.4+ (so at this position one who backed SA at 1.6+ in start really find himself in difficult position or not)
2.Rugby world cup:don't know details but i think England won matches upto final when there opponents was too short. (so those who backed England opponents at 1.2x lost there money or not?)
3.Twenty20 world cup:Australia started at 1.0x favourites with their match against Zimbabwe and lost.
My main point is if you backed short odd selection like 1.3x or below mainly and they lost or drift the chances of profit in long term is less.
Australia lost many matches from 1.0x position.
India,Pakistan,South Africa lost to minnows in recent 50/50 cricket world cup.There are many example in history and i think on these matches anyone can loss his whole bank or 1 year profit anyday. All the best.
Want to add more on fixed odds betting.New Zealand in recent Rugby world cup.Many backed them for outright winner(?1.7x) and in every match(?1.2x) as value.But they didn't won the tournament.
Dip thanks for the reply and i agree with you 99% however i still feel that very occasionally low odds bets are value if you take 1/5 about a 1/10 shot then in the long run it will be profitable the problem of course is this is all opinion and one persons value back is another persons lay ! sa did drift to 2.4 in that 1st test but you had to be pretty quick to get it as they soon went long odds on ive backed sa @ 1.6 in the coming match no doubt the heavens will open! -however i may well lay Aus as a starting position in the other game
good luck
Dip thanks for the reply and i agree with you 99% however i still feel that very occasionally low odds bets are value if you take 1/5 about a 1/10 shot then in the long run it will be profitable the problem of course is this is all opinion and one persons value back is another persons lay ! sa did drift to 2.4 in that 1st test but you had to be pretty quick to get it as they soon went long odds on ive backed sa @ 1.6 in the coming match no doubt the heavens will open! -however i may well lay Aus as a starting position in the other game
good luck
Nel,
You are right that in 1st Test South Africa was value at 2.4 but the main thing which i want to highlight is that if we layed them at 1.6 in start(specially when they batting first and chances of odds shorten was less so it was a free lay) and then back all plus some more.Was't it risk free trade?
I'm also going to lay SA and Australia at start in 2nd test if they bat first but with aim to back them at higher odds if comes in 1st innings because they are most likely winners.
Excellent post. Finding value for trading is very difficult. I guiess you have to study the markets, although I guess cricket would be easier.
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