1st Update,Day 2
Sri Lanka 256/4 in 88 overs.
Odds Draw 1.19,Lanka 7 and England 34
New ball also not helping England which is the best and probably the last chance to come back in the game.
We've seen not much movement in the odds since start of play.
So when odds will move,specially Draw odds?
Answer is simple i think when England come to bat or heavy rain again.In first case upward move is expected and downward in later.
Wait is the only option now.
Good luck.
.................
Update, Day 2
06:50 GMT
Hello and welcome back.I've decided to stick with one post for whole Test match to maintain continuity in updates and comments.
Current score is Lanka 191/4 in 71 overs.
Odds are Draw 1.19,Lanka 7.4 and England 22
So far:
Sri Lanka attitude is negative no doubt.England lacks penetration (Panesar big disappointed).Weather forecast is bad.
Combination of all these is Draw as most likely outcome.
But as a rule i never back 1.2-1.5 when so much time left in the match.
So my plan is to find free lay in Draw around 1.15 today (when new ball taken or England is expected to bat soon) with weather watch.Lay Draw or back Lanka is almost equal at that time.
Good luck.
Waiting for your comments.
................
Hello and welcome to our 3rd test inplay post.
Its 06:15 GMT now.
Match scheduled to begin at 06:30 GMT.
Early news is that England won the toss and elected to bowl first means Lanka batting first.
Odds are
Draw 1.65
Lanka 3.85
England 6.8
Weather is the biggest factor in this match.
Going with Lanka and backed them at 4.2 just before the toss. because my logic was that whoever bat first Lanka price stay for sometime at current price.Reason is if Lanka bat first and lost quick wickets then market think that it is a bad pitch to bat on and generally home team price not drifts in these conditions from this range.
2nd reason is if England bat first Lanka price definately shorten even without wickets in start and after wickets it may shorten upto 3.0
So my first small trade is backing Lanka at 4.2
..............
Other plan for today is:
1.Consider Draw lay in 1.2x as free lay or back 3+ as good trading opportunity if comes with situation at that time.
2.Small Lay England in 4.5x if comes.
Though i don't want to touch England odds much.
3.Lanka back 6+ if comes with situation at that time.
Good luck.
...............
P.S:
Gilchrist is not playing in 3rd ODI (Australia v New Zealand) which is a huge factor in start if Australia bat first.So layed Australia in 1.22 as prematch free lay.
Wish me good luck :-).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
7 comments:
Been reading here a while, but don't comment usually, because I don't know enough to do so frankly.
Good to see cricket being played in Galle after the Tsunami disaster.
The last couple of wickets today were much needed by England, otherwise the series looked over. I note you took the price on Sri Lanka. Must be in a positive position by now.
Hi Dip, great blog as usual. What would you consider to back out of in the Aus game if you layed them at 1.22 ? Also in the England game if you layed the draw at 1.2x ?
well i guess 100 % ROI is the minimum at this level of course before greening up (so if its a lay 1,2 you need a back 1,4)
Sand Racer,
Thanks for visit.It is indeed,after Tsunami disaster Galle is reconstructed and in great shape once again.Although this match looks to be badly hit by rain so it is a bit disappointed.
Trading in this match is also going to be more like weather trading so i want to avoid any long term position.
Cheers.
Talkbet,
Congratulations for 'Powerstats'.They are really going nicely.
My plan at these odds in both game eg.
if i layed at 1.20 for 1k then if price drift suppose to 1.30
1.Back 1200@1.30 and my book position is 160 green on given result and 200 red on other results.Means i backed Draw@1.80
Then i want to let it run with stop loss 2.2
Same in Australia match also because i think most likely outcome is Draw in Test and Australia in ODI.
Though some changes according to situation at that time,which frankly i don't know in advance like if Australia bat first and quick wickets in start then i may back less at 1.30 and wait for some more drift.
2.Try to repeat it or take all green position when price shorten very low eg. 1.0x (also depends on situation)
3.Stop loss around 1.15 with situation at that time.
Big 'if' in all but definately it is sensible to go with most likely outcome by laying them in low and backing at high (all+some more).
Cheers
Hi Harvy,
You are right that mostly we expect 100% ROI at these odds but the plan which i described above is worked very well in recent matches in these odds because sometimes we wait for 1.4x after laying in 1.2x but these odds never comes to back.
Thanks for visit.
Cheers.
I think it is the best strategy to trade these odds.
Paul
Post a Comment