Monday, December 31, 2007

LIVE CRICKET TRADING ROOM

Dear Reader,
I hope by now you have found my blog to be very useful in highlighting the low risk trading opportunities shown by trading on Test match and limited overs cricket and indeed I hope that you have profited from my advice.
Earlier in the year I was approached by Pete Nordsted of the blog http://tradeonsports.blogspot.com/ who suggested that we start a live cricket trading room. He felt that my methods were extremely successful and that a live trading room would be very popular. I thought about it for a while and have decided to go ahead with this project.
As many of you will have seen from this blog I believe I have an eye for knowing the right time and odds to LAY teams during a match. These trades are always ‘low risk’ with the potential for much larger gains. Indeed in some games like the recent India v Pakistan ODI & recent Test matches we have gained substantial profits.

In the live trading room we will be covering Test Matches One Day Internationals; Twenty20 matches International and Domestic, Pro40 & Friends Provident Trophy.


I will instruct exactly when you should Lay, place your stop loss and indeed exit the trade.


You can join this service for £20 a month. The first months service will start on 20th January 2008 with the South Africa v West Indies ODI and finish on 29th February. From then on subscription will be by the calendar month.

So confident are we to the profitability of this service that should you join the monthly service and not show a profit during the month. You will either receive a choice of a £10 refund or the next months service entirely free.

Please note so as not to effect the market numbers joining this service will be strictly limited.

If you are interested in joining this service please go to http://tradeonsports.co.uk/cricket.htm to register your interest. In a few days time you will receive an e-mail advising you that your membership for the trading room has become active and details of how to pay will also be included in this e-mail.

I sincerely hope you will join us on this venture as we are anticipating a very profitable and successful 2008.

Should you have any further queries please e-mail admin@tradeonsports.co.uk or findfreelay@gmail.com

I will post as usual till the start of LIVE CRICKET TRADING ROOM
in this blog.
All the best and happy new year!

Dip

Friday, December 28, 2007

South Africa v West Indies,1st Test-Day 3 {Inplay}

Update, Stumps (3rd day)

Another great day for us.West Indies classic collapso at last ;-).
Our Draw lay around 2.2x and South Africa back @ 7+ performed well :-).
Good night and all the best.

Will update tomorrow.
...............
Hello and welcome back.
South Africa bowled out for 195 runs.West Indies lead by 213 runs.
West Indies decided to bat again and not enforcing follow on.
Odds are
SA 5.6
Draw 2.9
WI 2.06
Plan is:
1.Lay WI 1.7x or below as free lay whenever comes today.
2.Back WI 3+ specially after quick wickets.
3.Back SA 7+ as good trading opportunity if comes early after good start.
4.Draw:
Odds are most confusing so far.But as i said before bookies knows more than us so it is better to leave it or back Draw 4+
Draw lay in high odds is risky imo.
Consider lay around 2.2x if comes today.
All the best.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

South Africa v West Indies,1st Test-Day 2 {Inplay}

Hello everyone and welcome to our inplay post.
First apologies for lack of updates but very busy days for me.
Excellent test so far from trading point of view also for our prematch free lay of SA in 1.4 :-).
.................
Current score is West Indies 379/7 in 121 overs.
Odds are SA 4.6,Draw 1.6 and WI 5.9
Frankly Don't know why Draw is so short. Is it because of bad weather forecast or flat pitch?
Or combination of both?
Weather sites are not indicating any big threat of rain.
But one thing is sure bookies know more than us and if they are predicting this test match result Draw from here it is better to wait and watch before South Africa comes to bat.
At that time consider lay Draw in 1.4x for 10 overs in start or wait for some time and if SA start well then consider lay Draw around 1.3 as free lay.
Good trading opportunity definately will be in backing West Indies 10+ if South Africa bat well in start.
I will try my best for update.
All the best.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Australia v India,1st Test:Update,Stumps (Day One)

Great day for us specially on free lays front:-).Plans worked on day 1 of this test match but frankly i was more interested in free lay as always.

Australia bat first and score at stumps on day 1 is 337/9 in 90 overs.
If you want to know what was the plan for day 1,i am posting it here again(originally posted on December 24, 2007):
"Plan(s):

1.Australia

>Lay 1.4x or below if comes as free lay preferably on day one.

>Back 2.2+ for long position.

2.Draw:

>Lay 2.4 or below.

>Back 4+ for long position.

3.India:

Hmmmm.....

>Lay 4.5 or below.

>Back 20+ if Australia bat first and comes in first 10-15 overs for a quick trading opportunity."
.................
Anyway I try to trade Test matches on daily basis and tomorrow is another day.I will post my plans for tomorrow later.
Good luck.

Monday, December 24, 2007

Safest Cricket Trading:Always Try To back 1.8+ And Try To Find Free Lay In 1.5x Or Below

Hello and welcome back,
Some readers of this blog often complaints that although advised tips are sound and safe most of the time but some advised odds range never comes in match to either lay or back.
I am 100% agreed with them but this is because i don't want anyone to lose money because of me.
For example in recent Test match at Galle (England v Sri Lanka,3rd Test) i was very confident that Draw is going to be traded at 1.2x very soon if Sri Lanka bat first (Draw odds was 1.6x in start from memory) also at the same time i was more confident on England price that at 5.5x England odds are good free lay.
But i don't advised to back Draw 1.6x or Lay England 5.5x in start.
Why?
Reason is simple that Sri Lanka can collapse in start and because of this Draw will reach 2.5+ and England around 3.
And if we compare to odds at which we traded first to these odds we can easily imagine our book position.
I believe in safe trading and rarely backs 1.5x or below odds as first trade or lay 5+ odds in all formats of cricket even if Australia is playing at home or any mighty team playing against minnows.
Yes many times i only watch or listen matches without trading but frankly (fingers crossed) because of this strategy i rarely found myself in difficult situation nowdays.
For example any regular visitor at betfair forum knows well that what was the panic set in when in 3rd Test match at Galle Draw and Lanka both traded at 1.3x to 4x on last 3 days.
Click on this link http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/ThreadsFrameset.jsp?forumID=62&forumName=Cricket&threadID=1321911&tName=***+Sri+Lanka+v+Eng+Day+5+Official+Thread+***&schatname=null&iMessageCount=1288
...............
I never consider myself a very smart trader but these are the lessons which i learnt from my mistakes/loss in past.
Summary is:
1.Always try to back 1.8+ mainly bowling team as good trading opportunity.
2.Always try to find free lay in 1.5x or below in batting team odds (Draw odds in Test matches is equal to batting team odds if batting team is not favorite at that time). There may be few exceptions some time according to match situation and home/away teams strength but if we follow these 2 points most of the time then chances of big loss will markedly decreased.Always remember that wait for good trading opportunity and patience is the key in any sports trading.

Good luck and once again merry xmas and prosperous new year to all.
Please do post your comments on this strategy.
Bye bye for now :-).

India v Australia,1st Test-Preview & Plan

Hello and very good morning to all,
Two test matches again at same day.
Don't want to involve in this prematch like SA/WI match.
Main points are:
1.Result:Draw ratio at venue is 85:15
2.Weather:Big concern.So far it looks fair but frankly it is difficult for anyone to predict.
3.Teams: No news so far.
4.Pitch: May turn after day two.Good for seamers in start.
..................
Plan(s):
1.Australia
>Lay 1.4x or below if comes as free lay preferably on day one.
>Back 2.2+ for long position.
2.Draw:
>Lay 2.4 or below.
>Back 4+ for long position.
3.India:
Hmmmm.....
>Lay 4.5 or below.
>Back 20+ if Australia bat first and comes in first 10-15 overs for a quick trading opportunity.
These plans are for 1st 2 days.
All the best and MERRY CHRISTMAS!.
.................

Please share your tips/plans and weather forecast for this match.I am waiting for your comments.

P.S:
Added two new link in betting blogs section Hamish's blog and betstories.com
Both are great blogs.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

South Africa v West Indies,1st Test:Prematch Free Lay

Hello,
Weather trading ended at last in England v Sri Lanka,3rd Test match today.
Busy with work commitments and christmas & new year plans i decided to stay away from it after 2nd day.
...................
Anyway i think in 1st test between SA/WI current odds are SA 1.42 to back as favourites! is not fair.

Never seen these odds before for a test match except Australia playing at home,so i am laying SA.Even if West Indies bat first and bowled out below 200 SA odds will not shorten below 1.3x and if SA bat first i may consider more lay in 1.5x
Good luck and wishing you all merry christmas.
P.S:
Waiting for your views/plan/comments on this match.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Australia v New Zealand,3rd ODI-Preview & Plan

Hello,
Match will start at 23:00 GMT and my chances of involvement is very less.
If i involve then i will try for inplay post,atleast in 2nd innings.


Preview is small that it is a must win game for both teams.Gilchrist is not playing and M.Clark will open for Australia that means two giants are in team,Hayden and Symonds instead of three ;-).
New Zealand lost there last two matches at this venue.
One with Australia by 105 runs.Batting team first won 14 out of 24 with 1 NR.
Anyway now come to plan.I want Australia to bat first from trading point of view at these odds (1.23)
Why?
Suppose Australia bat first assume Australia odds at innings break at score:
310
290
270
If you think it is not going to less than 1.18 in higher case then either stick to your prematch lay of Australia at 1.22 or plan to lay them in 1.1x whenever comes (prefer early in 1st 15 overs).
If NZ bat first you may choose to bail out prematch lay and then try to lay Australia in 1.16 or below (upto 2 wickets in start after some recovery) and then wait to back 1.2x or 1.3x (try to avoid lay Australia in 1.4+).
Back plan in both cases should start from 1.3x and then with according to situation.Like if you see couple of early wickets when Australia bat first then back some at 1.3x and then wait for 1.4x or 1.5x

...............
2nd innings:
It is difficult to say prematch about it because it depends on score but if you find Australia chasing 250+ then try to find free lay in 1.1x or 1.0x in start specially after 1 or 2 wickets.
If New Zealand chasing 280+ and start well then back Australia 1.5+ in 1st 15 overs and then wait.
My best worked strategy so far with Australia is:
Lay 1k in 1.20
Back 1200@1.30
Book position>160 green Australia and 200 red any other result.Means we backed Australia 200@1.8
Stop loss 2.2
>If odds shorten:
Stop loss 1.15 or 1.16 or according to situation like if Australia batting first then you may let it run some long.
Lastly best plan in this match is to wait for short odds of Australia like 1.08 or below because Australia is too strong and there is no confusion about market mood but still i think short odds lay (Australia) eg. 1.0x pays most of the time if comes early.
Australia lost many matches from 1.0x position in past,infact they are traded at 1.1x in every match which they lost recently from memory.
Good luck to all.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Sri Lanka v England,3rd Test-Day 1 {Inplay}

1st Update,Day 2
Sri Lanka 256/4 in 88 overs.
Odds Draw 1.19,Lanka 7 and England 34
New ball also not helping England which is the best and probably the last chance to come back in the game.
We've seen not much movement in the odds since start of play.
So when odds will move,specially Draw odds?
Answer is simple i think when England come to bat or heavy rain again.In first case upward move is expected and downward in later.
Wait is the only option now.
Good luck.

.................
Update, Day 2
06:50 GMT
Hello and welcome back.I've decided to stick with one post for whole Test match to maintain continuity in updates and comments.

Current score is Lanka 191/4 in 71 overs.
Odds are Draw 1.19,Lanka 7.4 and England 22
So far:
Sri Lanka attitude is negative no doubt.England lacks penetration (Panesar big disappointed).Weather forecast is bad.
Combination of all these is Draw as most likely outcome.
But as a rule i never back 1.2-1.5 when so much time left in the match.
So my plan is to find free lay in Draw around 1.15 today (when new ball taken or England is expected to bat soon) with weather watch.Lay Draw or back Lanka is almost equal at that time.
Good luck.
Waiting for your comments.
................
Hello and welcome to our 3rd test inplay post.


Its 06:15 GMT now.
Match scheduled to begin at 06:30 GMT.
Early news is that England won the toss and elected to bowl first means Lanka batting first.
Odds are
Draw 1.65
Lanka 3.85
England 6.8
Weather is the biggest factor in this match.

Going with Lanka and backed them at 4.2 just before the toss. because my logic was that whoever bat first Lanka price stay for sometime at current price.Reason is if Lanka bat first and lost quick wickets then market think that it is a bad pitch to bat on and generally home team price not drifts in these conditions from this range.
2nd reason is if England bat first Lanka price definately shorten even without wickets in start and after wickets it may shorten upto 3.0
So my first small trade is backing Lanka at 4.2

..............
Other plan for today is:
1.Consider Draw lay in 1.2x as free lay or back 3+ as good trading opportunity if comes with situation at that time.
2.Small Lay England in 4.5x if comes.
Though i don't want to touch England odds much.

3.Lanka back 6+ if comes with situation at that time.

Good luck.
...............
P.S:
Gilchrist is not playing in 3rd ODI (Australia v New Zealand) which is a huge factor in start if Australia bat first.So layed Australia in 1.22 as prematch free lay.
Wish me good luck :-).

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Australia v New Zealand,2nd ODI {Inplay}

Hello and welcome back.NZ won the toss and elected to bat first.Rain disturbances expected.
Odds are Aus 1.25 as favourites:
Predicted target odds are:
NZ bat first:
310 1.8x
290 1.7x
270 1.5x
250 1.2x
230 1.1x
210 1.0x
These are Australia odds.Clearly indicates that back Aus 1.5+ but safe plan is back 1.6+ but i think we may not find Aus odds in this range in 1st innings.Other plan is to lay Aus in 1.14 or below if comes early.
Weather forecast is not good so there may be some adjustments according to D/L method.
All the best.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Australia v New Zealand,2nd ODI And South Africa v West Indies,Only Twenty20 Preview

Hello and welcome to our preview of tomorrow's games,

1.Aus/NZ:It is really very good from trading point of view that Australia won both matches easily.Plus point is that NZ also batted well in 1st ODI.
So if Aus bat first and there is flying start lay them in 1.1x in start because upto 310 score odds in innings break is not going to be less then 1.1x
Only danger is 350+ score but i think we may get atleast one chance to bail out in middle overs.
If NZ bat first back Aussies 1.6+ (may consider 1.5+ also) because even at 270 score odds at innings break will be not more than 1.6x Australia.
2nd innings wait for low odds if Australia is chasing in start.Back Aussies if NZ chasing 270+ in 1.7x or more in start.
................
SA/WI T20 plan:
1.Lay any team in 1.3x in first 10 overs (1st innings).
I will try for inplay post in both matches.
All the best.
Please send your plans.Thanks in advance :-).

Friday, December 14, 2007

Australia v New Zealand,1st ODI {Inplay}

1st Update:
NZ 254/7 in 50 overs.
Odds Aus 1.22 as favourites.
Plan is:
1.Back Aus 1.8+ if comes in 1st 10 overs upto 3 wickets.
2.Lay Aus if comes in 1st 5 overs around 1.14 or below as free lay.
3.Lay Aus in 1.1x after 2 wickets in 1st 15 overs.
4.Safest plan:
Wait for Aus odds in 1.0x zone specially after 3 wickets with reqd. runs and runrate at that time.Like 120+ runs at 5+ runrate required.
Lay Aussies after 2 or 3 wickets in low odds is much safer than without wicket and it is really good that market always favours Australia.
Good luck.

...............
Hello and welcome back.Sorry for late post but having some problem in connection.Anyway i hope it is sorted now.
New Zealand won the toss and elected to bat first.
Score is NZ 101/1 in 19 overs.Good start and market predicting score around 280.
Odds are Australia 1.46 as favourites.
Looks like good trading opportunities in 2nd innings when Australia chase.
1st innings small plan is small back at 1.6x before 35 overs then wait and back more in 1.9+ in remaining overs (Australia), because even NZ score 300 runs then odds in innings break is not going to be less than 1.9x NZ.As usual main trading will be in 2nd innings.
All the best.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

England v Sri Lanka,2nd Test-Day 5 {Inplay}

Result:Match Drawn
My Draw green reduced 30% in last 2 days in this match but increased more than 40% in India match on 5th day in last so no complaints ;-).
Will post detail P/L of this month early.
Don't forget to join me tomorrow for Australia v New Zealand,1st ODI (03:15 GMT) 'inplay post'.
Till then good bye.
P:S:
Lay Australia (current odds are 1.26) it is prematch free lay.
All the best.
.................
3rd Update:
England 211/3 in 63 overs (48 overs remaining).
Odds Draw 1.05
Draw was 1.01 to lay before Bell wicket.
Waiting for another 1.01>1.05 or 1.02>1.08 shot before Tea because this time Draw may drift 10-12 ticks on 4th wicket.
I think market move on wickets in next 20 overs is something like this:
4th Wicket 10 ticks
5th Wicket 15 ticks
6th Wicket 25 ticks
Although it depends on odds before wicket,England lead,remaining overs and weather forecast etc.What i want to highlight is that after 3 wickets odds moves more than on first 2/3 wickets in these situations.
Anyway again best advise is don't back Draw in short odds.
Good luck.



................
2nd Update,Lunch:
England 152/1 trail by 45 runs and min. 65 overs remaining (depends on weather and bad light)
Odds Draw 1.03
Oops! my Draw green will reduce if odds will not drift in 1.1x zone.Frankly not waiting for miracle but i think it is a matter of only 1 wicket from trading point of view.Yesterday we seen it in India match also.Lets hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.
All the best.
..............
1st Update:
England 107/1 and Odds Draw 1.15
Draw touched 1.07 before Vaughan wicket.
Weather:Latest news is that it is not so bad today and 75 overs are possible atleast.
Plan is to stick with 1.1x lay before lunch.Though i don't trust on these things but from law of averages Bell is due for a low score.
Good luck.
................
Hello and Very good morning to all.
This is going to be cracker.First the best thing to do is to do nothing after tea because market may go volatile at that time or lay short odds 1.1x range of any selection at that time.2nd don't back draw in low odds anytime today,these two may save our big money.
Plan for today is:
1.Wait for 2 wickets atleast then lay draw in 1.2x when comes.
2.No detail forecast on weather till now but i think Draw in 1.1x is going to be free lay till lunch.
I'll update after 1 Hr.
All the best.
Please send weather/pitch report as comments.Thanks in advance.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Test Matches And Australia v New Zealand Twenty20 Plan

Hello and welcome back once again.
In Test matches Draw is favourite.Around 1.4x in England match and 1.1x in India match.

England v Lanka,3rd day:
Draw at 1.4x is a free lay but main thing is how much it will drift on wickets and runs in next 2 hours (ROI) and how much it may shorten in same period if no wickets?
Answer is not easy because it depends on weather forecast also which no one knows precisely.So i want to avoid any new trading today in this match till tea and only level my book when Draw reach in 1.3x zone anytime.
..................

India v Pakistan,4th Day:
Pakistan lost 6th wicket but follow-on is saved.
In this match plan is to trade on 5th day (Pakistan 2nd innings if comes).Although Draw in 1.0x is going to be free lay today.
.................

Australia v New Zealand,Twenty20 match:
Main focus is on this match today.Perhaps because of this match i don't want to involve more in Test matches.
It is a day nighter and start from 9:05 GMT.
Advance plan for 1st innings is:
(A)If Australia bat first:
1.Lay Australia in 1.2x if comes in 1st 10 overs.
2.Lay New Zealand 1.7x if comes in 1st 10 overs.
(B)If New Zealand bat first:
1.Lay Australia in 1.1x if comes in 1st 10 overs.
2.Back Australia 1.9+ if comes in 1st 10 overs.
3.Lay New Zealand 1.7x anytime if comes.
I will try for 'Inplay Post' in innings break.
Good luck.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Test Matches Update And Time - The Great Leveler

Hello,
Another good day.Highlight of the day was Draw lay in low odds and then back in high odds as per plan in both matches.All green book in both test matches although more on Draw.Try to level it tomorrow.


Time - The Great Leveler:
Yesterday benefited by bad umpiring in Lanka v England Test but today because of it missed very good profit in India v Pakistan Test,so conclusion is time is a great leveler.
All the best for tomorrow.

Test Matches Inplay Post,Dec. 10th

Hello and good morning,
Sri Lanka v England,day 2:
Score is 293/7 in 100 overs.
Odds are Lanka 2.24,England 7.8 and Draw 2.14
1.Consider lay Lanka around 2.1x if comes today as free lay.
2.Back Draw 3+ or lay 1.6x if comes anytime.
3.When Lanka comes to bat small back England if comes 12+ in start as quick trading opportunity.
..............
India v Pakistan,3rd day:
Score is Pakistan 149/2 in 47 overs.
Odds are India 2.7,Pakistan 70 and Draw 1.49
1.Lay Draw 1.40 and then in 1.25 before tea if comes.
2.Back Draw 2.5 if comes anytime today.

Weather is a big factor in both matches but still best advise is don't back Draw in low odds.
Good luck.

Sunday, December 9, 2007

Test Matches Update And Weather Trading

Hello and welcome back.
Good day overall and if i stick by my original position,it may ended as one of the best days.
Anyway plan worked most of the times today and frankly more due to bad umpiring.
It is really sad that at this level of cricket,level of umpiring is of club level.We have technology,still we don't use it specially in low catches or close LBW.Let's hope for some revolution in future.

Weather Trading:
In both Test matches Draw is favourite due to bad weather forecast.So it is more like of weather trading than cricket trading in these matches otherwise Draw is the least likely outcome in both matches.
Plan for tomorrow is same for 2 Tests and that is to lay Draw in low odds and back at high odds.
For India v Pakistan look for Draw around 1.5x (lay small at 1.55 and lay again at 1.35 if comes then wait) and in England v Sri Lanka match either back Draw 3+ or lay Draw 1.6x if comes.
Waiting for your plan/comments.I will try for inplay post tomorrow.
Good luck.

Test Matches Inplay Post,Sunday 9th December

Hello and very warm welcome to all.
Boxing match finished and Mayweather won it in style.
Test matches started and let's see latest score and odds:
England v Sri Lanka:
England won the toss and elected to bat first.Weather forecast is not good for whole match.
Latest score at lunch is England 97/0 in 29 overs.Odds are England 4.6,Sri Lanka 5.3 and Draw 1.68 as favourites.As per plan layed draw in evens and want to let it run (planning to lay more in 1.65) because i think Draw price will not shorten below 1.65 unless heavy rain starts (although stop loss 1.60 if comes without wicket).

Those not traded so far can consider small back Lanka 5.3 as a good trading opportunity.
Good luck.
................
India v Pakistan,Day 2
It's lunch time there also.Score is India 461/6 and Odds are India 2.38,Pakistan 34 as outsider and Draw 1.77 as favourites.
Plan is to wait for Pakistan batting and then consider lay Draw or India 1.5x (whichever comes first).
All the best.
I will try for inplay updates today.

Saturday, December 8, 2007

India v Pakistan,3rd Test-Day 2 And England v Sri Lanka,2nd Test-Day 1 Plan

Hello,
Apologies for lack of updates this week.It is because i was sick last month and after recovery joined duty now.So back to pavilion once again :-).
Anyway here's my plan for Test matches:

(A)India v Pakistan 2nd day plan:
1.Free lay:Wait for India or Draw odds around 1.5x
2.Good trading opportunity:Back India 4+ if comes when Pakistan bat in 1st 20 overs.
Before do anything read weather forecast well for remaining days.
..........

(B)England v Sri Lanka,1st day plan:
1.Free Lay:Wait for Lanka odds around 1.6x if comes (if Lanka bat first it is 1.8x).
Lay Draw around evens if England bat first.
2.Good trading opportunity:
>Lanka bat first:
Back Lanka 3.5+ if comes.
Back England 12+ if comes early after good start (it may go against us as England price drift rapidly if Lanka continue to bat well).

>England bat first:Back Draw 6+ if comes for long run.
Back Lanka 2.5+ if comes anytime after 2 wickets.
Keep an eye on weather forecast.
Good luck to all.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

England v Sri Lanka:5th Day Plan

Hello there,
Tomorrow look for:
1.Lanka 2.2+ before lunch to back.
2.Lanka 1.1x before lunch to lay.
3.Draw 1.2x before tea to lay.
4.Draw 7+ after tea to back.
(please add 'if comes' in all)
All the best.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Test Matches:Plans For Tomorrow

England v Sri Lanka 4th Day Plan:
Sri Lanka 2.18!
Another free lay?
I think so,because Draw price will hold Lanka price tomorrow(bad weather prediction in evening) till lunch.Also Lanka only 74 run ahead and they wont declare before score 300 more runs.Lastly they may collapse anytime after one more wicket.
Is England really out of match?
Odds are suggesting (7.0) but i think 1 or 2 quick wickets will cut England price by half (3.5).
For safe trading wait for Lanka price around 1.9 if comes before lunch to lay as free lay.Back England 9+ if comes before lunch as a good trading opportunity.Also keep an eye on weather forecast for remaining days.
All the best.

..............
India v Pakistan,5th Day Plan:
Is Draw at 1.22 is free lay?
Well it depends on how India bat tomorrow in start. Also it depends on declare time.
If India score 100 quick runs in 18-20 overs and give Pakis something like 400 runs target in 70 overs it will be very interesting match.

For safe trading lay Draw if it hits 1.15 tomorrow early morning because if India score fast it may drift upto 1.30 also just after declaration Draw will drift 5-7 ticks.

If Pakistan bat well in start then we may see Draw price free fall,lay draw for small at that time in 1.08.Post lunch lay Draw in 1.0x as free lay specially after 3 wickets.

Good Trading Opportunity:
Back Draw 2.2+ if comes after Tea for quick trade.

Good luck.
I will try for Update on both Test matches tomorrow before lunch.

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Test Matches Update

Hello,
Mix day today.Good for Test matches and bad one for one-day.Anyway it is a part of sports trading specially when you are trading on every matches.
Plan for tomorrow test matches is:
(A)India v Pakistan:4th Day Plan
Pakistan require 59 more runs to save follow on with 4 wickets in hand.Odds are Draw 1.56 as favourites.
Million dollar question is will India take follow on option if they bowl out Pakistan below 317?
I think No!
Because India may want to avoid any chase over 180 on last day.Also they are already one up in this series.
So plan is to take Draw above evens if comes after quick wickets early morning.
..............
England v Sri Lanka:3rd Day Plan
Lanka current price 2.0 is a free lay i think.But it will be better to wait and watch Lanka price movement tomorrow morning for atleast 20 overs.
All the best.

South Africa v New Zealand,3rd ODI {Inplay}

2nd Update
SA 59/0 in 9 overs.
Odds SA 1.10
Gibbs on fire.NZ needs wicket badly.Our book position is also not good.Waiting for SA odds around 1.04 as free lay if comes soon.Good luck.
.............
1st Update
NZ 238/50 overs.
Odds SA 1.40
Average score.Wait for SA in 1.2x if comes in 1st 5 overs.Back SA 1.9+ upto 2 wickets.
All the best.


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Hello and very warm welcome to 3rd ODI inplay post.
Early news is New Zealand won the toss and bat first.
Predicted target odds is:
New Zealand bat first:
310 1.6x
290 1.8x
270 Evens
250 2.4x
230 3.2x
210 3.8x
190 4.8x
These are New Zealand odds.
So lay NZ 1.7x or below as free lay.Back SA evens or above in 1st 20 overs as good trading opportunity.
Good luck

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Late Update

Interesting stage in both Test matches.My plan for tomorrow is:
(A)India v Pakistan,day 3 plan:
1.Wait for India or Draw in 1.4x zone.Obviously Draw lay is more safe than India lay.
2.Consider back India after 3 wickets at 2.1+ when 150 or more runs Pakistan reqd. to avoid follow on as a good trading opportunity.
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(B)England v Sri Lanka,day 2 plan:
1.Try to find free lay in England or Lanka odds around 1.5x or low.
2.Back Lanka 3+ if comes before lunch as good trading opportunity.
From experience i can say backing bowling team in these situations at 2.2+ or above after 3 wickets is generally safe.
Why?
1.Bowling team odds drifts very slow in these situations,so we get enough time for stop loss.
2.Even if odds drifts more than predicted in given time only one wicket pull down bowling team odds to original range.It helps to set high stop loss point.
I think i applied too much science in this ;-).
Back to couch and all the best for tomorrow:-).Again copying Big Joe.

England v Sri Lanka,1st Test-Day one {Inplay}

1st Update:
Lanka 142/5 in 42 overs.
Odds Lanka 1.98,England 2.88 and Draw 6.4
Well so far after lunch Draw and Lanka shorten at the cost of England price.Sangkkara escaped a close call in panesar over.Rule says if batsmen is not offering shot than he can be given out LBW.Plan is wait for England around 3.2+ this time as a good trading opportunity.
Free lay:Frankly hard to predict what will be Lanka price at 200/5
Evens or 1.8x ?
Any suggestions?
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Hello and welcome back.I will join duty from monday till that plenty of time to trade on cricket;-).Lung infection was really bad :-( but apart from weakness general condition is better:-).Trying to make smileys like Big Joe'.

Sri Lanka won the toss and chose to bat first and score is 86/5 in 25 overs at lunch.Odds are Lanka 2.20,England 2.24 and Draw 8.6
Where is the value?
Wait for England 2.9+ if comes before 40 overs because any wicket at that time will cut England odds by 0.5 or more.So my plan is back England at 3.0 and 3.4 (average 3.2) and let it run for sometime because England price may fridge around 3.4 before tea.Sangkkara and Jayawardene Both looking in great touch and Draw around 8.0 is also good for long run if Lanka bat well after lunch because of weather prediction.It will be great pleasure to watch how Lanka bat after lunch specially when spin bowlers operate from both end.
Good luck.

India v Pakistan,2nd Test-Day 2

Hello and good morning everyone.2 Test matches in sub-continent today.1st look at the India/Pak 2nd Test.Latest at 2nd day score is India 465/4 in 115 overs.Odds are India 1.78,Pakistan 50 and Draw 2.32.
India shorten well below 2.0 today.Infact India price shorten before start of play on day 2.Interesting discussion with Luis yesterday on this when South Africa price shorten at innings break in 2nd ODI.
Layed India on day 1 in start and around evens and below (Average 2.14) and backed at average 2.06.So my book is small red if India win this match.
Plan for remainining match is to wait for India or Draw price around 1.4x to trade.
I will update as soon as odds reach in this zone of any selection.
All the best.