Wednesday, September 5, 2007

No.1 Win In 6th Odi For Free Lays

Today P/L +£422.4
Hi,
I ranked this win at No.1 for free lays because there was so much struggle.Not in position to write more.Will update later.
Bye bye
England v India,6th Odi.Post Match Review Of Tradings
One of the best matches to trade,view but feeling heavily exhausted after match till now.There was really very good free lays in second inning (india chase) specially after 2 wickets and good trading opportunities in first inning.India won but many flip flops in match from start to end.We will analyse our tradings in each innings one by one.
1st Inning:
England won the toss and elected to bat.Wicket in first over and England was on backfoot then some recovery but after spinners come to bowl from 15th over life was hard for England batsmen.Our plan was to lay England just before spinners come at around 1.7 but at that time odds was not in this region so i avoided it.Then india restricted England to 137/5 in 30.2 overs and that time England score around 260 was in doubt and as i posted inplay update at that time that this is a tricky situation and view is to avoid any trade.India odds was in 1.4x zone at that time.Shah and Luke Wright (debut) was on crease and who ever imagine that carnage from them and Mascarenhas in last.It was first ODI match for wright and he played like a senior infact he turned the momentum first in my opinion.
In the end England posted huge score 316/6 in 50 overs.
What i want to highlight here is the good trading opportunities which we missed in the first inning was:
1.Small lay of England before spinners come to bowl.
2.Lay of india around 1.65 when Wright and Shah started hitting.Because at that time it was sure that England is going to make 260-270 at least and at that score odds of India in inning breaks is not going to below 1.85 so it was infact a good free lay.
2nd Inning:
Real test of free lays concept in second inning.317 to chase is not easy in any match.And our plan in Innings break update was same like previous high score chases which worked in past.
But the best opening pair in the world ever in ODI had different plan in mind and we were in trouble soon after backing England at 2.2x this was the most difficult situation so far for us in Natwest series and plan was to bail out first than think of any profit.As i posted at that time that this is wait and watch situation for me and i would like to see India in 1.4x zone if comes and we will consider any further trade at that time.Well indian openers went on make runs with ease and India odds shorten to 1.2x zone.This was the right time to lay them because required runrate was above 6 and in 5th inplay update i mention it.Than Tendulkar and Ganguly out in 4 overs and score was 156/2 in 26 overs.India odds drifted upto 1.69 and this match was looking to go either way.And then there was some golden and platinum free lays till last with wickets and runrate consideration.As i said before only one match i remember in recently seen in which over 310+ successfuly chased without flip flop was England v Srilanka in last year Natwest series if i'm not wrong.History was in favour of free lays.Summary is that there was many occasions when India at 1.3x odds in second inning specially after 2 or 3 wickets was best to lay because chances was high that India odds will stay at these odds for long or go upward in remaining match.
P.S:

Long post for me want to take some rest (I hate typing) and then new post on future matches.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

well done dip!!! unfortunately i messed up as i missed the low odds on india and then backed england!!! ah well, next time. keep up the great inplays, they are always interesting and most of all profitable!!!

wayne

dip said...

Hi Wayne,
Thanks for visit.Wait for Twenty20 World Cup in which we may find good free lays in every match.
Best wishes