Sunday, September 16, 2007

Predicting Target Odds

Yesterday P/L +£81.6
Traded only on one match yesterday and that too with small stakes because i want minimum risk this time after friday loss.If you remember it was the same ground where first match of the tournament between South Africa and West Indies played in which West Indies batted first and made 205 and odds after 1st innings was West Indies just favourites at 1.9 even after good score.Newzealand won the toss and elected to bat.I predicted what will be the odds at the end of 1st innings on Newzealand score in 150 to 210 range with help of last match target odds and keeping in mind Lanka batting strength.It worked and as i posted in 'Inplay' post that i'm considering small backing of Lanka at 2.0+ if comes while predicting NZ score after 20 overs.Infact Newzealand at 1.8x in 1st innings was good free lay and honestly we missed to take full advantage on that because even at score around 210 in 20 overs odds are going to be in 1.7x zone of NZ in view of Lanka batting strength.
Frankly it is not a new formula but Twenty20 is different version of cricket where markets are more unpredictable and volatile compare to other versions.
Lanka electric start in chase left no trading opportunity although i layed them in 1.18 to green on any result.
Today three matches not sure so far in which i may involve but my advise is to try this old formula and predict target odds on these matches while keeping in mind both team strengths and ground records.
Good luck

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