Twenty20 World Cup Preview

Yesterday P/L £48.3
Trading on Middlesex v Derbyshire in 2nd inning ended with loss.Lay Middlesex in 1.07 and then waited.Plan was any wicket may drift odds in 1.1x zone but good opening partnership so ended with loss although backed most of at 1.04 to cut loss.

Twenty20 World Cup first match today and our plan for today and other matches in brief:
Free lays:if you remember previous posts in which i mentioned many times that chances of finding free lays (Prematch or Inplay) are more in either longest version of the game (Test cricket) or in shortest version (Twenty20) and it is proved many times. We traded on Twenty20 matches after start of this blog on 4th,August 2007 on Twenty20 finals day.
Check prematch post here and 1st Semifinal and 2nd semifinal and The Final 4th August 2007, Twenty20 cup posts and in last Results post on these matches.
We will discuss plan for prematch,inplay 1st and 2nd inning one by one in Twenty20 matches:
1.Prematch:
Quote from previous post "Generally market is very volatile in these matches and early short odds of any team(prematch or inplay) is good for lay it should be basic strategy for these matches" and also "It is my personal opinion that teams are almost equal in this format of cricket" (leave real minnows).I want to stick to this theory on Twenty20 matches.
for example today's match between Southafrica and Westindies and odds are SA favourites at 1.57 is good for small lay prematch because if WI bat first and couple of good over in start it will drift SA odds within minutes but if SA bat first there odds will not short more even after good start because there prematch odds are already in low zone and if early wickets than odds will drift.
As the matches goes on we may find teams which is on winning run may available in short odds prematch because of their last matches good performance.
2.First Innings Plan:Again my thinking is to lay any team below 1.3 in first innings and then wait even till last ball of the match.
3.Second Innings Plan:Flipflop in second innings is very common and lay any team in 1.2x zone anytime early then wait.But more focus on laying bat team even in 1.4x zone if chase is 170+
Again we try to understand it by today's match:
Assuming West indies bat first and made 165 in 20 overs.Than odds around break may be like SA 1.65
If SA in reply 40/0 in 5 overs and there odds will be in 1.3x zone.But if you calculate and analyse conditions deeply then you find 126 runs still required at 8.4/over.
In such condition SA odds will not move downward for some overs and chances of upward move is more because to score 8.4/over is not a easy task.
If bat team in 170+ chase available to lay around 1.3 when 3 wickets gone and 100+ runs required at over 7 runrate it is Golden Freelay as far i think.
Good Trading Opportunities Inplay:If chances of free lays are more than we will avoid any other opportunity in Twenty20 matches.
Summary:
Wait for short odds of any team prematch or inplay in all matches to lay with analysis of situation at that time.