Saturday, September 15, 2007

Toughest Day And Loss In The End.But Free Lays Won All The Way

Yesterday P/L -£309.1
No excuse,no blame on luck and no if and buts.It was a tough day.Only consolation is that trading in one out of two matches was really gone well beyond expectations but as the official result in that match is 'Tie' no P/L will be counted.I also highlighted significance of look on tie market in close ended matches in a recent post but it is easy to say than done practically in such a volatile market in the last.
We traded yesterday on two matches (England/Australia and India/Pak) both matches played in traditional way as a 50 over oneday and not like true Twenty20 matches.There was inplay as well as prematch homework posts on these matches.
England v Australia:
England batted first and as per plan lay of Australia in 1.5x in first inning not worked.Logic behind this trade was some good hitting expected as it is Twenty20 match in early overs and we may find soon Australian odds in 1.8x zone but no English batsmen allowed so by bowlers.Finally after cutting losses net loss was 309.1 on Australia in first inning.No scope in second inning seen.
India v Pakistan:
High voltage drama in 2nd inning and every plan at that time worked so well that i was more than 1.5K green on any result.If you remember inplay post updates our plan was to lay Pakistan in 1.1x in second inning after see few overs in start and than lay short odds of any team at death when match was looking close.Here i want to explain you why?Reason for lay of Pak in 1.1x zone:Target was 141 and it looks small in Twenty20 but batting condition was not looking very good therefor 1.1x odds are there to stay for long and it is basic of finding free lays.
Reason for lay of any team short odds at death:Remember this for always that when 3 or 4 wickets are in hand and required runs are not beyond reach match can go in favour of any team at death and backing any team in shorts odds may be disasterous at that time as it was seen in this match.There was huge market over reaction after Afridi got out and someone even offered 1000 on Pakistan at that time from my memory.Many flip flops in last but ahh........ It was Tie.What can we do.Forget result but remember lessons which we learn from these matches and look for future.No team won in this match in scheduled time but 'free lays' wins all the way even in the England v Australia when due to 1.1x Australia odds drifted to 1.3x at least two times in first inning which helped me to reduce loss on that match,it was trading plan which not worked in first innings in both matches.
Cheers
P.S:
Two more Twenty20 matches today.We will back soon.Till then good bye.Lookin forward for comments/suggestions.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Dip,

bad luck on effectively losing out on the tie. I had the same result myself and am now considering the possible benefits of backing the "tie" next time I am all green as a form of insurance. I know many on the forum do this but have never done it myself. What are your thoughts on this approach ?

dip said...

Hi Luis,
Thanks for your kind words and good suggestion.Yes in future we will keep in mind backing of tie specially in tight situations when flip flops in every over in last.It is also true that match market was so volatile in the last yesterday that it was really difficult to think of any other market at that time.But next time definately more attention required.
All the best