Interesting stage in both Test matches.My plan for tomorrow is:
(A)India v Pakistan,day 3 plan:
1.Wait for India or Draw in 1.4x zone.Obviously Draw lay is more safe than India lay.
2.Consider back India after 3 wickets at 2.1+ when 150 or more runs Pakistan reqd. to avoid follow on as a good trading opportunity.
.................
(B)England v Sri Lanka,day 2 plan:
1.Try to find free lay in England or Lanka odds around 1.5x or low.
2.Back Lanka 3+ if comes before lunch as good trading opportunity.
From experience i can say backing bowling team in these situations at 2.2+ or above after 3 wickets is generally safe.
Why?
1.Bowling team odds drifts very slow in these situations,so we get enough time for stop loss.
2.Even if odds drifts more than predicted in given time only one wicket pull down bowling team odds to original range.It helps to set high stop loss point.
I think i applied too much science in this ;-).
Back to couch and all the best for tomorrow:-).Again copying Big Joe.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
hi dip,
how do you work out what score pakistan need to get to, to avoid the follow on? also, when backing the bowling team at 2.2+, at what point do you recommend setting the stop loss at, 2.5, 2.6, 3.0?
thanks
vijay
Hi Vijay,
Pakistan need 417 to avoid follow on.Stop loss point after backing bowling team in 2.2+ depends on situation.As i described in this post some main factors are no. of wickets,remaining time in match,reqd. runs to win or avoid follow on are among them.
Also in some matches we plan to back 2.2 and then 3.2 in case of odds lengthen (Average 2.7) because of value (eg. India odds in 1st Test against Pakistan on day 3 lengthen from 1.9 to 3.5+ but after 1 wicket shorten to ?2.3 from memory)
Similar to this sometime we lay in 1.4 with advance plan to back at 1.7 if odds lengthen or lay more in 1.2 if odds shorten.
Post a Comment