Hello,
5 One-day cricket series will start from tomorrow in Lanka.Muralidharan not playing 1st three games.Flintoff is not available for whole series.
1st three games will be played at Dambulla in Colombo.
Pitch report:It generally favours fast bowlers but some help for spin bowlers towards end as per past records.
Weather is not looking good because chances of rain are 50%
Strategy for series:
1st ODI (9AM:GMT) odds are Lanka 1.46 as favourites.So just apply 'Predict target odds' if Lanka bat first and electric start from Jayasurya then we may see Lanka odds in 1.2x zone early as free lay.Basic plan is Lanka odds are very short indicative of market favouritism heavily towards them.So we may find some very good free lays and trading opportunities in the series.
Key Points:
1.First 3 oneday at same venue which help seam bowlers.
2.Murli is not playing in all three.
3.Both teams are just back from Twenty20 cricket.
4.Lanka odds are short and if they win 1st match.We may see more short odds in next matches.
5.Best advise:Never back short odds in start.And try to find good free lay if Lanka bat first and do well in start.
I will try for 'inplay' post tomorrow.
Please post you thoughts/plan for the series.It will help all.
Thanks for reading.
P.S:
Advise which i given many times before the start of series/match and repeating again:
Most important:Always try to find batting team in short odds to lay in any version of cricket.
1.Always avoid spread bets.They are lottery.Most of the times kills match trading.
2.Reduced stakes and always try to play(lay) in low odds:
More than 365 cricket matches per year.If you trade 200 and win £50 in 140 and loss £25 in 60 then at the end of year profit is 7000-1500=£5500 it is only possible by 'low stakes and playing with low odds'
I tried reduced stakes in Twenty20 and found it extremely helpful to make profit in most of the matches either small or moderate and reduce big losses if things are not going my way in any match.And if you lay low odds then chances of small loss and big benefit always seen.
3.Trade minimum in 1st innings unless there is very good free lay or trading opportunity.So avoid jumping before the first ball bowled.
4.Always look for high chase or low chase matches and save money for trading on these matches.Chances of free lays are 4 times more in 2nd innings in these situations.
5.Write down your lay/back or back/lay plan in advance:It is very important eg.you layed any team for 1k in 1.22 then what you will do if odds are 1.48 or 1.16 after sometime.Don't apply mind at that time it should be very clear when you layed and follow that like machine or robot.
Just follow these points and see your P/L after one month.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Saturday, September 29, 2007
India v Australia,1st ODI {Inplay}
1st Update
Australia 307/7 in 50 overs.
Odds Aus 1.43
Good for us always like high scoring games.Plan is to back Australia at 1.9+ if comes in first ten overs or lay 1.1x Aus in first 5 overs after 1 wicket only.
.............
Hello again,
Australia won the toss and elected to bat first.
Odds are Australia 1.64
Remember it is Day/Night match.So team batting second (India) may feel some difficulty if they chase 270+
My plan for 1st inning:
1.Predict target odds.If Australia score
320
300
280
260
240
220
Higher score odds coming to 1.3x so if you find Australia odds in this zone early lay them.And if bad start then consider small backing of Australia at 2.2+
As always we will do most of the trading in 2nd inning unless any good free lay or trading opportunity in 1st inning.Because i always reckon 1st inning a gamble.
Good luck
Australia 307/7 in 50 overs.
Odds Aus 1.43
Good for us always like high scoring games.Plan is to back Australia at 1.9+ if comes in first ten overs or lay 1.1x Aus in first 5 overs after 1 wicket only.
.............
Hello again,
Australia won the toss and elected to bat first.
Odds are Australia 1.64
Remember it is Day/Night match.So team batting second (India) may feel some difficulty if they chase 270+
My plan for 1st inning:
1.Predict target odds.If Australia score
320
300
280
260
240
220
Higher score odds coming to 1.3x so if you find Australia odds in this zone early lay them.And if bad start then consider small backing of Australia at 2.2+
As always we will do most of the trading in 2nd inning unless any good free lay or trading opportunity in 1st inning.Because i always reckon 1st inning a gamble.
Good luck
India v Australia ODI Cricket Series,Preview & Strategy
Hello and welcome back.International cricket almost daily from today on mainly in Asia upto end of next month.
We will take each and every series one by one.Today is 1st ODI between India and Australia in Banglore,India.7 ODI's in the series.India full of confidence after winning Twenty20 World Cup while Australia wants to prove it again that they are still the best team in the world.
This series is on Indian pitches and Australia having some injury problems will make it really interesting to watch.
So far my planning is:
Watch 1st ODI more and trade with little money.Because it will give you edge in next matches.Both teams are coming from Twenty20 tournament and we are not different.To make adjustment in different format takes time so avoid heavy trading in start.
Best of luck.
We will take each and every series one by one.Today is 1st ODI between India and Australia in Banglore,India.7 ODI's in the series.India full of confidence after winning Twenty20 World Cup while Australia wants to prove it again that they are still the best team in the world.
This series is on Indian pitches and Australia having some injury problems will make it really interesting to watch.
So far my planning is:
Watch 1st ODI more and trade with little money.Because it will give you edge in next matches.Both teams are coming from Twenty20 tournament and we are not different.To make adjustment in different format takes time so avoid heavy trading in start.
Best of luck.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Oops! We Did It Again
Twenty20 Final P/L +£510.1
Perfect finish in the last of this unpredictable version of cricket.Not clear till last ball who is going to be winner.
Congratulations to India.
Tournament Review
Good results for us in trading matches specially after some matches played.
'Predicting target odds' great redefined formula worked in most of the matches in first innings when batting team performed well in start.Policy to avoid backing of short odds of any team anytime in the match prevented any big loss in whole tournament.Lay of bat team in low odds while chasing worked as always.
Going for short break.
Bye bye
Perfect finish in the last of this unpredictable version of cricket.Not clear till last ball who is going to be winner.
Congratulations to India.
Tournament Review
Good results for us in trading matches specially after some matches played.
'Predicting target odds' great redefined formula worked in most of the matches in first innings when batting team performed well in start.Policy to avoid backing of short odds of any team anytime in the match prevented any big loss in whole tournament.Lay of bat team in low odds while chasing worked as always.
Going for short break.
Bye bye
Monday, September 24, 2007
India v Pakistan,Final Twenty20 World Cup {Inplay}
1st Update
India 157 in 20 overs.
Odds Pak 1.48
It is not a 1.48 shot.But i'm not laying Pakistan because it is Twenty20 and i would like to see them in 1.2x zone early.
If early wickets or dot balls then go with bowl team (India) in first ten overs otherwise wait for bat team in short odds with asking rate 8/over to lay.
................
Hello and welcome to our Twenty20 World Cup final inplay.Early news is that India won the toss and elected to bat first.Big news is that Virendra Sehvag is not playing.
Sites predicting India score around 170-180
Odds are Pakistan 1.89 as favourites.
1st inning plan is to lay India in 1.6x or lay Pak in 1.5x
Lets see who comes first.
Wish you all best of luck.
India 157 in 20 overs.
Odds Pak 1.48
It is not a 1.48 shot.But i'm not laying Pakistan because it is Twenty20 and i would like to see them in 1.2x zone early.
If early wickets or dot balls then go with bowl team (India) in first ten overs otherwise wait for bat team in short odds with asking rate 8/over to lay.
................
Hello and welcome to our Twenty20 World Cup final inplay.Early news is that India won the toss and elected to bat first.Big news is that Virendra Sehvag is not playing.
Sites predicting India score around 170-180
Odds are Pakistan 1.89 as favourites.
1st inning plan is to lay India in 1.6x or lay Pak in 1.5x
Lets see who comes first.
Wish you all best of luck.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Calling Big Joe
P/L Since Last Update +£1162.7
Semifinals P/L +£1134
Three matches traded:
India/South Africa +28.7
Newzealand/Pakistan +278.42
India/Australia +855.6
Twenty20 World Cup final coming up on monday.Obviously last match but if you look at the first match of the tournament (South Africa v West Indies) every strategy hidden in that match to how to trade on Twenty20 cricket.How?Just look at that match odds inplay:
1.West Indies Batted first and scored 205 in 20 overs.SA started around 1.6 as favourites and then some carnage from Gayle and odds in mid(1st inning) was around 1.4 West Indies.
2.Then some good overs for SA in last and WI restricted to 205 Odds at the innings break was 1.9 West Indies as favourites.
3.SA started to chase and some dot balls in early overs and WI odds shortened to 1.4x
4.Then SA accelerated and WI odds started to drift.
5.Flip flops in middle mainly due to wickets or dot balls.
6.SA won finally by 8 wickets.
7.Both team was traded in 1.4x zone in match.
Summary:
1.When bat team doing well or got a electric start in first innings there odds reaches to a level from which chances of downward movement is less compared to upward movement.(Constantly going for 12/over not is not a easy job specially when spinners are due)
2.When team loosing first two wickets specially when chasing they are not finished.(11 batsmen are there for 20 overs)
i'm not saying that this happened in every match or we earned a lot from this theory.As you know it failed in India/England match when we layed india in 1st innings.It also failed in India/Africa match when if someone put money on SA when they are chasing low score and lost some early wickets.But yes it worked in many matches and our redefined formula 'Predicting Target Odds' for 1st innings born.
Second innings you always know that if it is a reasonable target we always likes to lay bat team in short odds but in Twenty20 laying bowling team in short odds in any innings also worked on many occasions because market always over reacts on wickets but their are 11 batsmen for only 20 overs as we seen in 2nd semifinal when Australia lost Gilchrist.In brief what we learn again and again is 'Never Back Short Odds Of Any Team In Twenty20 At Any Stage' Infact it is true in all version of cricket.
This post is going lengthy i think.
Quick reminder that our inplay plan worked in both semifinals yesterday as lay of Newzealand in first semifinal(1st inning) and than in 2nd semifinal lay of any team in second innings in 1.4x zone.
Coming back to title of post 'Calling Big Joe' those who are regular at Betfair cricket forum knows him.He is blind supporter of asian teams mainly India.Having great sense of humour but sometimes many annoyed by his one sided threads.
But really whenever i read his posts i laughs so loudly that my Mrs wondered what is going on.He is a lovely person but i think he should try to minimize his repetitive views in favour of cricket forum as many thinks it looks like 'Big Joe Blog' more nowdays. Thats all for now.Tomorrow is final and please post your plans for match.
Bye bye
P.S:
Don't know how many knows about 'Betfair Cricket Forum' but it is a great place to find vital information/links on cricket matches specially at start of play like weather,team composition,mood of the market,ground records,pitch behaviour etc.My advice is that although it is difficult to follow it inplay but at the strat and in between innings breaks try to visit there and you may find some valueable informations.
Semifinals P/L +£1134
Three matches traded:
India/South Africa +28.7
Newzealand/Pakistan +278.42
India/Australia +855.6
Twenty20 World Cup final coming up on monday.Obviously last match but if you look at the first match of the tournament (South Africa v West Indies) every strategy hidden in that match to how to trade on Twenty20 cricket.How?Just look at that match odds inplay:
1.West Indies Batted first and scored 205 in 20 overs.SA started around 1.6 as favourites and then some carnage from Gayle and odds in mid(1st inning) was around 1.4 West Indies.
2.Then some good overs for SA in last and WI restricted to 205 Odds at the innings break was 1.9 West Indies as favourites.
3.SA started to chase and some dot balls in early overs and WI odds shortened to 1.4x
4.Then SA accelerated and WI odds started to drift.
5.Flip flops in middle mainly due to wickets or dot balls.
6.SA won finally by 8 wickets.
7.Both team was traded in 1.4x zone in match.
Summary:
1.When bat team doing well or got a electric start in first innings there odds reaches to a level from which chances of downward movement is less compared to upward movement.(Constantly going for 12/over not is not a easy job specially when spinners are due)
2.When team loosing first two wickets specially when chasing they are not finished.(11 batsmen are there for 20 overs)
i'm not saying that this happened in every match or we earned a lot from this theory.As you know it failed in India/England match when we layed india in 1st innings.It also failed in India/Africa match when if someone put money on SA when they are chasing low score and lost some early wickets.But yes it worked in many matches and our redefined formula 'Predicting Target Odds' for 1st innings born.
Second innings you always know that if it is a reasonable target we always likes to lay bat team in short odds but in Twenty20 laying bowling team in short odds in any innings also worked on many occasions because market always over reacts on wickets but their are 11 batsmen for only 20 overs as we seen in 2nd semifinal when Australia lost Gilchrist.In brief what we learn again and again is 'Never Back Short Odds Of Any Team In Twenty20 At Any Stage' Infact it is true in all version of cricket.
This post is going lengthy i think.
Quick reminder that our inplay plan worked in both semifinals yesterday as lay of Newzealand in first semifinal(1st inning) and than in 2nd semifinal lay of any team in second innings in 1.4x zone.
Coming back to title of post 'Calling Big Joe' those who are regular at Betfair cricket forum knows him.He is blind supporter of asian teams mainly India.Having great sense of humour but sometimes many annoyed by his one sided threads.
But really whenever i read his posts i laughs so loudly that my Mrs wondered what is going on.He is a lovely person but i think he should try to minimize his repetitive views in favour of cricket forum as many thinks it looks like 'Big Joe Blog' more nowdays. Thats all for now.Tomorrow is final and please post your plans for match.
Bye bye
P.S:
Don't know how many knows about 'Betfair Cricket Forum' but it is a great place to find vital information/links on cricket matches specially at start of play like weather,team composition,mood of the market,ground records,pitch behaviour etc.My advice is that although it is difficult to follow it inplay but at the strat and in between innings breaks try to visit there and you may find some valueable informations.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
India v Australia,2nd Semifinal {Inplay}
2nd Update
India 188 for 5 in 20 overs.
Odds India 1.93
Great display from India and i'm remembering Big Joe.Tell you some other time who he is.
Coming back on match it will be a real traders dream match if Australia do well in start.And my plan is to lay any team when comes in 1.4x zone with situation at that time.
................
1st Update
India doing well and score is 79 for 2 in 11 overs.Consider backing Aus at 1.8 or above from now on.
.................
Hello and welcome back.India batting first and score is 41 for 2 in 8 overs.
I want to see Australia odds in 1.1x zone with wickets and remaining overs at that time in both innings.
All the best
India 188 for 5 in 20 overs.
Odds India 1.93
Great display from India and i'm remembering Big Joe.Tell you some other time who he is.
Coming back on match it will be a real traders dream match if Australia do well in start.And my plan is to lay any team when comes in 1.4x zone with situation at that time.
................
1st Update
India doing well and score is 79 for 2 in 11 overs.Consider backing Aus at 1.8 or above from now on.
.................
Hello and welcome back.India batting first and score is 41 for 2 in 8 overs.
I want to see Australia odds in 1.1x zone with wickets and remaining overs at that time in both innings.
All the best
Pakistan v Newzealand 1st Semifinal,Twenty20 World Cup {Inplay}
Newzealand 143/8 in first innings.
Odds Pak 1.38
Good first inning for us.Now the plan is to find Pak in 1.1x odds and situation at that time.
..................
Hello and welcome to 1st Semifinal Inplay.New Zealand won the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are NZ 1.98
Well small planning for 1st inning is to lay NZ in 1.6x if comes after flying start or back 2.8+ with situation at that time.Main trading will be in 2nd innings as always unless any good opportunity in 1st inning.
Good luck
Odds Pak 1.38
Good first inning for us.Now the plan is to find Pak in 1.1x odds and situation at that time.
..................
Hello and welcome to 1st Semifinal Inplay.New Zealand won the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are NZ 1.98
Well small planning for 1st inning is to lay NZ in 1.6x if comes after flying start or back 2.8+ with situation at that time.Main trading will be in 2nd innings as always unless any good opportunity in 1st inning.
Good luck
Thursday, September 20, 2007
India v South Africa {Inplay}
1st Update
India 153 in 20 overs.
Odds SA 1.26
Pitch is not looking easy to play.Plan is to lay SA around 1.15 or 1.10 if electric start.
..................
Hello and welcome again.India won the toss and elected to bat first.And the plan is back SA 1.9+ whenever comes or lay SA 1.2x if comes early with situation at that time.
Wishing you all good luck.
India 153 in 20 overs.
Odds SA 1.26
Pitch is not looking easy to play.Plan is to lay SA around 1.15 or 1.10 if electric start.
..................
Hello and welcome again.India won the toss and elected to bat first.And the plan is back SA 1.9+ whenever comes or lay SA 1.2x if comes early with situation at that time.
Wishing you all good luck.
Bangladesh v Pakistan,Prematch Homework
Inplay Update:
Bangladesh 140 all out in first inning.
There is always something fishy when these two team plays each other specially in dead rubber and it is again proved today strange bowling then strange batting.So better to avoid this match and look for next big one India v South Africa.But if you want to trade then enter when 2 or 3 Pakistan wickets gone early and odds are in 1.1x zone.
..................
Hello and welcome back.It is todays 2nd match at Newlands, Cape Town.Australia won easily in their match against Lanka today.Not involved in that match but going to trade in remaining two matches today.
Yesterday traded in two games and won £128.1 in South Africa/Newzealand match and lost £32.6 in India/England match and ended with £95.4 profit.Layed india in 1.1x in 2nd innings than back in 1.2x covered some loss in that match.It was a coincidence that yesterday i posted "1.14=1.04" post before that match.As i mentioned before that i reduced my stakes in remaining matches because these matches are not easy to trade.
Coming on to Pak/Bangla match my plan is:
(A) If Pakistan bat first try to find a good free lay in 1.1x in early overs.
(B)if Bangladesh bat first then wait for 2nd innings.
All the best.
Bangladesh 140 all out in first inning.
There is always something fishy when these two team plays each other specially in dead rubber and it is again proved today strange bowling then strange batting.So better to avoid this match and look for next big one India v South Africa.But if you want to trade then enter when 2 or 3 Pakistan wickets gone early and odds are in 1.1x zone.
..................
Hello and welcome back.It is todays 2nd match at Newlands, Cape Town.Australia won easily in their match against Lanka today.Not involved in that match but going to trade in remaining two matches today.
Yesterday traded in two games and won £128.1 in South Africa/Newzealand match and lost £32.6 in India/England match and ended with £95.4 profit.Layed india in 1.1x in 2nd innings than back in 1.2x covered some loss in that match.It was a coincidence that yesterday i posted "1.14=1.04" post before that match.As i mentioned before that i reduced my stakes in remaining matches because these matches are not easy to trade.
Coming on to Pak/Bangla match my plan is:
(A) If Pakistan bat first try to find a good free lay in 1.1x in early overs.
(B)if Bangladesh bat first then wait for 2nd innings.
All the best.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
India v England {Inplay}
1st Update
India 218 in 20 overs.
Odds India 1.13
What a carnage from Yuvraj in last.Anyway these odds are to lay because it is Twenty20 and keep in mind you may get 1.10 anytime to back in worst case.
Good luck
..............
Hello again last match was good for our basics so no need to change strategy.Just predict odds of any team bat first.You will find 1st innings plan in that.I'm waiting from your side this time.Post here both teams odds after 1st inning when they bat first.
Wish you all best of luck.
India 218 in 20 overs.
Odds India 1.13
What a carnage from Yuvraj in last.Anyway these odds are to lay because it is Twenty20 and keep in mind you may get 1.10 anytime to back in worst case.
Good luck
..............
Hello again last match was good for our basics so no need to change strategy.Just predict odds of any team bat first.You will find 1st innings plan in that.I'm waiting from your side this time.Post here both teams odds after 1st inning when they bat first.
Wish you all best of luck.
South Africa v New Zealand {Inplay}
Hello and welcome back.Newzealand bat first and made 153/8
Odds in innings break was SA 1.3
Now the situation is SA 31/2 in 6 overs.And odds are SA 1.57
1st inning was good by formula 'Predicting Target Odds' so we don't need to trade in 2nd inning.I'm not trading in this inning but if you want then as always try to find bat team in short odds to lay in tight situation.
Good luck
Odds in innings break was SA 1.3
Now the situation is SA 31/2 in 6 overs.And odds are SA 1.57
1st inning was good by formula 'Predicting Target Odds' so we don't need to trade in 2nd inning.I'm not trading in this inning but if you want then as always try to find bat team in short odds to lay in tight situation.
Good luck
South Africa v New Zealand,Prematch Homework
Hello and welcome to our preparation of todays first match in Duraban at 1.00 pm BST.
Odds are SA 1.69 as favourites.My prediction of odds of both teams after 1st innings as we don't know who will bat first is:
(A) If SA bat first:
210 1.4x
190 1.6x
170 1.8x
150 2.6x
these are SA odds.
(B) If NZ bat first:
210 1.8x
190 Evens
170 2.4x
150 2.8x
these are NZ odds.
Predict your odds and post.
All the best.
Odds are SA 1.69 as favourites.My prediction of odds of both teams after 1st innings as we don't know who will bat first is:
(A) If SA bat first:
210 1.4x
190 1.6x
170 1.8x
150 2.6x
these are SA odds.
(B) If NZ bat first:
210 1.8x
190 Evens
170 2.4x
150 2.8x
these are NZ odds.
Predict your odds and post.
All the best.
1.14=1.04
1.14=1.04
Is it possible?
Yes it is possible in sports trading.
Hello and good morning to all.
I'm back after 2 trade free days because i was too busy elsewhere.Hope things are going well as our 'Predicting Target Odds' formula worked exceptionally well again in two of the three matches played yesterday.Not traded yesterday but was in touch of my friends and from them (also from internet) i get this information that what was the lowest odds when Australia and Lanka batting first in their matches against their opponents and at which stage of the innings.It was somewhere around 1.2 of Australia and 1.1 of Lanka while batting first in the match.Not going in detail but these was the lowest odds possible after 20 overs of batting team and was 'Platinum free lay' because if we layed these odds chances of downward move was very little (maximum 20%)
Therefor the title of this post is 1.14=1.04 means if we layed 1.14 odds in these situations every chance is there that we may get odds to back at 1.10 anytime in the remaining match and actually we are laying in 1.04 practically instead of 1.14 theoretically.Hence we are at low risk.And chances of upward move is much higher with these odds as it happened yesterday in both matches when odds drifted to more than 1.6 after the end of 20 overs in 1st inning.
It is also true with laying bat team in 1.1x (low odds) as we seen in third match between England and Newzealand when England odds in chase reached to 1.1x zone at one stage.These are the basics to find free lays and infact a golden rule in any sports trading.
Please note that i have taken 1.14 odds as a example but it can be in other ranges like 1.34=1.28 etc.
Today is two matches first is South africa/Newzealand followed by England/India.
I will try for 'inplay post' today.
In last keep in mind:
1.Predict target odds:Batting team odds in first innings around 150-210 range.
2.Lay bat team in low odds when they are chasing with analysis of situation at that time mainly runrate/wickets.
3.Lay any team low odds if comes early in the match with analysis because early wickets or boundaries are of little value in Twenty20 cricket.
4.Never back short odds of any team unless layed first
5.Try to find 1.14=1.04 situations.
Please post your view on 1.14=1.04 and give ideas that where and when we can find these situations in sports trading mainly in cricket.
P.S:
As always waiting for comments because they are essential to determine future of this blog.My try is to find minimum risk formula/plans/opportunities in sports trading specially in cricket and this is not possible without your support.Share you plan/strategies,correct me when i'm wrong and by doing that we can help each other because collectively we may find better plans always.
This blog is not for any commercial purpose or to tell my P/L to others.I admit that after starting this blog i'm doing trading in disciplined way than ever before but i need your support to go ahead.
Bye bye for now.Good luck to all.
Is it possible?
Yes it is possible in sports trading.
Hello and good morning to all.
I'm back after 2 trade free days because i was too busy elsewhere.Hope things are going well as our 'Predicting Target Odds' formula worked exceptionally well again in two of the three matches played yesterday.Not traded yesterday but was in touch of my friends and from them (also from internet) i get this information that what was the lowest odds when Australia and Lanka batting first in their matches against their opponents and at which stage of the innings.It was somewhere around 1.2 of Australia and 1.1 of Lanka while batting first in the match.Not going in detail but these was the lowest odds possible after 20 overs of batting team and was 'Platinum free lay' because if we layed these odds chances of downward move was very little (maximum 20%)
Therefor the title of this post is 1.14=1.04 means if we layed 1.14 odds in these situations every chance is there that we may get odds to back at 1.10 anytime in the remaining match and actually we are laying in 1.04 practically instead of 1.14 theoretically.Hence we are at low risk.And chances of upward move is much higher with these odds as it happened yesterday in both matches when odds drifted to more than 1.6 after the end of 20 overs in 1st inning.
It is also true with laying bat team in 1.1x (low odds) as we seen in third match between England and Newzealand when England odds in chase reached to 1.1x zone at one stage.These are the basics to find free lays and infact a golden rule in any sports trading.
Please note that i have taken 1.14 odds as a example but it can be in other ranges like 1.34=1.28 etc.
Today is two matches first is South africa/Newzealand followed by England/India.
I will try for 'inplay post' today.
In last keep in mind:
1.Predict target odds:Batting team odds in first innings around 150-210 range.
2.Lay bat team in low odds when they are chasing with analysis of situation at that time mainly runrate/wickets.
3.Lay any team low odds if comes early in the match with analysis because early wickets or boundaries are of little value in Twenty20 cricket.
4.Never back short odds of any team unless layed first
5.Try to find 1.14=1.04 situations.
Please post your view on 1.14=1.04 and give ideas that where and when we can find these situations in sports trading mainly in cricket.
P.S:
As always waiting for comments because they are essential to determine future of this blog.My try is to find minimum risk formula/plans/opportunities in sports trading specially in cricket and this is not possible without your support.Share you plan/strategies,correct me when i'm wrong and by doing that we can help each other because collectively we may find better plans always.
This blog is not for any commercial purpose or to tell my P/L to others.I admit that after starting this blog i'm doing trading in disciplined way than ever before but i need your support to go ahead.
Bye bye for now.Good luck to all.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Confidence Back On Track
Yesterday P/L +£565.6
Yesterday was most satisfactory day in Twenty20 World Cup for me so far and 'Predicting Target Odds' formula for 1st innings in matches which i traded (India v Nz and England V Sa) worked well.Ended up with profit of 426.6 in Newzealand/India match and 138.9 in South africa/England match and no trading in Australia v Bangladesh match.I was really conscious to trade in 1st innings as planning was not going well in tournament.
Not going in detail because everything is in 'Inplay Posts' or prematch plan.
Newzealand Odds in range 1.5x was good free lay in 1st innings of their match against India and 2.4+ odds of South africa was good to back in their match against England when it was looking that score is going to be near about 150.
2nd innings was as usual as before in both matches although traded little in 2nd innings after good first innings.
P.S:
My advise is that it will be better to minimize stakes in these matches to gain more because markets are very volatile.I reduced my stakes more than 50% that helped me to stay cool and 'wait and watch time' is also increased.Everyone knows that there are flip flop in most of the Twenty20 matches but frankly how many layed India heavily including myself in 1.2x in there chase against NZ or England in innings break at 1.71 against South africa.The answer is very few but imagine if you are laying them for 100 in 1.2x or 1.7x according to plan then liability is less which gives you much more wait and watch time and peace of mind.
Twenty20 is dangerous put your small money on it unless you find good free lay or very good trading opportunity and never back short odds of any team in the match.Today is only one match.Srilanka v Pakistan and i will probably going to miss that but those who wants to trade in this match keep in mind 'Predicting Target Odds' in 1st innings and by that i can say if Pakistan bat first back Lanka 1.9+ whenever it comes or if Lanka bat first assume their odds in 150-230 range and post here as comments.
My opinion is try to find free lay early in 1.2 to 1.3 range if Lanka bats first and there is flying start because only Jayasurya wicket will drift Lanka odds by 20 ticks.
Waiting for your comments.
Thats all for now.
Good bye and best of luck.
Yesterday was most satisfactory day in Twenty20 World Cup for me so far and 'Predicting Target Odds' formula for 1st innings in matches which i traded (India v Nz and England V Sa) worked well.Ended up with profit of 426.6 in Newzealand/India match and 138.9 in South africa/England match and no trading in Australia v Bangladesh match.I was really conscious to trade in 1st innings as planning was not going well in tournament.
Not going in detail because everything is in 'Inplay Posts' or prematch plan.
Newzealand Odds in range 1.5x was good free lay in 1st innings of their match against India and 2.4+ odds of South africa was good to back in their match against England when it was looking that score is going to be near about 150.
2nd innings was as usual as before in both matches although traded little in 2nd innings after good first innings.
P.S:
My advise is that it will be better to minimize stakes in these matches to gain more because markets are very volatile.I reduced my stakes more than 50% that helped me to stay cool and 'wait and watch time' is also increased.Everyone knows that there are flip flop in most of the Twenty20 matches but frankly how many layed India heavily including myself in 1.2x in there chase against NZ or England in innings break at 1.71 against South africa.The answer is very few but imagine if you are laying them for 100 in 1.2x or 1.7x according to plan then liability is less which gives you much more wait and watch time and peace of mind.
Twenty20 is dangerous put your small money on it unless you find good free lay or very good trading opportunity and never back short odds of any team in the match.Today is only one match.Srilanka v Pakistan and i will probably going to miss that but those who wants to trade in this match keep in mind 'Predicting Target Odds' in 1st innings and by that i can say if Pakistan bat first back Lanka 1.9+ whenever it comes or if Lanka bat first assume their odds in 150-230 range and post here as comments.
My opinion is try to find free lay early in 1.2 to 1.3 range if Lanka bats first and there is flying start because only Jayasurya wicket will drift Lanka odds by 20 ticks.
Waiting for your comments.
Thats all for now.
Good bye and best of luck.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
South Africa v England {Inplay}
3rd Update
England 99/5 and equation is 56 runs required in 32 balls.Anyone can win and looking for short odds of any team at death with tie market.
.................
2nd Update
England 59/3 in 10 ovr
Odds SA 1.33
My eye is on SA odds 1.8+ if comes and situation at that time specially wickets.
...................
1st Update
SA made 154/8 in 20 overs.
Odds England 1.7
Not a big score in Twenty20 but remember South Africa is a very dangerous team specially when they are defending small targets at home.It will be a good match if early wickets and england around 50/3 at that time we will consider to fully enter in market.And yes if electric start then try to find free lay in 1.2x in England odds and if slow start but wickets intact consider backing England at 2.0+
................
Big match.England won the toss and elected to field first and odds are 1.83 SA favourites.First inning plan is same that assume odds in last at SA total.And my prediction is:
210 1.4x
190 1.6x
170 Evens
150 2.4x
These are SA odds.So in my view lay of SA in 1.4x is 'free lay' anytime if comes in first inning.
Good luck
England 99/5 and equation is 56 runs required in 32 balls.Anyone can win and looking for short odds of any team at death with tie market.
.................
2nd Update
England 59/3 in 10 ovr
Odds SA 1.33
My eye is on SA odds 1.8+ if comes and situation at that time specially wickets.
...................
1st Update
SA made 154/8 in 20 overs.
Odds England 1.7
Not a big score in Twenty20 but remember South Africa is a very dangerous team specially when they are defending small targets at home.It will be a good match if early wickets and england around 50/3 at that time we will consider to fully enter in market.And yes if electric start then try to find free lay in 1.2x in England odds and if slow start but wickets intact consider backing England at 2.0+
................
Big match.England won the toss and elected to field first and odds are 1.83 SA favourites.First inning plan is same that assume odds in last at SA total.And my prediction is:
210 1.4x
190 1.6x
170 Evens
150 2.4x
These are SA odds.So in my view lay of SA in 1.4x is 'free lay' anytime if comes in first inning.
Good luck
India v Newzealand {Inplay}
Result:
Newzealand won by 10 runs.It is looking very short margin but match was not close at the death as the India/Pak match because no established or pure batsman was there in the last overs.India odds after electic start shortened amazingly upto 1.2x and laying bat team in these situations pays most of time.
Anyway NZ at 1.56 in the first inning at 65/1 in 9th over was better free lay then 1.8x in previous match against Lanka.Our 'Predicting Target Odds' formula is working and we will follow this in South africa v England match again in first inning.For the Australia v Bangladesh match we will follow points from 'Strong Team v Minnows Strategy' post.In brief enter market in these situations:
(A)When Australia bat first and looking in trouble(early 2/3 wickets)
(B)When Australia chasing good score(160+)
(C)When Bangladesh chasing average score(140)
In last it is very difficult to post updates 'Inplay' in Twenty20 matches because market at times very volatile and i have only two hands also if i advised like today in innings break is to go with NZ (bowling team) at 2.1+ in second innings but with 'Analysis of wickets and runrate at that time' indicative of if there is electric start like today in 2nd inning and all wickets were intact than wait for more short odds of bat team to lay or high odds of bowl team to back.
.....................
1st Update
India 109/3 12 overs
Odds NZ 1.71
Will it be last over decider?Book you seat in 'Tie Market' and plan is to trade short odds of any team like in India/Pak match.
.................
Hello and sorry for late 'Inplay' post.1st inning plan going well which i posted in early morning post.Newzealand batted first and scored 190 in 20 overs.Odds are NZ 1.54 and the plan is either back NZ in 2.1+ or lay in 1.3 whichever comes first with analysis of wickets and runrate at that time.
Newzealand won by 10 runs.It is looking very short margin but match was not close at the death as the India/Pak match because no established or pure batsman was there in the last overs.India odds after electic start shortened amazingly upto 1.2x and laying bat team in these situations pays most of time.
Anyway NZ at 1.56 in the first inning at 65/1 in 9th over was better free lay then 1.8x in previous match against Lanka.Our 'Predicting Target Odds' formula is working and we will follow this in South africa v England match again in first inning.For the Australia v Bangladesh match we will follow points from 'Strong Team v Minnows Strategy' post.In brief enter market in these situations:
(A)When Australia bat first and looking in trouble(early 2/3 wickets)
(B)When Australia chasing good score(160+)
(C)When Bangladesh chasing average score(140)
In last it is very difficult to post updates 'Inplay' in Twenty20 matches because market at times very volatile and i have only two hands also if i advised like today in innings break is to go with NZ (bowling team) at 2.1+ in second innings but with 'Analysis of wickets and runrate at that time' indicative of if there is electric start like today in 2nd inning and all wickets were intact than wait for more short odds of bat team to lay or high odds of bowl team to back.
.....................
1st Update
India 109/3 12 overs
Odds NZ 1.71
Will it be last over decider?Book you seat in 'Tie Market' and plan is to trade short odds of any team like in India/Pak match.
.................
Hello and sorry for late 'Inplay' post.1st inning plan going well which i posted in early morning post.Newzealand batted first and scored 190 in 20 overs.Odds are NZ 1.54 and the plan is either back NZ in 2.1+ or lay in 1.3 whichever comes first with analysis of wickets and runrate at that time.
Predicting Target Odds
Yesterday P/L +£81.6
Traded only on one match yesterday and that too with small stakes because i want minimum risk this time after friday loss.If you remember it was the same ground where first match of the tournament between South Africa and West Indies played in which West Indies batted first and made 205 and odds after 1st innings was West Indies just favourites at 1.9 even after good score.Newzealand won the toss and elected to bat.I predicted what will be the odds at the end of 1st innings on Newzealand score in 150 to 210 range with help of last match target odds and keeping in mind Lanka batting strength.It worked and as i posted in 'Inplay' post that i'm considering small backing of Lanka at 2.0+ if comes while predicting NZ score after 20 overs.Infact Newzealand at 1.8x in 1st innings was good free lay and honestly we missed to take full advantage on that because even at score around 210 in 20 overs odds are going to be in 1.7x zone of NZ in view of Lanka batting strength.
Frankly it is not a new formula but Twenty20 is different version of cricket where markets are more unpredictable and volatile compare to other versions.
Lanka electric start in chase left no trading opportunity although i layed them in 1.18 to green on any result.
Today three matches not sure so far in which i may involve but my advise is to try this old formula and predict target odds on these matches while keeping in mind both team strengths and ground records.
Good luck
Traded only on one match yesterday and that too with small stakes because i want minimum risk this time after friday loss.If you remember it was the same ground where first match of the tournament between South Africa and West Indies played in which West Indies batted first and made 205 and odds after 1st innings was West Indies just favourites at 1.9 even after good score.Newzealand won the toss and elected to bat.I predicted what will be the odds at the end of 1st innings on Newzealand score in 150 to 210 range with help of last match target odds and keeping in mind Lanka batting strength.It worked and as i posted in 'Inplay' post that i'm considering small backing of Lanka at 2.0+ if comes while predicting NZ score after 20 overs.Infact Newzealand at 1.8x in 1st innings was good free lay and honestly we missed to take full advantage on that because even at score around 210 in 20 overs odds are going to be in 1.7x zone of NZ in view of Lanka batting strength.
Frankly it is not a new formula but Twenty20 is different version of cricket where markets are more unpredictable and volatile compare to other versions.
Lanka electric start in chase left no trading opportunity although i layed them in 1.18 to green on any result.
Today three matches not sure so far in which i may involve but my advise is to try this old formula and predict target odds on these matches while keeping in mind both team strengths and ground records.
Good luck
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Srilanka v Newzealand,Twenty20 {Inplay}
2nd Update (Break)
NZ 164/20 overs
Odds Lanka 1.51
Well not a 1.5 shot.NZ bowlers are good but Lanka batsmen are brutal.Watch for Lanka odds in 1.3x zone if comes in 5 overs and situation at that time or 1.9+ odds after quick wickets.But main focus should be on find free lay in 1.2x or 1.3x zone early if comes.
...................
1st Update
NZ 59/2 in 8 overs
Odds Lanka 1.68
I am considering small back of Lanka at 2.0+ if comes soon as upto 170 odds will be same.Any suggestions?
................
Hello and welcome back.Newzealand won the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are Lanka favourites at 1.9 Total NZ runs at bookies is in 175-180 range.6 overs score at 52-56
Anyway what you think odds will be when:
NZ score 190-210,170-190 and 150-170
Analyze on it and consider lay of NZ in 1.6x if comes in first ten overs.
Best wishes to all
NZ 164/20 overs
Odds Lanka 1.51
Well not a 1.5 shot.NZ bowlers are good but Lanka batsmen are brutal.Watch for Lanka odds in 1.3x zone if comes in 5 overs and situation at that time or 1.9+ odds after quick wickets.But main focus should be on find free lay in 1.2x or 1.3x zone early if comes.
...................
1st Update
NZ 59/2 in 8 overs
Odds Lanka 1.68
I am considering small back of Lanka at 2.0+ if comes soon as upto 170 odds will be same.Any suggestions?
................
Hello and welcome back.Newzealand won the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are Lanka favourites at 1.9 Total NZ runs at bookies is in 175-180 range.6 overs score at 52-56
Anyway what you think odds will be when:
NZ score 190-210,170-190 and 150-170
Analyze on it and consider lay of NZ in 1.6x if comes in first ten overs.
Best wishes to all
Todays Twenty20 World Cup Matches,15th September
Hello and welcome,
Two matches today in world cup.First Srilanka/Newzealand followed by South Africa/Bangladesh.
Yesterday our trading plan not worked well in 1st innings of both matches.Review of these innings i found that normally i always likes to wait and then try to find free lays in batting team low odds in any innings in Oneday or Test cricket but in Twenty20 cricket i was trying to find free lays or good trading opportunities in bowling team low odds also,because 11 batsmen are there to play 20 overs.But still on the basis of two matches i don't think we need to change our basic plan to lay any team short odds early.Although slight change in odds range required specially after bad start.
And that is:
1.Wait and lay when bowl team odds are 1.25 or below after bad strat in first innings instead of 1.4x or 1.5x.
2.Minimum trading in 1st innings unless good lay of bat team in low odds.
Yesterday bowling team odds in 1.1x zone drifted to 1.3x zone many times in first innings in both matches.Now coming on todays matches strategy will be same in Lanka/Newzealand match as equal teams and for SA/BANGLA match strategy will be from 'Strong team v Minnows' plan which i posted some days before.
Good luck to all.
Two matches today in world cup.First Srilanka/Newzealand followed by South Africa/Bangladesh.
Yesterday our trading plan not worked well in 1st innings of both matches.Review of these innings i found that normally i always likes to wait and then try to find free lays in batting team low odds in any innings in Oneday or Test cricket but in Twenty20 cricket i was trying to find free lays or good trading opportunities in bowling team low odds also,because 11 batsmen are there to play 20 overs.But still on the basis of two matches i don't think we need to change our basic plan to lay any team short odds early.Although slight change in odds range required specially after bad start.
And that is:
1.Wait and lay when bowl team odds are 1.25 or below after bad strat in first innings instead of 1.4x or 1.5x.
2.Minimum trading in 1st innings unless good lay of bat team in low odds.
Yesterday bowling team odds in 1.1x zone drifted to 1.3x zone many times in first innings in both matches.Now coming on todays matches strategy will be same in Lanka/Newzealand match as equal teams and for SA/BANGLA match strategy will be from 'Strong team v Minnows' plan which i posted some days before.
Good luck to all.
Toughest Day And Loss In The End.But Free Lays Won All The Way
Yesterday P/L -£309.1
No excuse,no blame on luck and no if and buts.It was a tough day.Only consolation is that trading in one out of two matches was really gone well beyond expectations but as the official result in that match is 'Tie' no P/L will be counted.I also highlighted significance of look on tie market in close ended matches in a recent post but it is easy to say than done practically in such a volatile market in the last.
We traded yesterday on two matches (England/Australia and India/Pak) both matches played in traditional way as a 50 over oneday and not like true Twenty20 matches.There was inplay as well as prematch homework posts on these matches.
England v Australia:
England batted first and as per plan lay of Australia in 1.5x in first inning not worked.Logic behind this trade was some good hitting expected as it is Twenty20 match in early overs and we may find soon Australian odds in 1.8x zone but no English batsmen allowed so by bowlers.Finally after cutting losses net loss was 309.1 on Australia in first inning.No scope in second inning seen.
India v Pakistan:
High voltage drama in 2nd inning and every plan at that time worked so well that i was more than 1.5K green on any result.If you remember inplay post updates our plan was to lay Pakistan in 1.1x in second inning after see few overs in start and than lay short odds of any team at death when match was looking close.Here i want to explain you why?Reason for lay of Pak in 1.1x zone:Target was 141 and it looks small in Twenty20 but batting condition was not looking very good therefor 1.1x odds are there to stay for long and it is basic of finding free lays.
Reason for lay of any team short odds at death:Remember this for always that when 3 or 4 wickets are in hand and required runs are not beyond reach match can go in favour of any team at death and backing any team in shorts odds may be disasterous at that time as it was seen in this match.There was huge market over reaction after Afridi got out and someone even offered 1000 on Pakistan at that time from my memory.Many flip flops in last but ahh........ It was Tie.What can we do.Forget result but remember lessons which we learn from these matches and look for future.No team won in this match in scheduled time but 'free lays' wins all the way even in the England v Australia when due to 1.1x Australia odds drifted to 1.3x at least two times in first inning which helped me to reduce loss on that match,it was trading plan which not worked in first innings in both matches.
Cheers
P.S:
Two more Twenty20 matches today.We will back soon.Till then good bye.Lookin forward for comments/suggestions.
No excuse,no blame on luck and no if and buts.It was a tough day.Only consolation is that trading in one out of two matches was really gone well beyond expectations but as the official result in that match is 'Tie' no P/L will be counted.I also highlighted significance of look on tie market in close ended matches in a recent post but it is easy to say than done practically in such a volatile market in the last.
We traded yesterday on two matches (England/Australia and India/Pak) both matches played in traditional way as a 50 over oneday and not like true Twenty20 matches.There was inplay as well as prematch homework posts on these matches.
England v Australia:
England batted first and as per plan lay of Australia in 1.5x in first inning not worked.Logic behind this trade was some good hitting expected as it is Twenty20 match in early overs and we may find soon Australian odds in 1.8x zone but no English batsmen allowed so by bowlers.Finally after cutting losses net loss was 309.1 on Australia in first inning.No scope in second inning seen.
India v Pakistan:
High voltage drama in 2nd inning and every plan at that time worked so well that i was more than 1.5K green on any result.If you remember inplay post updates our plan was to lay Pakistan in 1.1x in second inning after see few overs in start and than lay short odds of any team at death when match was looking close.Here i want to explain you why?Reason for lay of Pak in 1.1x zone:Target was 141 and it looks small in Twenty20 but batting condition was not looking very good therefor 1.1x odds are there to stay for long and it is basic of finding free lays.
Reason for lay of any team short odds at death:Remember this for always that when 3 or 4 wickets are in hand and required runs are not beyond reach match can go in favour of any team at death and backing any team in shorts odds may be disasterous at that time as it was seen in this match.There was huge market over reaction after Afridi got out and someone even offered 1000 on Pakistan at that time from my memory.Many flip flops in last but ahh........ It was Tie.What can we do.Forget result but remember lessons which we learn from these matches and look for future.No team won in this match in scheduled time but 'free lays' wins all the way even in the England v Australia when due to 1.1x Australia odds drifted to 1.3x at least two times in first inning which helped me to reduce loss on that match,it was trading plan which not worked in first innings in both matches.
Cheers
P.S:
Two more Twenty20 matches today.We will back soon.Till then good bye.Lookin forward for comments/suggestions.
Friday, September 14, 2007
India v Pakistan, {Inplay} Twenty20
Special Update
Anyone know how the market will be settled?
..................
4th Update
Pakistan 58/4 10.4ovr
Odds India 1.71
This is always tricky situation.Only plan should be lay short odds of any team at death after clearing our positions.
...............
3rd Update
India 141/9 in 20 ovrs
Odds Pak 1.25
Wait and see Pakistan odds in 1.1x if comes and analyse conditions at that time.
...............
2nd Update
India 111/6 in 16 ovr
Odds Pak 1.31
Tough day for us so far.Small red on any result but looking forward for some free lays in 2nd inning in 1.1x
...............
1st Update
Pakistan won the toss and elected to field.India already one down and odds are Pak in 1.4x zone lay them.
................
Hello again,
Crucial match for India.Odds are Pakistan 1.91 as favourites.Plan is wait for toss then go with bowling team in first inning and small back them at 2.4+ odds in first innings or small lay of bat team in 1.6 in first innings.
Good luck to all.
Anyone know how the market will be settled?
..................
4th Update
Pakistan 58/4 10.4ovr
Odds India 1.71
This is always tricky situation.Only plan should be lay short odds of any team at death after clearing our positions.
...............
3rd Update
India 141/9 in 20 ovrs
Odds Pak 1.25
Wait and see Pakistan odds in 1.1x if comes and analyse conditions at that time.
...............
2nd Update
India 111/6 in 16 ovr
Odds Pak 1.31
Tough day for us so far.Small red on any result but looking forward for some free lays in 2nd inning in 1.1x
...............
1st Update
Pakistan won the toss and elected to field.India already one down and odds are Pak in 1.4x zone lay them.
................
Hello again,
Crucial match for India.Odds are Pakistan 1.91 as favourites.Plan is wait for toss then go with bowling team in first inning and small back them at 2.4+ odds in first innings or small lay of bat team in 1.6 in first innings.
Good luck to all.
England v Australia {Inplay} Twenty20
1st Update (innings break)
Frankly plan not worked in 1st inning most of the time and we are red on any result in first inning after cutting loss.Australia required 136 runs to win in 20 overs.Look for below 1.05 odds of Australia specially after 2 wickets and only enter in second inning when tight situation or close fight going on.
................
Hello and welcome to our second inplay of the Twenty20 World Cup.Frankly not feeling as comfortable as i feels in ODI and TEST matches trading.So far traded only on one match in this cup and from that match and another matches played so far my main focus is to lay early short odds of any team then wait.
1st innings plan already discussed in prematch post and i will update in innings break.
Good luck and waiting for suggestions inplay.
Frankly plan not worked in 1st inning most of the time and we are red on any result in first inning after cutting loss.Australia required 136 runs to win in 20 overs.Look for below 1.05 odds of Australia specially after 2 wickets and only enter in second inning when tight situation or close fight going on.
................
Hello and welcome to our second inplay of the Twenty20 World Cup.Frankly not feeling as comfortable as i feels in ODI and TEST matches trading.So far traded only on one match in this cup and from that match and another matches played so far my main focus is to lay early short odds of any team then wait.
1st innings plan already discussed in prematch post and i will update in innings break.
Good luck and waiting for suggestions inplay.
India v Pakistan Prematch Homework
Free time today and reading other blogs and tipping sites.Srilanka/Kenya match is going on and there is no scope since start in match market.
Srilanka made highest score record today.Not because of this performance but i will reckon anyone interested in 'Tournament winner market' go with Lanka.They are presently 6.8 on betfair.Now some discussion on match between India and Pakistan.India are without there famous trio.But as i said before these things matter little on this format of cricket.My plan on this match is:
1.As usual lay short odds of any team in 1st inning and early in second inning.Range is 1.3 to 1.5
2.Generally games between these two teams are close so expect many flip flops in match and practice your fingers on keyboard for quick trades.
Srilanka made highest score record today.Not because of this performance but i will reckon anyone interested in 'Tournament winner market' go with Lanka.They are presently 6.8 on betfair.Now some discussion on match between India and Pakistan.India are without there famous trio.But as i said before these things matter little on this format of cricket.My plan on this match is:
1.As usual lay short odds of any team in 1st inning and early in second inning.Range is 1.3 to 1.5
2.Generally games between these two teams are close so expect many flip flops in match and practice your fingers on keyboard for quick trades.
Australia v England Twenty20,Prematch Homework
Hello,
Three matches today in Twenty20 World Cup.Already many upsets in this version of cricket.I enjoyed two trading free days and feeling relaxed.
First we will take Australia/England match and try to make a safe plan for trading in this match.
So far no score is looking good to defend and i am predicting this match is going to be another high scoring match (400+ total runs in both innings)
Basic plan:
1.First Innings-
(A)If England bat first lay Aus in 1.5x
(B)If Australia bat first wait for sometime and then lay them in 1.4 because it may not go down upto the end of 1st inning.
2.Second Innings-
(A)If England chasing 200+ and assuming odds at that time around 1.5 of Australia.Lay Australia just start of innings or wait and then lay in 1.3x
(B)If Australia chasing 200+ and Australia odds at that time may be 2.2 than back Australia in 2.2+ odds in start.
P.S:
All these are just predictions.My advise is to wait for 2nd inning is more safe for trading and do most of the trading at that time.Lastly i will try my best for inplay post.
Good luck
Three matches today in Twenty20 World Cup.Already many upsets in this version of cricket.I enjoyed two trading free days and feeling relaxed.
First we will take Australia/England match and try to make a safe plan for trading in this match.
So far no score is looking good to defend and i am predicting this match is going to be another high scoring match (400+ total runs in both innings)
Basic plan:
1.First Innings-
(A)If England bat first lay Aus in 1.5x
(B)If Australia bat first wait for sometime and then lay them in 1.4 because it may not go down upto the end of 1st inning.
2.Second Innings-
(A)If England chasing 200+ and assuming odds at that time around 1.5 of Australia.Lay Australia just start of innings or wait and then lay in 1.3x
(B)If Australia chasing 200+ and Australia odds at that time may be 2.2 than back Australia in 2.2+ odds in start.
P.S:
All these are just predictions.My advise is to wait for 2nd inning is more safe for trading and do most of the trading at that time.Lastly i will try my best for inplay post.
Good luck
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Twenty20 World Cup,Strong Team v Minnows Matches Strategy
Hello again,
P/L Since Last Post £122.7
Last match i traded was first match of the Twenty20 World Cup between South africa and West indies with profit of £122.7 Prematch lay of SA in 1.58 and flip flops in 2nd inning specially in first 10 overs was main highlight of trading.Although lay of SA around 1.2x in last overs of 2nd inning not worked.
After that match 3 more matches played yesterday and 3 more scheduled today but i'm not trading on these matches due to lack of time but from tomorrow may involve if time will permit.
Shocking result yesterday as 1.01 odds Australia lost to Zimbabwe by 5 wickets.Pakistan was also Looking in trouble when batting first against scotland.Only New zealand won easily.
From these matches and other matches played between strong team versus semi-minnows or minnows in past i think chances of profit is more or strategy should be like this:(including 50 over oneday's also)
WHEN TO ENTER OR SELECT WHICH MATCHES
1.When Strong Team Bat First In 1.0X Odds:When strong team bat first for example like in two matches played yesterday between Pakistan/Scotland and Australia/Zimbabwe.Chances of odds move upward of strong team was more than if weak team batted first.Because even if weak team start well there odds not changed much but if strong team had bad start then there is more chances of upward move in there odds.
If you see the history of upsets or near upsets.,you will find that in most of instances strong team batted first for Examples(Recent) From my memory (update later with more data).
1.India lost to Bangladesh in last world cup.
2.Pakistan lost to Ireland in same world cup.
3.Australia lost to Bangladesh (Don't know date)
4.Australia lost to Zimbabwe yesterday
These are real upsets but there was many other instances in which strong team found themselves in trouble when batting first and nearly escaped in last.Pakistan was in trouble last day in start.
I'm not saying that lay strong team blindly when they bat first but we may find free lays and good trading opportunities when strong team after bad start have some recovery and then try to find good lay.We may found them again in1.0x zone at 50/3 because of market favouritism and take this as Entry Point even in slight higher odds.
2.When Strong Team Chasing Good Score In 1.1x Odds:Not going in detail just a example of last world cup match between South africa and Bangladesh in which Bangladesh batted first and scored 240+ and SA started chase at 1.1x and even after 2 or 3 wickets was in 1.1x zone because of the same reason market favouritism.
3.When Weak Team Chasing Low or Average Score and strong team odds are 1.1x:Generally in these conditions chances of trading opportunities are more than upsets.Any good over changes odds dramatically in most of the times.
4.Summary:General psychology is that if we missed 1.0x odds and then seeing some real movements what we do is either we back strong team in 1.2x odds or don't lay them.My personal experience is wait for some time than you may find 1.1x odds again to lay.Backing short odds without lay first is always risky.
I'm not trading today but follow these points and you may find
Selection,Entry Point and Exit Point In All Matches In Future Between Strong Team and Minnows (Twenty20 and Oneday's)
Good luck for today.
P/L Since Last Post £122.7
Last match i traded was first match of the Twenty20 World Cup between South africa and West indies with profit of £122.7 Prematch lay of SA in 1.58 and flip flops in 2nd inning specially in first 10 overs was main highlight of trading.Although lay of SA around 1.2x in last overs of 2nd inning not worked.
After that match 3 more matches played yesterday and 3 more scheduled today but i'm not trading on these matches due to lack of time but from tomorrow may involve if time will permit.
Shocking result yesterday as 1.01 odds Australia lost to Zimbabwe by 5 wickets.Pakistan was also Looking in trouble when batting first against scotland.Only New zealand won easily.
From these matches and other matches played between strong team versus semi-minnows or minnows in past i think chances of profit is more or strategy should be like this:(including 50 over oneday's also)
WHEN TO ENTER OR SELECT WHICH MATCHES
1.When Strong Team Bat First In 1.0X Odds:When strong team bat first for example like in two matches played yesterday between Pakistan/Scotland and Australia/Zimbabwe.Chances of odds move upward of strong team was more than if weak team batted first.Because even if weak team start well there odds not changed much but if strong team had bad start then there is more chances of upward move in there odds.
If you see the history of upsets or near upsets.,you will find that in most of instances strong team batted first for Examples(Recent) From my memory (update later with more data).
1.India lost to Bangladesh in last world cup.
2.Pakistan lost to Ireland in same world cup.
3.Australia lost to Bangladesh (Don't know date)
4.Australia lost to Zimbabwe yesterday
These are real upsets but there was many other instances in which strong team found themselves in trouble when batting first and nearly escaped in last.Pakistan was in trouble last day in start.
I'm not saying that lay strong team blindly when they bat first but we may find free lays and good trading opportunities when strong team after bad start have some recovery and then try to find good lay.We may found them again in1.0x zone at 50/3 because of market favouritism and take this as Entry Point even in slight higher odds.
2.When Strong Team Chasing Good Score In 1.1x Odds:Not going in detail just a example of last world cup match between South africa and Bangladesh in which Bangladesh batted first and scored 240+ and SA started chase at 1.1x and even after 2 or 3 wickets was in 1.1x zone because of the same reason market favouritism.
3.When Weak Team Chasing Low or Average Score and strong team odds are 1.1x:Generally in these conditions chances of trading opportunities are more than upsets.Any good over changes odds dramatically in most of the times.
4.Summary:General psychology is that if we missed 1.0x odds and then seeing some real movements what we do is either we back strong team in 1.2x odds or don't lay them.My personal experience is wait for some time than you may find 1.1x odds again to lay.Backing short odds without lay first is always risky.
I'm not trading today but follow these points and you may find
Selection,Entry Point and Exit Point In All Matches In Future Between Strong Team and Minnows (Twenty20 and Oneday's)
Good luck for today.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
South Africa v West Indies,Twenty20{Inplay}
Result:
Great finish by SA in last and won this match by 8 wickets.
Our trading plan worked in Prematch and 1st Inning.But not clicked in 2nd Inning specially in last.This is Twenty20 Cricket.
.................
2nd Update
SA 136/2 in 13 overs
Odds SA 1.47
Anyone remember how many flipflops so far?
Plan for remaining match is:
1.Lay SA in 1.2x zone anytime if comes.
2.Lay any team odds in 1.1x zone in last 3 overs.
.................
1st Update
West Indies 205/20 overs.
Odds 1.9 West Indies
SA required 206 in 20 overs at 10.3/over Not a easy task and our plan for 2nd inning is:
1.Lay SA in 1.4x in first 10 overs if reqd. rate above 9/over
2.Lay WI in 1.3 in first 10 overs after 2 wickets
...............
Hello and welcome back.South Africa won the toss and elected to field first.
This is first match of Twenty20 World Cup.Just a quick reminder this is the same venue where historic 430+ successful chase done by South Africa against Australia.
Present score is WI 14/0 in 2 overs.And odds are SA 1.61
Sitting on prematch lay of SA and want to wait and watch 10 overs.
Good luck
Any comments?
Great finish by SA in last and won this match by 8 wickets.
Our trading plan worked in Prematch and 1st Inning.But not clicked in 2nd Inning specially in last.This is Twenty20 Cricket.
.................
2nd Update
SA 136/2 in 13 overs
Odds SA 1.47
Anyone remember how many flipflops so far?
Plan for remaining match is:
1.Lay SA in 1.2x zone anytime if comes.
2.Lay any team odds in 1.1x zone in last 3 overs.
.................
1st Update
West Indies 205/20 overs.
Odds 1.9 West Indies
SA required 206 in 20 overs at 10.3/over Not a easy task and our plan for 2nd inning is:
1.Lay SA in 1.4x in first 10 overs if reqd. rate above 9/over
2.Lay WI in 1.3 in first 10 overs after 2 wickets
...............
Hello and welcome back.South Africa won the toss and elected to field first.
This is first match of Twenty20 World Cup.Just a quick reminder this is the same venue where historic 430+ successful chase done by South Africa against Australia.
Present score is WI 14/0 in 2 overs.And odds are SA 1.61
Sitting on prematch lay of SA and want to wait and watch 10 overs.
Good luck
Any comments?
Natwest Series,2007 P/L
Hello again,
Here i'm posting my P/L in each match played between England and India recently.
1st Odi Not traded
2nd Odi £813.1
3rd Odi £48.7
4th Odi £579.2
5th Odi £1020.8
6th Odi £422.4
7th Odi £13.8
NET P/L 2898.5
There was inplay posts in every match.
Thank mainly to The Betfair Trader , Mark Iverson , One Percent A Day and Trade On Sports
from these blogs i learn how to maintain discipline in sports trading and many other good trading strategies.Hope we will continue this in future (fingers crossed)
Wish you all very best for Twenty20 World Cup.
Bye bye
P.S:
There was a very good post on Trade On Sports by Pete Nordsted on How To Win On The Betfair Markets from which i want to quote:
..Add this information to devise a mechanical trading plan, combine it with discipline and money management and your success will be inevitable.Again I must reiterate that the only way to consistently profit from these markets is to learn how the market reacts to certain situations, and observe how often these situations repeat themselves. These situations repeat themselves time and time again and armed with this information it will ensure you are in a position to take full advantage when similar circumstances occur. I am always surprised when people go on a 1 day trading course and, all of a sudden think that they can become a master trader. The reality is a Doctor doesn’t do a days training and become a medical expert overnight!
Really a very good post.
please read it in full.
Here i'm posting my P/L in each match played between England and India recently.
1st Odi Not traded
2nd Odi £813.1
3rd Odi £48.7
4th Odi £579.2
5th Odi £1020.8
6th Odi £422.4
7th Odi £13.8
NET P/L 2898.5
There was inplay posts in every match.
Thank mainly to The Betfair Trader , Mark Iverson , One Percent A Day and Trade On Sports
from these blogs i learn how to maintain discipline in sports trading and many other good trading strategies.Hope we will continue this in future (fingers crossed)
Wish you all very best for Twenty20 World Cup.
Bye bye
P.S:
There was a very good post on Trade On Sports by Pete Nordsted on How To Win On The Betfair Markets from which i want to quote:
..Add this information to devise a mechanical trading plan, combine it with discipline and money management and your success will be inevitable.Again I must reiterate that the only way to consistently profit from these markets is to learn how the market reacts to certain situations, and observe how often these situations repeat themselves. These situations repeat themselves time and time again and armed with this information it will ensure you are in a position to take full advantage when similar circumstances occur. I am always surprised when people go on a 1 day trading course and, all of a sudden think that they can become a master trader. The reality is a Doctor doesn’t do a days training and become a medical expert overnight!
Really a very good post.
please read it in full.
Twenty20 World Cup Preview
Yesterday P/L £48.3
Trading on Middlesex v Derbyshire in 2nd inning ended with loss.Lay Middlesex in 1.07 and then waited.Plan was any wicket may drift odds in 1.1x zone but good opening partnership so ended with loss although backed most of at 1.04 to cut loss.
Twenty20 World Cup first match today and our plan for today and other matches in brief:
Free lays:if you remember previous posts in which i mentioned many times that chances of finding free lays (Prematch or Inplay) are more in either longest version of the game (Test cricket) or in shortest version (Twenty20) and it is proved many times. We traded on Twenty20 matches after start of this blog on 4th,August 2007 on Twenty20 finals day.
Check prematch post here and 1st Semifinal and 2nd semifinal and The Final 4th August 2007, Twenty20 cup posts and in last Results post on these matches.
We will discuss plan for prematch,inplay 1st and 2nd inning one by one in Twenty20 matches:
1.Prematch:
Quote from previous post "Generally market is very volatile in these matches and early short odds of any team(prematch or inplay) is good for lay it should be basic strategy for these matches" and also "It is my personal opinion that teams are almost equal in this format of cricket" (leave real minnows).I want to stick to this theory on Twenty20 matches.
for example today's match between Southafrica and Westindies and odds are SA favourites at 1.57 is good for small lay prematch because if WI bat first and couple of good over in start it will drift SA odds within minutes but if SA bat first there odds will not short more even after good start because there prematch odds are already in low zone and if early wickets than odds will drift.
As the matches goes on we may find teams which is on winning run may available in short odds prematch because of their last matches good performance.
2.First Innings Plan:Again my thinking is to lay any team below 1.3 in first innings and then wait even till last ball of the match.
3.Second Innings Plan:Flipflop in second innings is very common and lay any team in 1.2x zone anytime early then wait.But more focus on laying bat team even in 1.4x zone if chase is 170+
Again we try to understand it by today's match:
Assuming West indies bat first and made 165 in 20 overs.Than odds around break may be like SA 1.65
If SA in reply 40/0 in 5 overs and there odds will be in 1.3x zone.But if you calculate and analyse conditions deeply then you find 126 runs still required at 8.4/over.
In such condition SA odds will not move downward for some overs and chances of upward move is more because to score 8.4/over is not a easy task.
If bat team in 170+ chase available to lay around 1.3 when 3 wickets gone and 100+ runs required at over 7 runrate it is Golden Freelay as far i think.
Good Trading Opportunities Inplay:If chances of free lays are more than we will avoid any other opportunity in Twenty20 matches.
Summary:
Wait for short odds of any team prematch or inplay in all matches to lay with analysis of situation at that time.
Trading on Middlesex v Derbyshire in 2nd inning ended with loss.Lay Middlesex in 1.07 and then waited.Plan was any wicket may drift odds in 1.1x zone but good opening partnership so ended with loss although backed most of at 1.04 to cut loss.
Twenty20 World Cup first match today and our plan for today and other matches in brief:
Free lays:if you remember previous posts in which i mentioned many times that chances of finding free lays (Prematch or Inplay) are more in either longest version of the game (Test cricket) or in shortest version (Twenty20) and it is proved many times. We traded on Twenty20 matches after start of this blog on 4th,August 2007 on Twenty20 finals day.
Check prematch post here and 1st Semifinal and 2nd semifinal and The Final 4th August 2007, Twenty20 cup posts and in last Results post on these matches.
We will discuss plan for prematch,inplay 1st and 2nd inning one by one in Twenty20 matches:
1.Prematch:
Quote from previous post "Generally market is very volatile in these matches and early short odds of any team(prematch or inplay) is good for lay it should be basic strategy for these matches" and also "It is my personal opinion that teams are almost equal in this format of cricket" (leave real minnows).I want to stick to this theory on Twenty20 matches.
for example today's match between Southafrica and Westindies and odds are SA favourites at 1.57 is good for small lay prematch because if WI bat first and couple of good over in start it will drift SA odds within minutes but if SA bat first there odds will not short more even after good start because there prematch odds are already in low zone and if early wickets than odds will drift.
As the matches goes on we may find teams which is on winning run may available in short odds prematch because of their last matches good performance.
2.First Innings Plan:Again my thinking is to lay any team below 1.3 in first innings and then wait even till last ball of the match.
3.Second Innings Plan:Flipflop in second innings is very common and lay any team in 1.2x zone anytime early then wait.But more focus on laying bat team even in 1.4x zone if chase is 170+
Again we try to understand it by today's match:
Assuming West indies bat first and made 165 in 20 overs.Than odds around break may be like SA 1.65
If SA in reply 40/0 in 5 overs and there odds will be in 1.3x zone.But if you calculate and analyse conditions deeply then you find 126 runs still required at 8.4/over.
In such condition SA odds will not move downward for some overs and chances of upward move is more because to score 8.4/over is not a easy task.
If bat team in 170+ chase available to lay around 1.3 when 3 wickets gone and 100+ runs required at over 7 runrate it is Golden Freelay as far i think.
Good Trading Opportunities Inplay:If chances of free lays are more than we will avoid any other opportunity in Twenty20 matches.
Summary:
Wait for short odds of any team prematch or inplay in all matches to lay with analysis of situation at that time.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Middlesex v Derbyshire {Inplay}
Hello and welcome back.Cheers to all as 'King' is back from honeymoon (thebetfairtrader)
There was no plan to trade on this match but free now so going for 2nd inning.And the plan is:
Derby batted first and made 196/9 in 40 overs.Odds are Middlesex 1.18
1.Market mood is with Middlesex and we may find them soon at 1.07 to lay around 25/0 if no early wicket.Small lay at that time.
2.If early wickets than wait for lay around 1.1x zone when 125+ runs required and 3 wickets gone.
All the best.
There was no plan to trade on this match but free now so going for 2nd inning.And the plan is:
Derby batted first and made 196/9 in 40 overs.Odds are Middlesex 1.18
1.Market mood is with Middlesex and we may find them soon at 1.07 to lay around 25/0 if no early wicket.Small lay at that time.
2.If early wickets than wait for lay around 1.1x zone when 125+ runs required and 3 wickets gone.
All the best.
Everyone Wants Time
Hello and sorry for delayed post.Very busy days and no cricket match traded after 7th Odi with P/L of +£13.8 (mainly due to small lay of England in 2nd innings in 1.05 after 2 wickets as per plan).
Actually the problem is Mrs Dip wants time,Little Dip wants time,Job wants time so no time for cricket.
Last month was really hectic as county and international cricket matches almost everyday and i find it really difficult this month to trade cricket match everyday.Tiredness is also a reason.Post on general sports trading tips which i collected from many sites and hope everyone like it,is nearly completed but no time to edit.Also post on my overall P/L since start of blog is pending.I will try to get some time to post them before Twenty20 World Cup which will start from tuesday.
And yes there will be Inplay posts in these matches although very selected.
Till then good bye.
Actually the problem is Mrs Dip wants time,Little Dip wants time,Job wants time so no time for cricket.
Last month was really hectic as county and international cricket matches almost everyday and i find it really difficult this month to trade cricket match everyday.Tiredness is also a reason.Post on general sports trading tips which i collected from many sites and hope everyone like it,is nearly completed but no time to edit.Also post on my overall P/L since start of blog is pending.I will try to get some time to post them before Twenty20 World Cup which will start from tuesday.
And yes there will be Inplay posts in these matches although very selected.
Till then good bye.
Saturday, September 8, 2007
7th Odi,England v India{Inplay}
2nd Update
India 187 allout in 47.3 overs.
Odds England 1.14
Looking low score chase.Good for us in 2nd inning,so far no trade as there was wickets on regular interval.Plan for 2nd inning in advance:
1.Wait for bat team (England) below 1.05 for small lay.
2.If early wickets than after 3 wickets lay England in 1.1x zone with conditions at that time.
Basic plan is to enter when match looking tight otherwise leave this match for trading.
Adding some more that avoid backing England at short odds anytime unless layed first.
...................
1st Update
India 53/3 in 14 overs.
odds England 1.3
Interesting stage and as per our plan if some recovery seen we may lay them at 1.3x zone around 90/3
Any suggestions?
.........................
Hello and welcome to consecutive 7th Odi Inplay in series.Series levelled at 3-3 and hence it is final in Lords today.
Early news it that India won the toss and elected to bat first.And odds are England favourite at 1.73 may be due to cloud cover will help bowlers early.
Anyway what is our 1st innings plan:
*Wait for most of tradings in 2nd inning unless very good opportunity in 1st inning*
1.Back England 2.4+ in first 10 overs if comes
2.Lay England 1.3x in 10 overs if comes
3.Lay India 1.6x in 15 overs if comes
4.If early wickets than wait for recovery,than lay bowl team in 1.3x anytime if comes
5.Lay bat team (India) anytime in 1.3x zone
In all these plans take consideration of wickets and runs at that time also.
Wish you all good luck and suggestions/comments invited inplay.
India 187 allout in 47.3 overs.
Odds England 1.14
Looking low score chase.Good for us in 2nd inning,so far no trade as there was wickets on regular interval.Plan for 2nd inning in advance:
1.Wait for bat team (England) below 1.05 for small lay.
2.If early wickets than after 3 wickets lay England in 1.1x zone with conditions at that time.
Basic plan is to enter when match looking tight otherwise leave this match for trading.
Adding some more that avoid backing England at short odds anytime unless layed first.
...................
1st Update
India 53/3 in 14 overs.
odds England 1.3
Interesting stage and as per our plan if some recovery seen we may lay them at 1.3x zone around 90/3
Any suggestions?
.........................
Hello and welcome to consecutive 7th Odi Inplay in series.Series levelled at 3-3 and hence it is final in Lords today.
Early news it that India won the toss and elected to bat first.And odds are England favourite at 1.73 may be due to cloud cover will help bowlers early.
Anyway what is our 1st innings plan:
*Wait for most of tradings in 2nd inning unless very good opportunity in 1st inning*
1.Back England 2.4+ in first 10 overs if comes
2.Lay England 1.3x in 10 overs if comes
3.Lay India 1.6x in 15 overs if comes
4.If early wickets than wait for recovery,than lay bowl team in 1.3x anytime if comes
5.Lay bat team (India) anytime in 1.3x zone
In all these plans take consideration of wickets and runs at that time also.
Wish you all good luck and suggestions/comments invited inplay.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
No.1 Win In 6th Odi For Free Lays
Today P/L +£422.4
Hi,
I ranked this win at No.1 for free lays because there was so much struggle.Not in position to write more.Will update later.
Bye bye
England v India,6th Odi.Post Match Review Of Tradings
One of the best matches to trade,view but feeling heavily exhausted after match till now.There was really very good free lays in second inning (india chase) specially after 2 wickets and good trading opportunities in first inning.India won but many flip flops in match from start to end.We will analyse our tradings in each innings one by one.
1st Inning:
England won the toss and elected to bat.Wicket in first over and England was on backfoot then some recovery but after spinners come to bowl from 15th over life was hard for England batsmen.Our plan was to lay England just before spinners come at around 1.7 but at that time odds was not in this region so i avoided it.Then india restricted England to 137/5 in 30.2 overs and that time England score around 260 was in doubt and as i posted inplay update at that time that this is a tricky situation and view is to avoid any trade.India odds was in 1.4x zone at that time.Shah and Luke Wright (debut) was on crease and who ever imagine that carnage from them and Mascarenhas in last.It was first ODI match for wright and he played like a senior infact he turned the momentum first in my opinion.
In the end England posted huge score 316/6 in 50 overs.
What i want to highlight here is the good trading opportunities which we missed in the first inning was:
1.Small lay of England before spinners come to bowl.
2.Lay of india around 1.65 when Wright and Shah started hitting.Because at that time it was sure that England is going to make 260-270 at least and at that score odds of India in inning breaks is not going to below 1.85 so it was infact a good free lay.
2nd Inning:
Real test of free lays concept in second inning.317 to chase is not easy in any match.And our plan in Innings break update was same like previous high score chases which worked in past.
But the best opening pair in the world ever in ODI had different plan in mind and we were in trouble soon after backing England at 2.2x this was the most difficult situation so far for us in Natwest series and plan was to bail out first than think of any profit.As i posted at that time that this is wait and watch situation for me and i would like to see India in 1.4x zone if comes and we will consider any further trade at that time.Well indian openers went on make runs with ease and India odds shorten to 1.2x zone.This was the right time to lay them because required runrate was above 6 and in 5th inplay update i mention it.Than Tendulkar and Ganguly out in 4 overs and score was 156/2 in 26 overs.India odds drifted upto 1.69 and this match was looking to go either way.And then there was some golden and platinum free lays till last with wickets and runrate consideration.As i said before only one match i remember in recently seen in which over 310+ successfuly chased without flip flop was England v Srilanka in last year Natwest series if i'm not wrong.History was in favour of free lays.Summary is that there was many occasions when India at 1.3x odds in second inning specially after 2 or 3 wickets was best to lay because chances was high that India odds will stay at these odds for long or go upward in remaining match.
P.S:
Long post for me want to take some rest (I hate typing) and then new post on future matches.
Hi,
I ranked this win at No.1 for free lays because there was so much struggle.Not in position to write more.Will update later.
Bye bye
England v India,6th Odi.Post Match Review Of Tradings
One of the best matches to trade,view but feeling heavily exhausted after match till now.There was really very good free lays in second inning (india chase) specially after 2 wickets and good trading opportunities in first inning.India won but many flip flops in match from start to end.We will analyse our tradings in each innings one by one.
1st Inning:
England won the toss and elected to bat.Wicket in first over and England was on backfoot then some recovery but after spinners come to bowl from 15th over life was hard for England batsmen.Our plan was to lay England just before spinners come at around 1.7 but at that time odds was not in this region so i avoided it.Then india restricted England to 137/5 in 30.2 overs and that time England score around 260 was in doubt and as i posted inplay update at that time that this is a tricky situation and view is to avoid any trade.India odds was in 1.4x zone at that time.Shah and Luke Wright (debut) was on crease and who ever imagine that carnage from them and Mascarenhas in last.It was first ODI match for wright and he played like a senior infact he turned the momentum first in my opinion.
In the end England posted huge score 316/6 in 50 overs.
What i want to highlight here is the good trading opportunities which we missed in the first inning was:
1.Small lay of England before spinners come to bowl.
2.Lay of india around 1.65 when Wright and Shah started hitting.Because at that time it was sure that England is going to make 260-270 at least and at that score odds of India in inning breaks is not going to below 1.85 so it was infact a good free lay.
2nd Inning:
Real test of free lays concept in second inning.317 to chase is not easy in any match.And our plan in Innings break update was same like previous high score chases which worked in past.
But the best opening pair in the world ever in ODI had different plan in mind and we were in trouble soon after backing England at 2.2x this was the most difficult situation so far for us in Natwest series and plan was to bail out first than think of any profit.As i posted at that time that this is wait and watch situation for me and i would like to see India in 1.4x zone if comes and we will consider any further trade at that time.Well indian openers went on make runs with ease and India odds shorten to 1.2x zone.This was the right time to lay them because required runrate was above 6 and in 5th inplay update i mention it.Than Tendulkar and Ganguly out in 4 overs and score was 156/2 in 26 overs.India odds drifted upto 1.69 and this match was looking to go either way.And then there was some golden and platinum free lays till last with wickets and runrate consideration.As i said before only one match i remember in recently seen in which over 310+ successfuly chased without flip flop was England v Srilanka in last year Natwest series if i'm not wrong.History was in favour of free lays.Summary is that there was many occasions when India at 1.3x odds in second inning specially after 2 or 3 wickets was best to lay because chances was high that India odds will stay at these odds for long or go upward in remaining match.
P.S:
Long post for me want to take some rest (I hate typing) and then new post on future matches.
6th Odi,England v India{Inplay}
7th Update
Yuvraj gone India 209/3 odds India 1.42 well my advise is again to lay in 1.1x then back
...............
6th update
India 184/2.India before 2 wickets touch 1.19 and after them touched 1.69
Now the odds are 1.32 India lay them again as runrate is still in over 6
.................
5th Update
India 130/0 odds 1.28 Lay them or wait for 1.20 because till 200/0 it will not go downward below 1.16
.....................
4th Update
India 83/0 in 13 overs
Odds India 1.63
Good reply by India.
Backed England at 2.28 and now wait and watch time for me.If India Odds shorten upto 1.4x zone then we will do further trade with taking into account wickets and runrate at that time.
...................
3rd Update
England 316/6 50 overs (Lunch)
Odds England 1.51
Another high chase match.Always good for us.And plan will be:
1.Lay England 1.2x zone if early wicket then some recovery.
2.Back England 2.2+ if comes in 1st 10 overs.
3.Lay India in 1.5x zone if comes as free lay anytime after 2 wickets.
Basically same plan that was in previous matches which pay us then why to change plan.Unless law of average caught us this time (fingers crossed). ...................
2nd Update
England 106/4 in 23 ovrs
Odds India 1.56
Piyush Chawla come in 15th over and India odds start shortening and then two quick wickets and India in 1.4x zone.But i wonder why Collingwood was unhappy?
O.K now the situation is tricky and i want to avoid trade this time.Assume odds if England make 240,260 and 290.
Any thoughts please.
...................
1st Update
England 36/2 7 overs
Odds India 1.89
Gates are opened little bit and we will try to find good trading opportunity before spinners come to bowl and England odds around 1.7 at that time.
...................
Hello and welcome back.England won the toss and elected to bat first.
Odds England 1.79
And our plan for the 1st inning is:
1.Lay any team at 1.2x odds in first inning with analysis of situation *if quick wickets than lay bowl team when some stability seen in bat team*
2.Lay bat team (England) 1.4x in first inning any time as free lay.
3.Wait for 2nd inning for most of the trading opportunity as always.
4.Stick to basics
Best wishes
Waiting for suggestions.
Yuvraj gone India 209/3 odds India 1.42 well my advise is again to lay in 1.1x then back
...............
6th update
India 184/2.India before 2 wickets touch 1.19 and after them touched 1.69
Now the odds are 1.32 India lay them again as runrate is still in over 6
.................
5th Update
India 130/0 odds 1.28 Lay them or wait for 1.20 because till 200/0 it will not go downward below 1.16
.....................
4th Update
India 83/0 in 13 overs
Odds India 1.63
Good reply by India.
Backed England at 2.28 and now wait and watch time for me.If India Odds shorten upto 1.4x zone then we will do further trade with taking into account wickets and runrate at that time.
...................
3rd Update
England 316/6 50 overs (Lunch)
Odds England 1.51
Another high chase match.Always good for us.And plan will be:
1.Lay England 1.2x zone if early wicket then some recovery.
2.Back England 2.2+ if comes in 1st 10 overs.
3.Lay India in 1.5x zone if comes as free lay anytime after 2 wickets.
Basically same plan that was in previous matches which pay us then why to change plan.Unless law of average caught us this time (fingers crossed). ...................
2nd Update
England 106/4 in 23 ovrs
Odds India 1.56
Piyush Chawla come in 15th over and India odds start shortening and then two quick wickets and India in 1.4x zone.But i wonder why Collingwood was unhappy?
O.K now the situation is tricky and i want to avoid trade this time.Assume odds if England make 240,260 and 290.
Any thoughts please.
...................
1st Update
England 36/2 7 overs
Odds India 1.89
Gates are opened little bit and we will try to find good trading opportunity before spinners come to bowl and England odds around 1.7 at that time.
...................
Hello and welcome back.England won the toss and elected to bat first.
Odds England 1.79
And our plan for the 1st inning is:
1.Lay any team at 1.2x odds in first inning with analysis of situation *if quick wickets than lay bowl team when some stability seen in bat team*
2.Lay bat team (England) 1.4x in first inning any time as free lay.
3.Wait for 2nd inning for most of the trading opportunity as always.
4.Stick to basics
Best wishes
Waiting for suggestions.
6th Odi,England v India And Our Prematch Homework
Yesterday P/L +£124.2
Hello,
Today is 6th odi between England and India at Kennington Oval, London
Before going to trade we have to do homework like:
1.Venue:Kennington Oval, London look for pitch behavior.
2.Early odds:England favourites at 1.89
3.Weather: courtesy yahoo.com
4.Previous records at venue check statsguru,courtesy cricinfo.com
5.Key players:Fit or not
6.Mood of the market.It is very important and someone said right that watch market more than match
7.Money management:How much you can afford
8.Plan your lay then how to back.
These are few points everyone take consideration before get involved. Do we have any free lay at present market?I think no.Because odds are high and always try to find free lay in low odds.Like if market open for this Odi 1.4 any team than there may be some opportunity we may find.
In brief weather looking fine,pitch is looking good for batting,market mood is with England and not much news on teams so far.
We will wait for toss and than decide our trades.May be again do most of the trading in second inning if there is high or low chase unless any good free lay or trading opportunity in first inning.
Now quick look at yesterday pro40 match and our trades:
Kent v surrey:
Great match it was and decided on last ball.Strong possibility of Tie at one stage in match which gives us lesson to see Tie Market in future.Surrey won the match but not easily or one sided as it was looking at one time.I mentioned inplay also that never back any team in short odds in last when match is looking to go anyside.This policy will save your big money many times in future.
Summary is that lay Surrey in short odds before fall of wickets two times we are in profit yesterday.Please check again Lay 1.04 Odds And Results for further.
looking for suggestions/plan from your side till match starts and also expecting them inplay.Wish you all good luck for todays game.
Hello,
Today is 6th odi between England and India at Kennington Oval, London
Before going to trade we have to do homework like:
1.Venue:Kennington Oval, London look for pitch behavior.
2.Early odds:England favourites at 1.89
3.Weather: courtesy yahoo.com
4.Previous records at venue check statsguru,courtesy cricinfo.com
5.Key players:Fit or not
6.Mood of the market.It is very important and someone said right that watch market more than match
7.Money management:How much you can afford
8.Plan your lay then how to back.
These are few points everyone take consideration before get involved. Do we have any free lay at present market?I think no.Because odds are high and always try to find free lay in low odds.Like if market open for this Odi 1.4 any team than there may be some opportunity we may find.
In brief weather looking fine,pitch is looking good for batting,market mood is with England and not much news on teams so far.
We will wait for toss and than decide our trades.May be again do most of the trading in second inning if there is high or low chase unless any good free lay or trading opportunity in first inning.
Now quick look at yesterday pro40 match and our trades:
Kent v surrey:
Great match it was and decided on last ball.Strong possibility of Tie at one stage in match which gives us lesson to see Tie Market in future.Surrey won the match but not easily or one sided as it was looking at one time.I mentioned inplay also that never back any team in short odds in last when match is looking to go anyside.This policy will save your big money many times in future.
Summary is that lay Surrey in short odds before fall of wickets two times we are in profit yesterday.Please check again Lay 1.04 Odds And Results for further.
looking for suggestions/plan from your side till match starts and also expecting them inplay.Wish you all good luck for todays game.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Kent v Surrey, Pro40 {Inplay}
Final Update
Surrey 5 down now and there odds are in 1.3x zone.Our plan going well.Those who are regular here know that recently there was a post by title 'Lay 1.04 Odds And Results' in which i mention Lay bat team with analysis specially when chasing at 1.04 odds we may get chance to back at 1.1x zone in 7/10 times and in worst case at least in 5/10 times.
Anyway what is our planning now.We all are in profit on any result so this should be our exit point.
Those who want to trade further should keep in mind runrate,wickets and try to find a good free lay in 1.1x zone but beware any good over for surrey or wickets for Kent can dramatically change Odds as required runs are not to much.But at least don't back bat team (Surrey) at shorts odds from now on.Infact any team on short odds.
Good night to all.
..................
3rd Update
Surrey 2 down.Hope everyone lay them before these wickets.Now my advise is to back 80% on Surrey and repeat it again if opportunity comes.
.................
2nd Update
Kent 159/8 40 overs
Odds 1.08 Surrey
Low chase and Surrey might available at 1.03 to lay if they will be around 15 runs for no wicket.But if there is early wickets then we will wait and see because runrate is of no matter in this low chase and Kent can only win by bowled out Surrey.
So far small red on Surrey in 1st inning.
(small lay at 1.17 then back 80% on 1.15)
.................
1st Update
Kent 80/5 and Odds are Surrey 1.16
Small lay of surrey now and than wait.
................
Hi,
Good Evening.Match started on time but i missed staring overs now the score is 32/3 in 10 overs while Kent batting first.
Odds 1.3 Surrey
Well it is wait and watch condition for few overs and our plan is to lay Surrey in 1.4x zone if Kent at that time around 120/4 in 30 overs and yes our main trading may be again in 2nd inning as usual.
Inplay plan,strategy for this match is most welcome.
Surrey 5 down now and there odds are in 1.3x zone.Our plan going well.Those who are regular here know that recently there was a post by title 'Lay 1.04 Odds And Results' in which i mention Lay bat team with analysis specially when chasing at 1.04 odds we may get chance to back at 1.1x zone in 7/10 times and in worst case at least in 5/10 times.
Anyway what is our planning now.We all are in profit on any result so this should be our exit point.
Those who want to trade further should keep in mind runrate,wickets and try to find a good free lay in 1.1x zone but beware any good over for surrey or wickets for Kent can dramatically change Odds as required runs are not to much.But at least don't back bat team (Surrey) at shorts odds from now on.Infact any team on short odds.
Good night to all.
..................
3rd Update
Surrey 2 down.Hope everyone lay them before these wickets.Now my advise is to back 80% on Surrey and repeat it again if opportunity comes.
.................
2nd Update
Kent 159/8 40 overs
Odds 1.08 Surrey
Low chase and Surrey might available at 1.03 to lay if they will be around 15 runs for no wicket.But if there is early wickets then we will wait and see because runrate is of no matter in this low chase and Kent can only win by bowled out Surrey.
So far small red on Surrey in 1st inning.
(small lay at 1.17 then back 80% on 1.15)
.................
1st Update
Kent 80/5 and Odds are Surrey 1.16
Small lay of surrey now and than wait.
................
Hi,
Good Evening.Match started on time but i missed staring overs now the score is 32/3 in 10 overs while Kent batting first.
Odds 1.3 Surrey
Well it is wait and watch condition for few overs and our plan is to lay Surrey in 1.4x zone if Kent at that time around 120/4 in 30 overs and yes our main trading may be again in 2nd inning as usual.
Inplay plan,strategy for this match is most welcome.
Please Vote Or Comment For Inplay Posts
Hello Again,
I started a poll today about inplay posts.That is because i'm not seeing much interest in these posts as there are no inplay comments.Cricket is a lengthy game and we get enough time to make our plan eg. Inning break in Odi,Day plan for Test matches and i requested many time that we must do collective efforts to find 'free lays and good trading opportunities' either inplay or prematch and help each other.And that is not seen so far since start.
So please vote or send comments to whether continue them or just post my P/L after matches.
Thanks
I started a poll today about inplay posts.That is because i'm not seeing much interest in these posts as there are no inplay comments.Cricket is a lengthy game and we get enough time to make our plan eg. Inning break in Odi,Day plan for Test matches and i requested many time that we must do collective efforts to find 'free lays and good trading opportunities' either inplay or prematch and help each other.And that is not seen so far since start.
So please vote or send comments to whether continue them or just post my P/L after matches.
Thanks
Pro40 Division Two Matches Today,4 September
Hello Everyone,
Welcome back.Today is 2 pro40 Division Two matches.
Frankly saying i feel more comfortable in international cricket matches than county matches even though flip flops are more common in county.Reason simple is that we know gaming conditions,players status,venue,weather,pitch and market mood etc more in international matches mainly due to huge coverage in media than county matches.In brief little homework required in International matches than county.Anyway today is two pro40 matches:
1.Derbyshire v Durham at Chesterfield 12:45 GMT
2.Kent v Surrey at
Canterbury 15:40 GMT
Odds:
Durham is favourite In the first match at 1.4 and Surrey and Kent are at evens in second.
Kent v Surrey match is live on Sky Sports 1 and i will try my best to involve in that match.
P.S:
I put live cricket score card in top right of the page courtesy vcricket.com which will work in international cricket matches with auto update function.Searching html code for county matches also for blog.If you know any please let me know.
Thanks in advance.
Bye bye and Good luck.
Welcome back.Today is 2 pro40 Division Two matches.
Frankly saying i feel more comfortable in international cricket matches than county matches even though flip flops are more common in county.Reason simple is that we know gaming conditions,players status,venue,weather,pitch and market mood etc more in international matches mainly due to huge coverage in media than county matches.In brief little homework required in International matches than county.Anyway today is two pro40 matches:
1.Derbyshire v Durham at Chesterfield 12:45 GMT
2.Kent v Surrey at
Canterbury 15:40 GMT
Odds:
Durham is favourite In the first match at 1.4 and Surrey and Kent are at evens in second.
Kent v Surrey match is live on Sky Sports 1 and i will try my best to involve in that match.
P.S:
I put live cricket score card in top right of the page courtesy vcricket.com which will work in international cricket matches with auto update function.Searching html code for county matches also for blog.If you know any please let me know.
Thanks in advance.
Bye bye and Good luck.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Big Win In 5th Odi With Difference
Yesterday P/L +1020.8
This is the biggest win since start of blog and it is interesting that main contribution is from going against bowling team when target was high in 2nd inning than back them with topup.Another thing which i want to mention is that in first inning our first trade looking going against us and then we recover.So it is a win with difference.
We will discuss each innings trade in 5th Odi one by one:
1st Inning:
You can see in my inplay post that our planning was small back of England around 1.9+ along with other plans and my prediction was that market favouring England and any wicket may cut england by 0.3 at least but this was not happened and Indian openers after quiet start going for shots and soon there was flip flop.Then India odds starts shortening and reached to 1.4x zone,it was a true 'free lay' simply because if India make 300 or 320 than even odds going to be in 1.4x zone.It happened two or three times that odds drifted to 1.6x zone from 1.4x or 1.5x zone specially after fall of 1st two wickets and because of these lay and back we were in small green position on India after the end of 1st inning.
2nd Inning:
India made 324 and odds was 1.48 after 1st inning.I mentioned inplay that if the match looking to be high scoring then we will do most of the trading in 2nd inning.And the plan was to back 'India 1.8+ if comes early or lay them in 1.2' if there is couple of early wickets.But infact we find India odds around 1.2 after fall of 1st wicket (cook) due to slow start of England.And lay of India at 1.2 looking good when there odds started upwards with England batsmen hitting.I back India at 1.45,1.59 and 1.88 with top up.Then some quick couple of wickets and India odds shortened to 1.16 and this was our exit point.
So this win is different because first trade was not good,than a free lay,than lay of bowling team in 2nd inning although it was high chase and lastly back them with top up.Things going well in our side most of the times (fingers crossed).
P.S:
Just a little mention of P/L of last match i traded before 5th Odi (warwickshire v lancashire) I left that match in middle with a small profit of 38.7 due to some important work and thats why there was no inplay update after first.
Busy with some urgent work and probably miss todays pro40 match.If i got time than may be inplay post in 2nd inning.Best wishes to all.
This is the biggest win since start of blog and it is interesting that main contribution is from going against bowling team when target was high in 2nd inning than back them with topup.Another thing which i want to mention is that in first inning our first trade looking going against us and then we recover.So it is a win with difference.
We will discuss each innings trade in 5th Odi one by one:
1st Inning:
You can see in my inplay post that our planning was small back of England around 1.9+ along with other plans and my prediction was that market favouring England and any wicket may cut england by 0.3 at least but this was not happened and Indian openers after quiet start going for shots and soon there was flip flop.Then India odds starts shortening and reached to 1.4x zone,it was a true 'free lay' simply because if India make 300 or 320 than even odds going to be in 1.4x zone.It happened two or three times that odds drifted to 1.6x zone from 1.4x or 1.5x zone specially after fall of 1st two wickets and because of these lay and back we were in small green position on India after the end of 1st inning.
2nd Inning:
India made 324 and odds was 1.48 after 1st inning.I mentioned inplay that if the match looking to be high scoring then we will do most of the trading in 2nd inning.And the plan was to back 'India 1.8+ if comes early or lay them in 1.2' if there is couple of early wickets.But infact we find India odds around 1.2 after fall of 1st wicket (cook) due to slow start of England.And lay of India at 1.2 looking good when there odds started upwards with England batsmen hitting.I back India at 1.45,1.59 and 1.88 with top up.Then some quick couple of wickets and India odds shortened to 1.16 and this was our exit point.
So this win is different because first trade was not good,than a free lay,than lay of bowling team in 2nd inning although it was high chase and lastly back them with top up.Things going well in our side most of the times (fingers crossed).
P.S:
Just a little mention of P/L of last match i traded before 5th Odi (warwickshire v lancashire) I left that match in middle with a small profit of 38.7 due to some important work and thats why there was no inplay update after first.
Busy with some urgent work and probably miss todays pro40 match.If i got time than may be inplay post in 2nd inning.Best wishes to all.
Sunday, September 2, 2007
5th Odi,England v India{Inplay}
Special Update
Rain stopped play after 16.3 overs and giving us pain.Hope it will go soon.
..............
Last Update
We lay India in 1.2 after 1 wicket than before 2nd wicket India odds drifted
upto 1.9 and now odds are India 1.16 after 3rd wicket hope everyone cleared their positions.
Cheers and Good night
.................
3rd Update (Lunch)
India 324 in 50 overs
Odds India 1.48
England need 325 to win in 50 overs if rain stays away.Wicket is looking good for batting and our 2nd inning plan is to back India at 1.8+ odds if comes in first 10 overs but if England score fast in starting overs then wait for more better odds.Other plan is to lay India around 1.2 if there is early fall of 2 wickets.
.................
2nd Update
India 165/2 30 overs
Odds India 1.6
Looking high score chase and waiting for 2nd inning.Trades so far in 1st inning are mixed but yes India at 1.46 was a good free lay.Next update will be at innings break.
...............
1st Update
India 57/0
Odds India 1.68
So far small back of England at 1.9.Flipflop but no need to worry wait for India odds in 1.5x zone and assume what will be odds if India score 300 or 270 in higher case.
................
Hello everyone.
Really busy nowdays but for this odi hopefully there will be no interruptions for me and from weather.So what is our plan today:
England won the toss and elected to field first.And odds reacted by favouring England more.This is good for us.And our plan will be for 1st inning.
1.Wait and watch 1st 10 overs
2.Lay any team in 1st inning in 1.2x zone before 25 overs
3.Lay bat team (India) low any time in 1st inning at 1.5x zone
4.If looking high scoring match than wait for 2nd inning for most of the trading opportunities
5.Small back of England at 1.9+ in first 5 overs of 1st inning for quick trading opportunity.
Rain stopped play after 16.3 overs and giving us pain.Hope it will go soon.
..............
Last Update
We lay India in 1.2 after 1 wicket than before 2nd wicket India odds drifted
upto 1.9 and now odds are India 1.16 after 3rd wicket hope everyone cleared their positions.
Cheers and Good night
.................
3rd Update (Lunch)
India 324 in 50 overs
Odds India 1.48
England need 325 to win in 50 overs if rain stays away.Wicket is looking good for batting and our 2nd inning plan is to back India at 1.8+ odds if comes in first 10 overs but if England score fast in starting overs then wait for more better odds.Other plan is to lay India around 1.2 if there is early fall of 2 wickets.
.................
2nd Update
India 165/2 30 overs
Odds India 1.6
Looking high score chase and waiting for 2nd inning.Trades so far in 1st inning are mixed but yes India at 1.46 was a good free lay.Next update will be at innings break.
...............
1st Update
India 57/0
Odds India 1.68
So far small back of England at 1.9.Flipflop but no need to worry wait for India odds in 1.5x zone and assume what will be odds if India score 300 or 270 in higher case.
................
Hello everyone.
Really busy nowdays but for this odi hopefully there will be no interruptions for me and from weather.So what is our plan today:
England won the toss and elected to field first.And odds reacted by favouring England more.This is good for us.And our plan will be for 1st inning.
1.Wait and watch 1st 10 overs
2.Lay any team in 1st inning in 1.2x zone before 25 overs
3.Lay bat team (India) low any time in 1st inning at 1.5x zone
4.If looking high scoring match than wait for 2nd inning for most of the trading opportunities
5.Small back of England at 1.9+ in first 5 overs of 1st inning for quick trading opportunity.
Saturday, September 1, 2007
Pro40,1st September Warwick v Lancashire {inplay}
1st Update
Lanca 107/0 14 overs
Odds Lanca 1.28
Plan is small lay of lanca now and then wait odds in 1.1x zone if comes with runrate and wickets that time.But may be will involve further only when 2 or 3 wickets down.
..................
Hello and welcome to our first match in new month.
Nearly missed first inning,not intentially but due to some commitments.
Warwickshire bat first and make 253/7 in 40 overs.runrate 6.32
Odds Warwick 1.54
We will start our trading in 2nd inning after see first 5 overs.Meanwhile please send comments in this blog on this match.
Lanca 107/0 14 overs
Odds Lanca 1.28
Plan is small lay of lanca now and then wait odds in 1.1x zone if comes with runrate and wickets that time.But may be will involve further only when 2 or 3 wickets down.
..................
Hello and welcome to our first match in new month.
Nearly missed first inning,not intentially but due to some commitments.
Warwickshire bat first and make 253/7 in 40 overs.runrate 6.32
Odds Warwick 1.54
We will start our trading in 2nd inning after see first 5 overs.Meanwhile please send comments in this blog on this match.
Lay 1.04 Odds And Results
Yesterday P/L -£28
It is bad to end month with a loss but overall month of august was great for our free lays and trading opportunities and we are in good profit (touchwood).
Loss in yesterday pro40 match in 2nd inning was because Sussex openers bat well and there was not much scope left for bowlers as target was low.
In the last post i mentioned that in a low chase we should try to enter when atleast 3 wickets down.But it is also true that when you lay bat team early in 1.04 there are chances in 7 out of 10 that odds will drift to 1.10 and if you do it constantly you are in profit for example:
(assuming lay 1.04 for 1000=40 in each and bat team won in all)
1) 7x40=280 profit if back 800 on 1.10 if odds drift
2) 3x22=66 loss if you back 900 on 1.02 if odds shorten
Result:280-66 =+214
Overall we are in profit even if odds drift in 50% matches and if there any flipflop atleast in one match than this figure become more.
.............
Please send comments.I will post my monthly and overall P/L since start of blog as early as possible with analysis of matches in which we involved in brief.
Good luck to all in new month.
It is bad to end month with a loss but overall month of august was great for our free lays and trading opportunities and we are in good profit (touchwood).
Loss in yesterday pro40 match in 2nd inning was because Sussex openers bat well and there was not much scope left for bowlers as target was low.
In the last post i mentioned that in a low chase we should try to enter when atleast 3 wickets down.But it is also true that when you lay bat team early in 1.04 there are chances in 7 out of 10 that odds will drift to 1.10 and if you do it constantly you are in profit for example:
(assuming lay 1.04 for 1000=40 in each and bat team won in all)
1) 7x40=280 profit if back 800 on 1.10 if odds drift
2) 3x22=66 loss if you back 900 on 1.02 if odds shorten
Result:280-66 =+214
Overall we are in profit even if odds drift in 50% matches and if there any flipflop atleast in one match than this figure become more.
.............
Please send comments.I will post my monthly and overall P/L since start of blog as early as possible with analysis of matches in which we involved in brief.
Good luck to all in new month.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
