Hello,
5 One-day cricket series will start from tomorrow in Lanka.Muralidharan not playing 1st three games.Flintoff is not available for whole series.
1st three games will be played at Dambulla in Colombo.
Pitch report:It generally favours fast bowlers but some help for spin bowlers towards end as per past records.
Weather is not looking good because chances of rain are 50%
Strategy for series:
1st ODI (9AM:GMT) odds are Lanka 1.46 as favourites.So just apply 'Predict target odds' if Lanka bat first and electric start from Jayasurya then we may see Lanka odds in 1.2x zone early as free lay.Basic plan is Lanka odds are very short indicative of market favouritism heavily towards them.So we may find some very good free lays and trading opportunities in the series.
Key Points:
1.First 3 oneday at same venue which help seam bowlers.
2.Murli is not playing in all three.
3.Both teams are just back from Twenty20 cricket.
4.Lanka odds are short and if they win 1st match.We may see more short odds in next matches.
5.Best advise:Never back short odds in start.And try to find good free lay if Lanka bat first and do well in start.
I will try for 'inplay' post tomorrow.
Please post you thoughts/plan for the series.It will help all.
Thanks for reading.
P.S:
Advise which i given many times before the start of series/match and repeating again:
Most important:Always try to find batting team in short odds to lay in any version of cricket.
1.Always avoid spread bets.They are lottery.Most of the times kills match trading.
2.Reduced stakes and always try to play(lay) in low odds:
More than 365 cricket matches per year.If you trade 200 and win £50 in 140 and loss £25 in 60 then at the end of year profit is 7000-1500=£5500 it is only possible by 'low stakes and playing with low odds'
I tried reduced stakes in Twenty20 and found it extremely helpful to make profit in most of the matches either small or moderate and reduce big losses if things are not going my way in any match.And if you lay low odds then chances of small loss and big benefit always seen.
3.Trade minimum in 1st innings unless there is very good free lay or trading opportunity.So avoid jumping before the first ball bowled.
4.Always look for high chase or low chase matches and save money for trading on these matches.Chances of free lays are 4 times more in 2nd innings in these situations.
5.Write down your lay/back or back/lay plan in advance:It is very important eg.you layed any team for 1k in 1.22 then what you will do if odds are 1.48 or 1.16 after sometime.Don't apply mind at that time it should be very clear when you layed and follow that like machine or robot.
Just follow these points and see your P/L after one month.
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2 comments:
great post....i have been following your blog for just over a month now and have gotten some very good ideas from it. keep up the good work!!!
Thanks o2g2 for your kind words and visit.
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