Our good friend Neil provided it to us and we must appreciate all the homework done by him.
Here is the preview by Neil :
It seems like an age since the last Test match action between England
and South Africa however I have still enjoyed England's surprising
performance against South Africa in the odis and the exciting climax to
the English county season the highlight for me was Durham turning round
a 16 point deficit in the final round of county championship matches to
win the title and hence landing my each way bet on them @ 5/1 which I
mentioned in a preview in April perhaps I should stick to county cricket
as I certainly seem to have had more success in that sphere than
international matches recently.
India play Australia on Thursday morning at Bangalore in the first match
of a four test series the match is due to commence at 5am U.K time
I believe the outcome of this series is particularly difficult to call
with doubts about both teams.
India - the home team are always very difficult to beat in their
conditions and as recently as the beginning of the year they ran
Australia very close in an away test series finally losing the series
2-1 however since then they have drawn a series at home to South Africa
and lost a 3 match series 2-1 in Sri Lanka when some of their more
experienced batsmen performed poorly.
Their overall record in test matches since January 2007 is as follows
Played 19 won 6 drawn 7 and lost 6 this breaks down between home played
6 won 2 drawn 3 and lost 1 and away played 13 won 4 drawn 4 and lost 5
they are currently ranked 3rd in the ICC test rankings with 109 points.
Australia -since the beginning of the year they have lost the services
of Warne, Gilchrist and Mcgrath the loss of three top class
internationals has obviously affected the teams performance however they
have still only lost one test since the beginning of 2007 in May they
won a series away in the West Indies 2-0 although they were put under
pressure by the Windies at various times throughout the series.
They have arrived in India without Andrew Symonds who has been dropped
for disciplinary matters and the loss of his batting is sure to affect
the team further.
It is hardly a secret that spin bowling has a big part to play in most
tests in India and the loss of Shane Warne could well have a major
bearing on this series with none of his replacements possessing anything
near his abilities.
Even so Australia will no doubt be very competitive and be difficult to
beat.
Their overall record in test matches from the beginning of 2007 is as
follows Played 10 won 7 and drawn 2 broken down between at home played 7
won 5 drawn 1 and lost 1 and away played 3 won 2 and drawn 1 they are
currently easily top of the ICC rankings with 138 points.
I have used the last 10 matches dating back to 1987 for the statistical
analysis for Bangalore from these India have won 3 lost 5 and drawn 2
one of these draws against England in 2001 was severely affected by rain
with over 2 days play lost. The toss winner has won 5 and lost 3 and the
toss winner has elected to bat first in all 10 matches. The average
number of overs to complete is 340 and the average innings score is 302
however in the last two tests to be played here both matches have gone
the full 5 days and the average innings score has increased to 415.
Team news this remains a matter of conjecture at this stage but my guess
is that India will play their 5 most experienced batsmen
Dravid,Ganguly,Laxman, Tendulkar and Sehwag keeper Dhoni two spinners in
Captain Kumble and Harbhajan and three pace bowlers from the impressive
young quick Ishant Sharma, Zaheer Khan ,R.P Singh and Munaf Patel
Australia - batsmen captain Ponting, Michael Clarke, Hayden Jacques and
Hussey keeper Haddin all rounder Watson their three most experienced
pace bowlers in Lee, Clark and Johnson and a spin bowler either Cameron
White who has more of a reputation as a one day bowler and hard hitting
batsman or off spinner Krejza who has not impressed in the warm up
matches.
Weather- I have checked three internet weather sites one shows little
chance of rain the other two show the possibility of some rain however
these sites can be notoriously inaccurate.
My tissue for this match is below
India 2/1
Australia 2/1
The draw 2/1
This may appear to be a gross simplification however there have only
been 2 draws in the last 10 matches and one of these was severely
weather affected that would put the draw price @ 4/1 the last two
matches played here have gone the whole distance with one finishing in a
draw and both India and Australia have strong batting line ups on paper
so I have reduced the price to 2/1 I cannot split the two teams in my
mind at the moment particularly with India possessing superior spin
bowlers in what should be advantageous home conditions so I have gone
with 2/1 on any result .
At the time of writing the best prices available with the bookmakers are
as follows India 12/5 (boylesports) Australia 5/2(sporting bet to a few
pennies! ) and the draw 5/4(William Hills & Paddy Power) and on the
exchanges to back India 3.5 Aus 3.7 the draw 2.2.
I have already got a little on the draw at an average of 2.55 and will
look to trade out of this if it dips below 2.0 early in the match I
shall also be looking to back any result if the price drifts above 7.0
on the first morning however I will mainly be following Dips trading
rooms advice for this match my £25 fun bet with the bookies will be
placed on Australia as they are marginally the highest price im sure
sporting will allow a £25 bet!
Good luck and regards
Neil
