LIVE CRICKET TRADING ROOM

Dear Reader,
I hope by now you have found my blog to be very useful in highlighting the low risk trading opportunities shown by trading on Test match and limited overs cricket and indeed I hope that you have profited from my advice.
Earlier in the year I was approached by Pete Nordsted of the blog http://tradeonsports.blogspot.com/ who suggested that we start a live cricket trading room. He felt that my methods were extremely successful and that a live trading room would be very popular. I thought about it for a while and have decided to go ahead with this project.
As many of you will have seen from this blog I believe I have an eye for knowing the right time and odds to LAY teams during a match. These trades are always ‘low risk’ with the potential for much larger gains. Indeed in some games like the recent India v Pakistan ODI & recent Test matches we have gained substantial profits.

In the live trading room we will be covering Test Matches One Day Internationals; Twenty20 matches International and Domestic, Pro40 & Friends Provident Trophy.


I will instruct exactly when you should Lay, place your stop loss and indeed exit the trade.


You can join this service for £20 a month. The first months service will start on 20th January 2008 with the South Africa v West Indies ODI and finish on 29th February. From then on subscription will be by the calendar month.

So confident are we to the profitability of this service that should you join the monthly service and not show a profit during the month. You will either receive a choice of a £10 refund or the next months service entirely free.

Please note so as not to effect the market numbers joining this service will be strictly limited.

If you are interested in joining this service please go to http://tradeonsports.co.uk/cricket.htm to register your interest. In a few days time you will receive an e-mail advising you that your membership for the trading room has become active and details of how to pay will also be included in this e-mail.

I sincerely hope you will join us on this venture as we are anticipating a very profitable and successful 2008.

Should you have any further queries please e-mail admin@tradeonsports.co.uk or findfreelay@gmail.com

I will post as usual till the start of LIVE CRICKET TRADING ROOM
in this blog.
All the best and happy new year!

Dip

South Africa v West Indies,1st Test-Day 3 {Inplay}

Update, Stumps (3rd day)

Another great day for us.West Indies classic collapso at last ;-).
Our Draw lay around 2.2x and South Africa back @ 7+ performed well :-).
Good night and all the best.

Will update tomorrow.
...............
Hello and welcome back.
South Africa bowled out for 195 runs.West Indies lead by 213 runs.
West Indies decided to bat again and not enforcing follow on.
Odds are
SA 5.6
Draw 2.9
WI 2.06
Plan is:
1.Lay WI 1.7x or below as free lay whenever comes today.
2.Back WI 3+ specially after quick wickets.
3.Back SA 7+ as good trading opportunity if comes early after good start.
4.Draw:
Odds are most confusing so far.But as i said before bookies knows more than us so it is better to leave it or back Draw 4+
Draw lay in high odds is risky imo.
Consider lay around 2.2x if comes today.
All the best.

South Africa v West Indies,1st Test-Day 2 {Inplay}

Hello everyone and welcome to our inplay post.
First apologies for lack of updates but very busy days for me.
Excellent test so far from trading point of view also for our prematch free lay of SA in 1.4 :-).
.................
Current score is West Indies 379/7 in 121 overs.
Odds are SA 4.6,Draw 1.6 and WI 5.9
Frankly Don't know why Draw is so short. Is it because of bad weather forecast or flat pitch?
Or combination of both?
Weather sites are not indicating any big threat of rain.
But one thing is sure bookies know more than us and if they are predicting this test match result Draw from here it is better to wait and watch before South Africa comes to bat.
At that time consider lay Draw in 1.4x for 10 overs in start or wait for some time and if SA start well then consider lay Draw around 1.3 as free lay.
Good trading opportunity definately will be in backing West Indies 10+ if South Africa bat well in start.
I will try my best for update.
All the best.

Australia v India,1st Test:Update,Stumps (Day One)

Great day for us specially on free lays front:-).Plans worked on day 1 of this test match but frankly i was more interested in free lay as always.

Australia bat first and score at stumps on day 1 is 337/9 in 90 overs.
If you want to know what was the plan for day 1,i am posting it here again(originally posted on December 24, 2007):
"Plan(s):

1.Australia

>Lay 1.4x or below if comes as free lay preferably on day one.

>Back 2.2+ for long position.

2.Draw:

>Lay 2.4 or below.

>Back 4+ for long position.

3.India:

Hmmmm.....

>Lay 4.5 or below.

>Back 20+ if Australia bat first and comes in first 10-15 overs for a quick trading opportunity."
.................
Anyway I try to trade Test matches on daily basis and tomorrow is another day.I will post my plans for tomorrow later.
Good luck.

Safest Cricket Trading:Always Try To back 1.8+ And Try To Find Free Lay In 1.5x Or Below

Hello and welcome back,
Some readers of this blog often complaints that although advised tips are sound and safe most of the time but some advised odds range never comes in match to either lay or back.
I am 100% agreed with them but this is because i don't want anyone to lose money because of me.
For example in recent Test match at Galle (England v Sri Lanka,3rd Test) i was very confident that Draw is going to be traded at 1.2x very soon if Sri Lanka bat first (Draw odds was 1.6x in start from memory) also at the same time i was more confident on England price that at 5.5x England odds are good free lay.
But i don't advised to back Draw 1.6x or Lay England 5.5x in start.
Why?
Reason is simple that Sri Lanka can collapse in start and because of this Draw will reach 2.5+ and England around 3.
And if we compare to odds at which we traded first to these odds we can easily imagine our book position.
I believe in safe trading and rarely backs 1.5x or below odds as first trade or lay 5+ odds in all formats of cricket even if Australia is playing at home or any mighty team playing against minnows.
Yes many times i only watch or listen matches without trading but frankly (fingers crossed) because of this strategy i rarely found myself in difficult situation nowdays.
For example any regular visitor at betfair forum knows well that what was the panic set in when in 3rd Test match at Galle Draw and Lanka both traded at 1.3x to 4x on last 3 days.
Click on this link http://site.forum.betfair.com/jive3/betex/ThreadsFrameset.jsp?forumID=62&forumName=Cricket&threadID=1321911&tName=***+Sri+Lanka+v+Eng+Day+5+Official+Thread+***&schatname=null&iMessageCount=1288
...............
I never consider myself a very smart trader but these are the lessons which i learnt from my mistakes/loss in past.
Summary is:
1.Always try to back 1.8+ mainly bowling team as good trading opportunity.
2.Always try to find free lay in 1.5x or below in batting team odds (Draw odds in Test matches is equal to batting team odds if batting team is not favorite at that time). There may be few exceptions some time according to match situation and home/away teams strength but if we follow these 2 points most of the time then chances of big loss will markedly decreased.Always remember that wait for good trading opportunity and patience is the key in any sports trading.

Good luck and once again merry xmas and prosperous new year to all.
Please do post your comments on this strategy.
Bye bye for now :-).

India v Australia,1st Test-Preview & Plan

Hello and very good morning to all,
Two test matches again at same day.
Don't want to involve in this prematch like SA/WI match.
Main points are:
1.Result:Draw ratio at venue is 85:15
2.Weather:Big concern.So far it looks fair but frankly it is difficult for anyone to predict.
3.Teams: No news so far.
4.Pitch: May turn after day two.Good for seamers in start.
..................
Plan(s):
1.Australia
>Lay 1.4x or below if comes as free lay preferably on day one.
>Back 2.2+ for long position.
2.Draw:
>Lay 2.4 or below.
>Back 4+ for long position.
3.India:
Hmmmm.....
>Lay 4.5 or below.
>Back 20+ if Australia bat first and comes in first 10-15 overs for a quick trading opportunity.
These plans are for 1st 2 days.
All the best and MERRY CHRISTMAS!.
.................

Please share your tips/plans and weather forecast for this match.I am waiting for your comments.

P.S:
Added two new link in betting blogs section Hamish's blog and betstories.com
Both are great blogs.

South Africa v West Indies,1st Test:Prematch Free Lay

Hello,
Weather trading ended at last in England v Sri Lanka,3rd Test match today.
Busy with work commitments and christmas & new year plans i decided to stay away from it after 2nd day.
...................
Anyway i think in 1st test between SA/WI current odds are SA 1.42 to back as favourites! is not fair.

Never seen these odds before for a test match except Australia playing at home,so i am laying SA.Even if West Indies bat first and bowled out below 200 SA odds will not shorten below 1.3x and if SA bat first i may consider more lay in 1.5x
Good luck and wishing you all merry christmas.
P.S:
Waiting for your views/plan/comments on this match.

Australia v New Zealand,3rd ODI-Preview & Plan

Hello,
Match will start at 23:00 GMT and my chances of involvement is very less.
If i involve then i will try for inplay post,atleast in 2nd innings.


Preview is small that it is a must win game for both teams.Gilchrist is not playing and M.Clark will open for Australia that means two giants are in team,Hayden and Symonds instead of three ;-).
New Zealand lost there last two matches at this venue.
One with Australia by 105 runs.Batting team first won 14 out of 24 with 1 NR.
Anyway now come to plan.I want Australia to bat first from trading point of view at these odds (1.23)
Why?
Suppose Australia bat first assume Australia odds at innings break at score:
310
290
270
If you think it is not going to less than 1.18 in higher case then either stick to your prematch lay of Australia at 1.22 or plan to lay them in 1.1x whenever comes (prefer early in 1st 15 overs).
If NZ bat first you may choose to bail out prematch lay and then try to lay Australia in 1.16 or below (upto 2 wickets in start after some recovery) and then wait to back 1.2x or 1.3x (try to avoid lay Australia in 1.4+).
Back plan in both cases should start from 1.3x and then with according to situation.Like if you see couple of early wickets when Australia bat first then back some at 1.3x and then wait for 1.4x or 1.5x

...............
2nd innings:
It is difficult to say prematch about it because it depends on score but if you find Australia chasing 250+ then try to find free lay in 1.1x or 1.0x in start specially after 1 or 2 wickets.
If New Zealand chasing 280+ and start well then back Australia 1.5+ in 1st 15 overs and then wait.
My best worked strategy so far with Australia is:
Lay 1k in 1.20
Back 1200@1.30
Book position>160 green Australia and 200 red any other result.Means we backed Australia 200@1.8
Stop loss 2.2
>If odds shorten:
Stop loss 1.15 or 1.16 or according to situation like if Australia batting first then you may let it run some long.
Lastly best plan in this match is to wait for short odds of Australia like 1.08 or below because Australia is too strong and there is no confusion about market mood but still i think short odds lay (Australia) eg. 1.0x pays most of the time if comes early.
Australia lost many matches from 1.0x position in past,infact they are traded at 1.1x in every match which they lost recently from memory.
Good luck to all.

Sri Lanka v England,3rd Test-Day 1 {Inplay}

1st Update,Day 2
Sri Lanka 256/4 in 88 overs.
Odds Draw 1.19,Lanka 7 and England 34
New ball also not helping England which is the best and probably the last chance to come back in the game.
We've seen not much movement in the odds since start of play.
So when odds will move,specially Draw odds?
Answer is simple i think when England come to bat or heavy rain again.In first case upward move is expected and downward in later.
Wait is the only option now.
Good luck.

.................
Update, Day 2
06:50 GMT
Hello and welcome back.I've decided to stick with one post for whole Test match to maintain continuity in updates and comments.

Current score is Lanka 191/4 in 71 overs.
Odds are Draw 1.19,Lanka 7.4 and England 22
So far:
Sri Lanka attitude is negative no doubt.England lacks penetration (Panesar big disappointed).Weather forecast is bad.
Combination of all these is Draw as most likely outcome.
But as a rule i never back 1.2-1.5 when so much time left in the match.
So my plan is to find free lay in Draw around 1.15 today (when new ball taken or England is expected to bat soon) with weather watch.Lay Draw or back Lanka is almost equal at that time.
Good luck.
Waiting for your comments.
................
Hello and welcome to our 3rd test inplay post.


Its 06:15 GMT now.
Match scheduled to begin at 06:30 GMT.
Early news is that England won the toss and elected to bowl first means Lanka batting first.
Odds are
Draw 1.65
Lanka 3.85
England 6.8
Weather is the biggest factor in this match.

Going with Lanka and backed them at 4.2 just before the toss. because my logic was that whoever bat first Lanka price stay for sometime at current price.Reason is if Lanka bat first and lost quick wickets then market think that it is a bad pitch to bat on and generally home team price not drifts in these conditions from this range.
2nd reason is if England bat first Lanka price definately shorten even without wickets in start and after wickets it may shorten upto 3.0
So my first small trade is backing Lanka at 4.2

..............
Other plan for today is:
1.Consider Draw lay in 1.2x as free lay or back 3+ as good trading opportunity if comes with situation at that time.
2.Small Lay England in 4.5x if comes.
Though i don't want to touch England odds much.

3.Lanka back 6+ if comes with situation at that time.

Good luck.
...............
P.S:
Gilchrist is not playing in 3rd ODI (Australia v New Zealand) which is a huge factor in start if Australia bat first.So layed Australia in 1.22 as prematch free lay.
Wish me good luck :-).

Australia v New Zealand,2nd ODI {Inplay}

Hello and welcome back.NZ won the toss and elected to bat first.Rain disturbances expected.
Odds are Aus 1.25 as favourites:
Predicted target odds are:
NZ bat first:
310 1.8x
290 1.7x
270 1.5x
250 1.2x
230 1.1x
210 1.0x
These are Australia odds.Clearly indicates that back Aus 1.5+ but safe plan is back 1.6+ but i think we may not find Aus odds in this range in 1st innings.Other plan is to lay Aus in 1.14 or below if comes early.
Weather forecast is not good so there may be some adjustments according to D/L method.
All the best.

Australia v New Zealand,2nd ODI And South Africa v West Indies,Only Twenty20 Preview

Hello and welcome to our preview of tomorrow's games,

1.Aus/NZ:It is really very good from trading point of view that Australia won both matches easily.Plus point is that NZ also batted well in 1st ODI.
So if Aus bat first and there is flying start lay them in 1.1x in start because upto 310 score odds in innings break is not going to be less then 1.1x
Only danger is 350+ score but i think we may get atleast one chance to bail out in middle overs.
If NZ bat first back Aussies 1.6+ (may consider 1.5+ also) because even at 270 score odds at innings break will be not more than 1.6x Australia.
2nd innings wait for low odds if Australia is chasing in start.Back Aussies if NZ chasing 270+ in 1.7x or more in start.
................
SA/WI T20 plan:
1.Lay any team in 1.3x in first 10 overs (1st innings).
I will try for inplay post in both matches.
All the best.
Please send your plans.Thanks in advance :-).

Australia v New Zealand,1st ODI {Inplay}

1st Update:
NZ 254/7 in 50 overs.
Odds Aus 1.22 as favourites.
Plan is:
1.Back Aus 1.8+ if comes in 1st 10 overs upto 3 wickets.
2.Lay Aus if comes in 1st 5 overs around 1.14 or below as free lay.
3.Lay Aus in 1.1x after 2 wickets in 1st 15 overs.
4.Safest plan:
Wait for Aus odds in 1.0x zone specially after 3 wickets with reqd. runs and runrate at that time.Like 120+ runs at 5+ runrate required.
Lay Aussies after 2 or 3 wickets in low odds is much safer than without wicket and it is really good that market always favours Australia.
Good luck.

...............
Hello and welcome back.Sorry for late post but having some problem in connection.Anyway i hope it is sorted now.
New Zealand won the toss and elected to bat first.
Score is NZ 101/1 in 19 overs.Good start and market predicting score around 280.
Odds are Australia 1.46 as favourites.
Looks like good trading opportunities in 2nd innings when Australia chase.
1st innings small plan is small back at 1.6x before 35 overs then wait and back more in 1.9+ in remaining overs (Australia), because even NZ score 300 runs then odds in innings break is not going to be less than 1.9x NZ.As usual main trading will be in 2nd innings.
All the best.

England v Sri Lanka,2nd Test-Day 5 {Inplay}

Result:Match Drawn
My Draw green reduced 30% in last 2 days in this match but increased more than 40% in India match on 5th day in last so no complaints ;-).
Will post detail P/L of this month early.
Don't forget to join me tomorrow for Australia v New Zealand,1st ODI (03:15 GMT) 'inplay post'.
Till then good bye.
P:S:
Lay Australia (current odds are 1.26) it is prematch free lay.
All the best.
.................
3rd Update:
England 211/3 in 63 overs (48 overs remaining).
Odds Draw 1.05
Draw was 1.01 to lay before Bell wicket.
Waiting for another 1.01>1.05 or 1.02>1.08 shot before Tea because this time Draw may drift 10-12 ticks on 4th wicket.
I think market move on wickets in next 20 overs is something like this:
4th Wicket 10 ticks
5th Wicket 15 ticks
6th Wicket 25 ticks
Although it depends on odds before wicket,England lead,remaining overs and weather forecast etc.What i want to highlight is that after 3 wickets odds moves more than on first 2/3 wickets in these situations.
Anyway again best advise is don't back Draw in short odds.
Good luck.



................
2nd Update,Lunch:
England 152/1 trail by 45 runs and min. 65 overs remaining (depends on weather and bad light)
Odds Draw 1.03
Oops! my Draw green will reduce if odds will not drift in 1.1x zone.Frankly not waiting for miracle but i think it is a matter of only 1 wicket from trading point of view.Yesterday we seen it in India match also.Lets hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.
All the best.
..............
1st Update:
England 107/1 and Odds Draw 1.15
Draw touched 1.07 before Vaughan wicket.
Weather:Latest news is that it is not so bad today and 75 overs are possible atleast.
Plan is to stick with 1.1x lay before lunch.Though i don't trust on these things but from law of averages Bell is due for a low score.
Good luck.
................
Hello and Very good morning to all.
This is going to be cracker.First the best thing to do is to do nothing after tea because market may go volatile at that time or lay short odds 1.1x range of any selection at that time.2nd don't back draw in low odds anytime today,these two may save our big money.
Plan for today is:
1.Wait for 2 wickets atleast then lay draw in 1.2x when comes.
2.No detail forecast on weather till now but i think Draw in 1.1x is going to be free lay till lunch.
I'll update after 1 Hr.
All the best.
Please send weather/pitch report as comments.Thanks in advance.

Test Matches And Australia v New Zealand Twenty20 Plan

Hello and welcome back once again.
In Test matches Draw is favourite.Around 1.4x in England match and 1.1x in India match.

England v Lanka,3rd day:
Draw at 1.4x is a free lay but main thing is how much it will drift on wickets and runs in next 2 hours (ROI) and how much it may shorten in same period if no wickets?
Answer is not easy because it depends on weather forecast also which no one knows precisely.So i want to avoid any new trading today in this match till tea and only level my book when Draw reach in 1.3x zone anytime.
..................

India v Pakistan,4th Day:
Pakistan lost 6th wicket but follow-on is saved.
In this match plan is to trade on 5th day (Pakistan 2nd innings if comes).Although Draw in 1.0x is going to be free lay today.
.................

Australia v New Zealand,Twenty20 match:
Main focus is on this match today.Perhaps because of this match i don't want to involve more in Test matches.
It is a day nighter and start from 9:05 GMT.
Advance plan for 1st innings is:
(A)If Australia bat first:
1.Lay Australia in 1.2x if comes in 1st 10 overs.
2.Lay New Zealand 1.7x if comes in 1st 10 overs.
(B)If New Zealand bat first:
1.Lay Australia in 1.1x if comes in 1st 10 overs.
2.Back Australia 1.9+ if comes in 1st 10 overs.
3.Lay New Zealand 1.7x anytime if comes.
I will try for 'Inplay Post' in innings break.
Good luck.

Test Matches Update And Time - The Great Leveler

Hello,
Another good day.Highlight of the day was Draw lay in low odds and then back in high odds as per plan in both matches.All green book in both test matches although more on Draw.Try to level it tomorrow.


Time - The Great Leveler:
Yesterday benefited by bad umpiring in Lanka v England Test but today because of it missed very good profit in India v Pakistan Test,so conclusion is time is a great leveler.
All the best for tomorrow.

Test Matches Inplay Post,Dec. 10th

Hello and good morning,
Sri Lanka v England,day 2:
Score is 293/7 in 100 overs.
Odds are Lanka 2.24,England 7.8 and Draw 2.14
1.Consider lay Lanka around 2.1x if comes today as free lay.
2.Back Draw 3+ or lay 1.6x if comes anytime.
3.When Lanka comes to bat small back England if comes 12+ in start as quick trading opportunity.
..............
India v Pakistan,3rd day:
Score is Pakistan 149/2 in 47 overs.
Odds are India 2.7,Pakistan 70 and Draw 1.49
1.Lay Draw 1.40 and then in 1.25 before tea if comes.
2.Back Draw 2.5 if comes anytime today.

Weather is a big factor in both matches but still best advise is don't back Draw in low odds.
Good luck.

Test Matches Update And Weather Trading

Hello and welcome back.
Good day overall and if i stick by my original position,it may ended as one of the best days.
Anyway plan worked most of the times today and frankly more due to bad umpiring.
It is really sad that at this level of cricket,level of umpiring is of club level.We have technology,still we don't use it specially in low catches or close LBW.Let's hope for some revolution in future.

Weather Trading:
In both Test matches Draw is favourite due to bad weather forecast.So it is more like of weather trading than cricket trading in these matches otherwise Draw is the least likely outcome in both matches.
Plan for tomorrow is same for 2 Tests and that is to lay Draw in low odds and back at high odds.
For India v Pakistan look for Draw around 1.5x (lay small at 1.55 and lay again at 1.35 if comes then wait) and in England v Sri Lanka match either back Draw 3+ or lay Draw 1.6x if comes.
Waiting for your plan/comments.I will try for inplay post tomorrow.
Good luck.

Test Matches Inplay Post,Sunday 9th December

Hello and very warm welcome to all.
Boxing match finished and Mayweather won it in style.
Test matches started and let's see latest score and odds:
England v Sri Lanka:
England won the toss and elected to bat first.Weather forecast is not good for whole match.
Latest score at lunch is England 97/0 in 29 overs.Odds are England 4.6,Sri Lanka 5.3 and Draw 1.68 as favourites.As per plan layed draw in evens and want to let it run (planning to lay more in 1.65) because i think Draw price will not shorten below 1.65 unless heavy rain starts (although stop loss 1.60 if comes without wicket).

Those not traded so far can consider small back Lanka 5.3 as a good trading opportunity.
Good luck.
................
India v Pakistan,Day 2
It's lunch time there also.Score is India 461/6 and Odds are India 2.38,Pakistan 34 as outsider and Draw 1.77 as favourites.
Plan is to wait for Pakistan batting and then consider lay Draw or India 1.5x (whichever comes first).
All the best.
I will try for inplay updates today.

India v Pakistan,3rd Test-Day 2 And England v Sri Lanka,2nd Test-Day 1 Plan

Hello,
Apologies for lack of updates this week.It is because i was sick last month and after recovery joined duty now.So back to pavilion once again :-).
Anyway here's my plan for Test matches:

(A)India v Pakistan 2nd day plan:
1.Free lay:Wait for India or Draw odds around 1.5x
2.Good trading opportunity:Back India 4+ if comes when Pakistan bat in 1st 20 overs.
Before do anything read weather forecast well for remaining days.
..........

(B)England v Sri Lanka,1st day plan:
1.Free Lay:Wait for Lanka odds around 1.6x if comes (if Lanka bat first it is 1.8x).
Lay Draw around evens if England bat first.
2.Good trading opportunity:
>Lanka bat first:
Back Lanka 3.5+ if comes.
Back England 12+ if comes early after good start (it may go against us as England price drift rapidly if Lanka continue to bat well).

>England bat first:Back Draw 6+ if comes for long run.
Back Lanka 2.5+ if comes anytime after 2 wickets.
Keep an eye on weather forecast.
Good luck to all.

England v Sri Lanka:5th Day Plan

Hello there,
Tomorrow look for:
1.Lanka 2.2+ before lunch to back.
2.Lanka 1.1x before lunch to lay.
3.Draw 1.2x before tea to lay.
4.Draw 7+ after tea to back.
(please add 'if comes' in all)
All the best.

Test Matches:Plans For Tomorrow

England v Sri Lanka 4th Day Plan:
Sri Lanka 2.18!
Another free lay?
I think so,because Draw price will hold Lanka price tomorrow(bad weather prediction in evening) till lunch.Also Lanka only 74 run ahead and they wont declare before score 300 more runs.Lastly they may collapse anytime after one more wicket.
Is England really out of match?
Odds are suggesting (7.0) but i think 1 or 2 quick wickets will cut England price by half (3.5).
For safe trading wait for Lanka price around 1.9 if comes before lunch to lay as free lay.Back England 9+ if comes before lunch as a good trading opportunity.Also keep an eye on weather forecast for remaining days.
All the best.

..............
India v Pakistan,5th Day Plan:
Is Draw at 1.22 is free lay?
Well it depends on how India bat tomorrow in start. Also it depends on declare time.
If India score 100 quick runs in 18-20 overs and give Pakis something like 400 runs target in 70 overs it will be very interesting match.

For safe trading lay Draw if it hits 1.15 tomorrow early morning because if India score fast it may drift upto 1.30 also just after declaration Draw will drift 5-7 ticks.

If Pakistan bat well in start then we may see Draw price free fall,lay draw for small at that time in 1.08.Post lunch lay Draw in 1.0x as free lay specially after 3 wickets.

Good Trading Opportunity:
Back Draw 2.2+ if comes after Tea for quick trade.

Good luck.
I will try for Update on both Test matches tomorrow before lunch.

Test Matches Update

Hello,
Mix day today.Good for Test matches and bad one for one-day.Anyway it is a part of sports trading specially when you are trading on every matches.
Plan for tomorrow test matches is:
(A)India v Pakistan:4th Day Plan
Pakistan require 59 more runs to save follow on with 4 wickets in hand.Odds are Draw 1.56 as favourites.
Million dollar question is will India take follow on option if they bowl out Pakistan below 317?
I think No!
Because India may want to avoid any chase over 180 on last day.Also they are already one up in this series.
So plan is to take Draw above evens if comes after quick wickets early morning.
..............
England v Sri Lanka:3rd Day Plan
Lanka current price 2.0 is a free lay i think.But it will be better to wait and watch Lanka price movement tomorrow morning for atleast 20 overs.
All the best.

South Africa v New Zealand,3rd ODI {Inplay}

2nd Update
SA 59/0 in 9 overs.
Odds SA 1.10
Gibbs on fire.NZ needs wicket badly.Our book position is also not good.Waiting for SA odds around 1.04 as free lay if comes soon.Good luck.
.............
1st Update
NZ 238/50 overs.
Odds SA 1.40
Average score.Wait for SA in 1.2x if comes in 1st 5 overs.Back SA 1.9+ upto 2 wickets.
All the best.


...............
Hello and very warm welcome to 3rd ODI inplay post.
Early news is New Zealand won the toss and bat first.
Predicted target odds is:
New Zealand bat first:
310 1.6x
290 1.8x
270 Evens
250 2.4x
230 3.2x
210 3.8x
190 4.8x
These are New Zealand odds.
So lay NZ 1.7x or below as free lay.Back SA evens or above in 1st 20 overs as good trading opportunity.
Good luck

Late Update

Interesting stage in both Test matches.My plan for tomorrow is:
(A)India v Pakistan,day 3 plan:
1.Wait for India or Draw in 1.4x zone.Obviously Draw lay is more safe than India lay.
2.Consider back India after 3 wickets at 2.1+ when 150 or more runs Pakistan reqd. to avoid follow on as a good trading opportunity.
.................
(B)England v Sri Lanka,day 2 plan:
1.Try to find free lay in England or Lanka odds around 1.5x or low.
2.Back Lanka 3+ if comes before lunch as good trading opportunity.
From experience i can say backing bowling team in these situations at 2.2+ or above after 3 wickets is generally safe.
Why?
1.Bowling team odds drifts very slow in these situations,so we get enough time for stop loss.
2.Even if odds drifts more than predicted in given time only one wicket pull down bowling team odds to original range.It helps to set high stop loss point.
I think i applied too much science in this ;-).
Back to couch and all the best for tomorrow:-).Again copying Big Joe.

England v Sri Lanka,1st Test-Day one {Inplay}

1st Update:
Lanka 142/5 in 42 overs.
Odds Lanka 1.98,England 2.88 and Draw 6.4
Well so far after lunch Draw and Lanka shorten at the cost of England price.Sangkkara escaped a close call in panesar over.Rule says if batsmen is not offering shot than he can be given out LBW.Plan is wait for England around 3.2+ this time as a good trading opportunity.
Free lay:Frankly hard to predict what will be Lanka price at 200/5
Evens or 1.8x ?
Any suggestions?
...............
Hello and welcome back.I will join duty from monday till that plenty of time to trade on cricket;-).Lung infection was really bad :-( but apart from weakness general condition is better:-).Trying to make smileys like Big Joe'.

Sri Lanka won the toss and chose to bat first and score is 86/5 in 25 overs at lunch.Odds are Lanka 2.20,England 2.24 and Draw 8.6
Where is the value?
Wait for England 2.9+ if comes before 40 overs because any wicket at that time will cut England odds by 0.5 or more.So my plan is back England at 3.0 and 3.4 (average 3.2) and let it run for sometime because England price may fridge around 3.4 before tea.Sangkkara and Jayawardene Both looking in great touch and Draw around 8.0 is also good for long run if Lanka bat well after lunch because of weather prediction.It will be great pleasure to watch how Lanka bat after lunch specially when spin bowlers operate from both end.
Good luck.

India v Pakistan,2nd Test-Day 2

Hello and good morning everyone.2 Test matches in sub-continent today.1st look at the India/Pak 2nd Test.Latest at 2nd day score is India 465/4 in 115 overs.Odds are India 1.78,Pakistan 50 and Draw 2.32.
India shorten well below 2.0 today.Infact India price shorten before start of play on day 2.Interesting discussion with Luis yesterday on this when South Africa price shorten at innings break in 2nd ODI.
Layed India on day 1 in start and around evens and below (Average 2.14) and backed at average 2.06.So my book is small red if India win this match.
Plan for remainining match is to wait for India or Draw price around 1.4x to trade.
I will update as soon as odds reach in this zone of any selection.
All the best.

South Africa v New Zealand,2nd ODI {Inplay}

3rd Update
South Africa 209/50 overs.
Odds NZ 1.74
Plan is:
1.Lay NZ in 1.3x if comes in 1st 5 overs after flying start.
2.Back NZ at 2.1+ for quick trade upto first 2 wickets.
3.Lay NZ 1.2x in 1st 15 overs after 2 wicket as free lay.
4.Lay NZ 1.1x after 3 wickets with 100+ runs reqd. anytime.
Basically plan is to wait for some wickets then consider lay batting team in low odds.
Good luck.
................
2nd Update
SA 48/3 in 15 overs.
Odds NZ 1.74
Gates are totally opened.Consider back NZ 2.1+ if comes in next 10 overs as a good trading opportunity.This match looking like a low scoring match so best advise is to wait for 2nd innings for rest of trading unless you see very good trading opportunity as mentioned above or good free lay which will be SA 1.5x or below.
...............
1st Update
SA 18/2 in 6.4 overs.
Odds SA 1.87
Bad start and early filp flop.Because of this i always like short odds team to bat first.
Anyway now situation is tricky,one more wicket and New Zealand become favourites and very difficult recovery for SA.My advise is take profit now.Wait for some recovery then back SA 1.8+ if it looks they may score atleast 230.Lay SA 1.4x if comes before 25 overs as free lay.Good luck to all.

...............
Hello and welcome back.South Africa batting first and predicted target odds is:
SA bat first:
310 1.1x
290 1.2x
270 1.3x
250 1.5x
230 1.9x
210 2.3x
190 2.4x
so back SA 1.9+ or lay 1.3x whenever comes.
Remember it is a day nighter.
All the best.

India v Pakistan,2nd Test,Day 1 {Inplay}

1st Update (Lunch)
India 104/1 in 27 overs.
Odds India 2.04,Pakistan 21 and Draw 2.12
Layed India so far and want to continue it till they bat because i think they are not going to cut below 2.0 before Pakistan come to bat.

.................
Hello and welcome all.India won the toss and elected to bat first.Odds are India 2.22,Pakistan 6.2 and Draw 2.4
Laying India now and planning to lay more at evens or below.
Good luck.

India v Pakistan,2nd Test:1st Day Plan

Hello everyone,
Quick post:Tomorrow look for:
(A)If India bat first:
1.Back India 5+ or lay 2.1x and below.
2.Back Draw 3+ or lay 1.5x and below.
3.Back Pakistan 12+ or lay 2.6x and below.
...............
(B)If Pakistan bat first:
1.Back India 3.5+ or lay 1.6x and below.
2.Back Draw 4+ or lay 1.7x and below.
3.Back Pakistan 20+ or lay 3.5x and below.(whichever comes first basis,try to trade mainly on Draw odds)
May Update at lunch.Please send your plans.

All the best.
P.S:
I will try my best for 'Inplay post' in SA/NZ 2nd ODI Match (12:30 GMT) tomorrow with predicted target odds.

Cricket Trading:Predicting Target Odds (Powerful Tool For 1st Innings Trading)

Hello friends,
Predict target odds is no doubt the most powerful tool for 1st innings trading for one-day and Twenty20 cricket matches(limited overs cricket).Applied it in past also but frankly realized true value after Twenty20 world cup.
How it works:
It works best when team batting first bat well in starting overs and one team is short priced.
For eg. South Africa prematch odds for 2nd ODI with New Zealand is 1.44 as favourites.Suppose SA bat first in this match and start well and score something like 40/0 in 6 overs than there odds will be shorten to 1.26 because market prediction is 280+ score at that time.So these odds are for 280+ score.Now two possibilities are there:
1.They continue to bat well and score 300 around and odds will shorten upto 1.20 without drift.
2.Wickets and slow rate mainly between 10-40 overs and odds drifted to 1.44 during that period when it is looking they are not going to score more than 260 which was the original prediction.
Generally it is seen that run rate drops in middle overs when spin bowlers operating with wickets.So if we lay SA at 1.26 when score was 40/0 in 6 overs chance of loss (if odds shorten which is generally maximum 6 ticks) is very low and chances of profit (if odds drifted) is more.
We can also apply this formula if New Zealand bat first and start well in start and SA odds drifts.
Pitch,ground size,teams strength and market mood are some other important factors for predict target odds.
I agree that it may go sometimes totally against us but it happens rarely and with strict stop loss plan we can minimize loss.
Try it in next match.
All the best.

Cricket Last Week:1.01 & 1.1x Just Escaped

Hello,
Last week 2 'Inplay' short odds selection which was South Africa at both occasions, 1.01(Twenty20) & 1.1x (ODI) against New Zealand anyhow managed to won in last.If we add India also in this list (they was traded at 1.3x on first day in Test against Pakistan and later drifted to 4+ on 3rd day),then we can say all short odds backers was in trouble last week.
The warning from these matches again is 'never back short odds' and there is nothing like free money in sports trading.
So avoid backing short odds in future.
Good luck.

Volatile Market:Best Policy

Hello,
South Africa v New Zealand,1st ODI was a prefect match for free lays and volatile market policy.Not involved in this match and i know it is easy to say as a aftertimer that if i involved in it,traded like this or that and ended with profit.
But in today's post (India v Pakistan,Day 4 plan) if you remember my advise for 'volatile market' which was "if you see volatile market in last either leave it or lay any team in short odds and wait".
Although that was for Test match but i think it applies on all sports trading.
Why?
Market is volatile means short or low odds of any selection is drifting and high odds are shortening repeatedly.In brief frequent flip flops at death.
Still i think best policy is to avoid trade in volatile market but if we want to involve ( because of human tendency) and adopt this policy to lay any short odds and wait will pay us most of the times.Another good thing is chances of big loss is also minimum with it.
Try it next time with small money.
Bye bye
All the best.

India v Pakistan,1st Test-Day 4 At Lunch (Quick Update)

India 3/1 in 4 overs,require another 200 runs.
Odds India 1.27
Plan:
1.Lay India around 1.20 with stop loss 5 ticks if comes just after lunch.
2.Wait for 1 more wicket in next 10 overs then lay India in 1.2x as free lay.
Good luck.

India v Pakistan,1st Test,4th Day Plan

Hello friends,
Quick post.
4th Day look for:
1.India at 1.3x-1.4x when they come to bat for free lay specially after 2 or 3 wickets.Like 150 runs reqd. With 7 wickets in hand.
2.Pakistan 4.5+ just after last wicket.
3.If you see volatile market in last either leave it or lay any team in short odds and wait.
4.Back India when they bat on 1st two wickets for quick trade.
5.Draw future:Any good solid partnership in Pakistan remaining innings will shorten draw again.So it will be risky to lay Draw at high odds,avoid it.

All the best.

India v Pakistan,1st Test-3rd Day (Inplay)

Hello and welcome back.India 276 all out on 3rd day morning,lead by 45 runs.
Odds India 1.8,Pakistan 3.5,Draw 5
Plan is:
1.India odds will stay at 2.0-2.2 if Pakistan bat well in start for next 20-25 overs and cut by 0.5 on any wicket.I think back India at that time and then wait.
2.If Pakistan continue to bat well till tea then Draw will shorten upto 4 and Pakistan and India odds will stay around 2.5.
3.Look for India odds around 1.2x in Pakistan innings if comes after quick wickets.
4.Look for Pakistan odds 7+ and runs/lead at that time.
Good luck

South Africa v New Zealand,Only Twenty20 (Inplay)

3rd Update:
NZ 129 in 20 overs.
Odds SA 1.08
As i mentioned in 2nd update wait for some wickets and then enter like 60/3 in 8 overs and odds are 1.0x
Good luck to all of us.
.................
2nd Update:
NZ 79/5 in 12.4 overs.
Odds SA 1.12
Poor start from NZ best thing to do now is to wait for 2nd innings to watch SA odds in 1.0x at chase after couple of wickets.

...............
1st Update:
SA won the toss and elected to field first.Predict target odds is:
New zealand bat first:
230 2.4x
210 1.9x
190 1.7x
170 1.5x
150 1.2x
130 1.1x
There are SA odds at innings break.
So back SA 1.7+ if comes in 1st 10 overs and 1.8+ anytime.Also lay SA 1.34 or below anytime in 1st innings.
Present odds are 1.39
Thanks Betfairloser for plan.
Wish you all good luck.
...............
Hello and welcome to our T20 match 'Inplay Post'.
Just little bit of homework before start:
1.Venue:where SA chased successfuly 430+ against Aussies in ODI,so you can imagine ground size and pitch.
2.Weather:80% chances of rain.Little matters in T20.
3.Key Players:Martin and Jacob Oram not playing for NZ.
4.Market mood:Without doubt with SA. Prematch odds are 1.43 SA as favourites.I want SA to bat first at these odds.
I will update and post plan for 1st innings after toss and you're invited to post your strategy/plan for this match anytime to help each other.
Good luck.

India v Pakistan,1st Test:2nd Day Plan

Hello friends,
A quick post.
Tomorrow look for:
1.India odds around 1.3x to find free lay.
2.Pakistan odds 12+ for quick trading opportunity.
3.Draw odds 7+ for long position.
4.India odds 1.9+ with stop loss 20 ticks for long run.
Lets see which one comes first.
All the best.
P.S:
There will be SA/NZ T20 match tomorrow from 15:00 GMT and i will try my best for inplay post.
Please post your plans for Test & T20 match.

Green Effect:Maximize Your Profit

Last Week P/L +£764.1
Monthly P/L +£1118.9
Traded on 3 matches last week:
1.India v Pakistan,5th ODI +£460.7
2.Australia v Sri Lanka 2nd Test +£74.8
3.South Africa v Newzealand,2nd Test +£228.5
Hello friends.
First same boring thing again which is to post P/L but because Mark Everson advised it to post it regular on weekly/monthly basis,so that those who wants to follow plans in this blog feel more comfortable.Fully agree with Mark advise thus posting it again today although always feels boring specially when most of my trading is live or inplay.
Due to my illness from last 10-12 days.I'm restricted to home which means full time for trading but for selected period as i feel exhausted after little work.
I prepared this post also in many parts before posting in bed on my Nokia mobile.
Traded on 2 Test matches and 1 ODI,not posting in detail of every match trading (seperate inplay posts are there for every match).
Only highlight some changes i applied in these matches mainly towards end after seen a post in betfairtrader blog (frankly understand it very late) or i can say copying some of his style.
I named it 'Green effect' by this we can increase our profits if our book allows mainly towards end.
For example my book was all green in 5th ODI most of the time and when it was clear that Pakistan is in strong position to win this match after 4 and 5 wickets i backed Pakistan from my India green at 1.5x and some extra at 1.3x respectively and set stop loss point.There was two reasons to do this at that time:
1.I backed these odds and on both occasions chances of drift is less and slow means i've taken a value (considering req runs,run rate & wickets at that time)
2.My book is now moderate green Pakistan and small red India so stop loss and bail out points are much higher which is overall safe book.
Thanks once again to BFT.This strategy shown increase in profit (tried on test matches also) and may be continue to try it on 1.2x-1.5x range odds this month,if i think there is value and my book allowing but mainly on bowling team odds towards end because it will be risky for batting team odds which drifts dramatically on wickets.
I know it is risky and chances of big loss anytime but for this i'm going to set stake size for these odds towards end.
And lastly copy a master is easy but to be a master is difficult :-).
All the best.
P.S:
It looks same 2 posts one rough and other full proof posted at same time due to some technical problem.Removed rough post now and sorry for that error.
;-)

Australia v Sri Lanka,2nd Test,5th day plans

Hello,
Any result is possible in this test now and 5th or final day is going to be very exciting.Lanka need 260 runs to win from 98 overs (if no weather interruption) and they have 7 wickets in hand obviously Australia reqd. 7 wickets to win.
Weather:It is going to be big factor tomorrow.So far news is occasional showers in the afternoon and chance of rain is 40% from yahoo weather site.
Current odds are Australia 1.41,Sri Lanka 9.8 and Draw 5.1
Without weather factor it is easy to say that back Australia 1.7+ if comes before lunch as good trading opportunity and wait for Draw or Lanka odds in low zone to find free lay.
Chances of Lanka win is least which is also reflecting in odds even if no weather interruption because they need reqd. runs at 2.7/over and Australia can bowl negative line if they sense it also batting on 5th day in Test match is always difficult but cricket is a game of great uncertainty and anything can happen. So what is the safest plan for tomorrow?
I think back Australia 1.8+ before lunch if comes with stop loss 30 ticks because any wicket before lunch will cut Australia odds by 0.5 in this situation and once Australia odds reach at 1.8+ it will stay long and Draw and Lanka Price will change more.Another interesting point is new ball is due in 11 overs try to take advantage on it.
Free lay may be Lanka odds in 1.6x zone if comes and Draw odds in 1.3x zone after lunch.Keep an eye on weather all the time after lunch.I will try for inplay post as early as possible.
All the best.

India v Pakistan,5th ODI {Inplay}

2nd Update (innings break)
Pakistan 306/6 in 50 overs.
Odds Pak 1.74
Good 1st innings trading for us and great recovery from Pakistan after 3 quick wickets.
It is a high chase and day night game so we may find some good free lays if India bat well.Pitch is looking easy for batting but chase 300+ is always a tough task.
Plans for 2nd inning are:
1.Back Pakistan 2.4+ if comes in first 10 overs as good trading opportunity.
2.Wait for both team odds (specially batting team) in 1.3x zone with req. runs,run rates and wickets at that time to find free lay.
I'm feeling tired so there may be no update after this.
All the best.
.................
1st Update:
Pakistan 169/3 in 33 overs.
Odds India 1.98
Our 1st 20 overs plan gone well and i hope everyone book is all green.
Pakistan batting well presently.Now for rest of the 1st innings plan is to wait for Pak odds in 1.7x or below to lay because i think even if Pakistan post 300 than Pak odds at innings break is not going to be less than 1.70 considering Indian batting strength.
Good luck.


................
Hello and welcome to our 5th ODI Inplay.It is a dead rubber so be careful.
Pakistan batting first in this day nighter.Odds are India 1.73 as favourites.Market predicting Pakistan score around 260.
Both team rested some key players.
1st inning small plan is to back India at evens if comes in 1st 20 overs with stop loss plan 20 ticks.For free lay wait Pakistan odds in 1.5x-1.6x zone anytime which i doubt will come.

All the best.

Cricket Trading:Different Lay/Back Plans

Hello,
This post is about different lay/back plans in different situations,which i think is the most important part of cricket trading after we find a good free lay.
Most important factors are:
1.Stake size
2.Market mood & behaviour
3.No. Of wickets & Required runs and runrate
4.High chase or low chase
5.Format of the game
6.Lay price & Current price
7.Volatile market or not
8.Pitch type
9.Remaining overs/time in match
10.Book position
11.Whether layed bowling team or batting team
12.Weather
I will take each factor one by one tomorrow.Please post your comments/suggestions.
All the best.

Test Matches Update

Update,14:00 GMT
South Africa v New Zealand,2nd Test
(day-2,post tea)

SA 263/3 63 ov. Lead by 75 runs.
Odds SA 1.20
SA odds may short by 1 tick on every 10 runs from now on even wickets fall in between.
.................
Hello everyone,
Tough days for me. Suffering from acute respiratory tract Infection and Pleurisy which is causing painful breathing.Also having continues internet connection problem.Hoping everything will be settled soon.
Somehow managed for update post on test matches.
Test Matches:
Aus/Lanka and SA/NZ 2nd Test matches,i advised prematch to lay both (Australia in 1.47 and South Africa in 1.61) which i think going well so far.Now further plan for both test matches:
1.Aus/Lanka>Australia declared at 542/5 and Lanka at stumps are 30 without loss.Current odds are Aus 1.72,Draw 2.48 and Lanka 44.
Sri lanka need 312 more runs to avoid follow on.We have 2 options now either to trade on Aus odds or Draw odds.Australia may go defensive tomorrow if Sri Lanka bat well if only one wicket before lunch tomorrow because it is only 2 match series and they have already won 1st test and leading series by 1-0.
Pitch is looking good for batting.
Current plan is to take all green position now like if layed at 1.4x back 80% at 1.7x
2nd Day plan:
(A)Wait for either Australia or Draw odds in 1.3x range then trade with lay and back plan 1.3-1.6 (80%) with stop loss plan 5-7 ticks.
(B)Wait for Australia Odds 2.1+ if comes then back and lay plan on wicket fall 2.1-1.7 before lunch.
overall i think once draw will reach at 1.25-1.35 it will stay there for long and consider that as free lay.Weather is also a big factor in this match so keep an eye on weather sites.
2.SA/NZ>SA odds drifted to 1.6x to 2.3x yesterday.hope everyone taken all green position yesterday.
Current score is SA batting at 128/2 (36 ov) trail by 60 runs(NZ 1st innings 188) and odds are SA 1.25,Draw 6.2 and NZ 18.
Next 2 hour is going to decisive in this test match.If SA managed to score 100 more runs in these 2 hours with only 1 or 2 wickets then their price may shorten to 1.1x and draw will drift.Plan is to wait for SA odds in 1.1x zone and small lay at that time for 1 hour or 4 ticks stop loss.But if no wicket than wait for 1.0x odds on day third.
Well you may think why i'm not considering to back SA at 1.2x now or later with stop loss 4 ticks.The reason is simple that cricket is a funny game and anything can happen anytime like South Africa may collapse in 60-70 runs.
All the best.

4th ODI Review

This is South Africa price change today so far on day one of 2nd Test Match.(2 pm G.M.T)
(Upto Score:New Zealand 187/8 in 56.0 ov)
(From odds.bestbetting.com)
Current odds are SA 1.38


Hello and welcome back.
Sorry for no inplay post today.As I'm having some difficulty in Internet connection.
Trading on SA/NZ match and planning to lay again at 1.3x

Posting below my P/L and 4th ODI review.
Yesterday P/L £122.6
Monthly P/L £354.8

Traded 2 ODI's and 2 Test matches this month so far.In Test matches i closed my position on day 1 due to reasons which i mentioned before very early with 14.5 profit in Australia v Sri Lanka 1st test and 30.6 green any result on SA/NZ test.
Traded fully on 1st and 4th ODI between Pakistan and India.
4th ODI 1st inning was boring from trading point of view.All you can do is to back India at evens and let it run but it was risky from my point of view because it was a day/night match and Afridi and Kamran Akmal coming in lower order there was chances of 280+ score.
Anyway i traded in 2nd innings lay India in 1.4x and backed all with top-up at 1.6x in 1st 10 overs.In 11-20 overs again layed India at 1.4x with my India green but Tendulkar was in great touch and i stop loss for this trade at 10 ticks and waited for some wickets for further trade.After 3rd wicket i was planning to lay India at 1.1x but before i could do anything Tendulkar got out.
Now India odds again drifted to 1.3x but i dislike backing batting team in low odds.Finally i layed India at 1.12 to make my book green on any result.
Good Luck.

Australia v Sri Lanka & South Africa v New Zealand,Test Matches Prematch Homework

Hello,
Laying Australia at 1.47 and South Africa at 1.61 because i think these are short odds from test match point of view on day one(if both bat first like first test,i will let it run but if they don't than 10 ticks stop loss and then wait for 1.3x to lay).
Weather:Chances of rain is there in both matches.
Key players:Shane bond is not playing due to injury.

I will try for inplay post in both matches but chances are more in SA/NZ match.
Good luck.

India v Pakistan,4th ODI {Inplay}

3rd Update
India 105/2 in 20 overs
Odds India 1.34
Well my stop loss is 10 ticks.I layed at 1.44 and backed at 1.34
Now wickets are crucial at this stage.No wicket and India odds will be in 1.1x zone.Plan now is to wait for India in these odds with wickets and runrate at that time.
...................
2nd Update
India 58/2 in 10 overs.
Odds India 1.6
Our plan for 1st 10 overs gone well.
Plan is same again for next 10 overs like wait India to lay 1.4x because at this stage one more wicket means flip flop.

..................
1st Update (Innings break)
Pakistan 255/50 overs.
Odds India 1.70
Not a bad score to defend.Plan is to wait for India in 1.4x to lay if comes in 1st 10 overs.Another plan is to back India 2.2+ if comes after early wicket for quick trade.All the best.

...............
Hello and welcome to our 4th ODI inplay post.It is a day/night match.
Pakistan won the toss and elected to bat first.Plan for 1st inning by predict target odds is:
Pakistan bat first
310 1.4x
290 1.6x
270 1.8x
250 2.4x
230 3.6x
210 4.8x
190 5.6x
These are Pakistan odds.So lay Pakistan 1.6x or below if comes in first 15 overs and lay 1.5x or below anytime.As always main trading will be in 2nd inning. Unless very good trading opportunity or free lay in 1st innings.
Good luck

India v Pakistan,4th ODI Prematch Homework

Hello friends,
Before going into this match i want to say that 3rd ODI was ideal for our strategy/basics(i know it is easy to say after seeing result but i will try to explain it in detail in this post).There was no inplay post or trading from my side.But my friend saved historic odds from odds.bestbetting.com site and after seeing that i can say that was a perfect match for trading for us.
How?
India batted first and post 294 and won that match by 46 runs.
India odds in 1st inning starting overs (15 overs) shorten upto 1.5x those who are regular here knows well that our main plan for 1st innings at this time by predict target odds is to lay batting team in these odds because market mood at that time is they will score 300 atleast.Yes India scored near about that (294) but there odds drifted to 2.2+ in middle because of wickets.Even if India scored 325 and that too swiftly i don't think India odds in innings break is going to be less than 1.4x because
(1)Pakistan chased 320+ in last game successfully.
(2)Market always thinks that it is a good pitch to bat on and other team can also score 320+
So it was a good free lay in which chance of downward move was 10-15 ticks maximum but upward move was much higher.
Please stay for more important point at this time:
If India scored 350+ or there odds shorten to 1.2x without any drift?
Here comes the advance lay/back plan which i insists many time.
Like if we layed India at 1.58 that time than back plan if odds shorten was 1.42 which is also stop loss or exit point.
This was the 1st innings highlight of that match.
Now take 2nd inning:
Pakistan started chase well and scored 70 quick runs in nearly 7 overs.India odds drifted to 2.2+ this time and those who are regular here also knows that our 2nd innings plan in high chase is back bowling team at 2.0+ if comes in 10 overs due to flying start.Again question arise here is if Pakistan continue to bat well and India odds starting to drift more than what to do?
Answer is again that advance lay/back plan or stop loss and then wait for batting team in low odds to find free lay with required runs,run rate and wickets at that time (fingers crossed which pays us most of the times or infact our main strategy in high chase or low chase matches and only difference is that in low chase we may find batting team in short odds very early than high chase).
4th ODI homework and plan:
Well what i typed so far in more than half hour (my speed is really very slow) is again going to be plan for this match with slight change because it is a day/night match(I will try my best for inplay post tomorrow).
Like try to find free lay in batting team in 1.5x lower range or below (1.6x for Pakistan) in starting overs (15) in first inning and in 2nd inning wait for chase team in low odds and if it is a high chase then consider backing bowling team 1.9+ if comes in first 10 overs as a good trading opportunity.

Trading plans seldom changes in one-days only odds range changes with teams,venue,pitch and day/night effect like if Australia and India playing in which Australia odds are mostly in 1.5x or 1.6x zone in start than plan to lay Australia if they bat first range drops to 1.4x or 1.3x after good start.
Good luck.
P.S:
My main strategy in cricket trading is based on laying batting team mostly which is obviously backing bowling team in certain situations but recently i worked on 'can we find good free lay in bowling team odds also' and if yes then in which situation.This i will try to explain in next post.

Stop Gambling And Start Trading

Hello there,
There is a huge difference between gambling and trading and i think everyone knows it well.
Anyone can win 7/10 times in any sport in which he/she has some knowledge.
But the main thing ' Is 7 win profit is more than 3 losses everytime?'
I'm afraid not most of times.So why this happens:
1.Refusal to take all green position most of the times because we think game is over.
2.Refusal to take stop loss point or bail out position(exit point) and let the loss trade run and than wait for miracle.
3.Ego problem like i am not going to be on losing side and starts chasing at short odds.
4.Backing short odds.
I will take first point in detail(refusal of all green position) with example of cricket matches but i thing it applies in every sports trading.

1.One-day:In 3rd ODI which played recently (11th November) between India and Pakistan (although i not traded on that match but my friend saved historic odds from odds.bestbetting.com site)
India batted first and post 294.Pakistan began there chase well but India won in last.

Assume anyone book is 400 green on India and 1000 red on Pakistan when India odds are 1.07 means 1.08 to lay after 4 wickets in 2nd innings.At this point
the sensible thing is to lay India for 1000 at least to make book 320 green on India and 0 or no liability on Pakistan and then wait for 1.04 or less to further lay India to make equal green on any result.But what we do mostly is refuse to lay at these time and think game is over and lay this time is waste of money.
What actually happened is there was good 5th wicket partnership and India odds drifted to 1.3x zone again.At this time one who refuge to lay in 1.0x started worrying even if he knows India still is in driver seat but he has liability on Pakistan.
But other one who layed India at 1.0x means his book is 320 green India and no liability on Pakistan can wait or even think to back 1000 on India at 1.35 and his book become 670 green India and 1000 red Pakistan which gives him much safer position because he has backed India at 1.67 virtually for 1000 which is strong favourite at that time.
2.Take another example:
Australia in every match at 1.5x or above is safe gambling but refuse to lay them in 1.0x after backing at higher odds is surely pure gambling or stupidity(which i also do).
For example recently played 1st Test between Australia and Sri Lanka (traded on this match and other test only at day 1 and odds for this match roughly taken from betfair cricket forum).
Australia batted first and post huge score in 1st innings.There odds from start (1.5x) hardly drifted and after follow on and couple of wickets in Lanka 2nd inning reached to 1.0x zone on 3rd day but Australia odds drifted to 1.4x on 4th day because of weather threat and one good partnership in Sri Lanka 2nd innings.Now again one who refused to lay Australia at 1.0x when his book was good green on Australia found himself in difficult condition.
There are many examples like BFT highlighted in recent post that someone has backed Pakistan at 2.3x for 12k in 5th ODI with South Africa.Pakistan lost that match from 1.01 position and that person didn't layed Pak at 1.0x.
Although once any selection reached in short odds specially in 1.0x zone they hardly beaten in sports but if there is major drift or flip flop then one who had chance of all green position but refuse to take may find himself in difficult situation and may end with no profit or loss.
Take Ray (sports trader) example that how he is making consistent profit but with trading and not by gambling.

Other 3 points are equally important like prepare for loss in any event and try to minimize it by early stop loss or exit.Lastly never back short odds in sports you can earn most of the time but one loss may wipe all earnings.
Happy trading and good luck.
P.S:
I taken 2 matches as example in which team who won reached to 1.0x odds but it doesn't mean we always wait for all green position at these odds.It may be different according to our book and match situation.Like if book is +2k and -1k if team 'A' win and their odds are 1.20 to lay then try to make it atleast +1700 and +500 by laying 1.5k at 1.20 for all green book.

We Love Our Family

Hello and welcome back,
My daughter is doing fine now.She's almost recovered from gastroenteritis and fever.Main causative organisms in children are generally viruses in which no specific drugs (antimicrobials) required or available and only symptomatic treatment like fluid management,probiotic and antipyretic drugs needed.But sometimes when body immune system becomes weak and because of this opportunistic micro organisms like bacteria grows in body which causes fever and additional problem.
This micro organisms causes infectious disease all over the world and sadly they are becoming strong day by day (drug resistant) and because of that almost every month a new antibiotic is launched.Reason for drug resistant is rational use of antibiotics and not taking proper course of these drugs.So my advise is always take full course of drugs and never take them without expert medical practitioner advise.

We see many times specially in elderly patients when they admitted in hospitals for heart,kidney,lungs,brain or G.I.T problems,there main problem treated well but nosocomial infection (hospital aquired infections) or post operative infections causes much problem in long run.I hope one day medical science will take control of these problems.
Whenever i read other blogs i found in all that how much everyone cares and love their family whether it is Mark Iverson,Gambler,Sports trader and BFT.Some are having problems like Mark Iverson child who is yet to be born is having congenital heart disease,Gambler mother also having some problem.Best wishes to them and there family.
Life is never easy but it goes on and we should try our best to tackle ups and down.
In last i want to say we all love our family so always try hard to make them happy.Perhaps we are here (sports trading) because of them so always try safe and selective trading.
Wishing you and your family all the best.

P.S:I will start cricket trading from 4th one-day between India and Pakistan and there will be inplay post for that match.

A Good Read

Hello everyone.Trading free days for me till daughter recovers fully.
Nowdays reading old articles for review in free time and from them i think this is one of the best to learn cricket trading basics http://www.totalgambler.com/tips/latesttips/1911/how_to_trade_a_cricket_match.html
Good luck.

Another Quick Update

Hello friends.I'm feeling some relaxed as my daughter is improving.Although not trading today because i think do it only when other important work done.
Just checked the scorecard of the 1st Test match between South Africa and New Zealand and found South Africa batting again and score is 3/0 leading by 111 runs and odds are 1.18
I think SA in 1.19 is a excellent free lay(will not cut below 1.15 till SA bat) because lead is not big and they may collapse and lastly they will not declare before 350 lead.
So it will be atleast 80 over free lay.
I'm in hurry so please make your lay/back plan according to situation.

Good luck

A Quick Update

Hello friends and sorry for no inplay post today because my 3 year old daughter is suffering from acute gastroenteritis and fever.
Wish you all good luck.

Tomorrow's Test Matches And ODI Prematch Homework

Hello and welcome once again for our prematch homework for tomorrow matches.Three matches,2 Test and 1 one-day which are:
1.Australia v Sri Lanka 1st Test at 0:00 GMT
2.South Africa v New Zealand 1st Test at 8:30 GMT
3.Pakistan v India 2nd ODI at 09:00 GMT
Well too much international cricket and it will be really difficult to manage them all.
I will trade mainly in one-day match tomorrow.But for 2 Test I'm laying or layed for small Australia and South Africa because i think there prices are short from Test match point of view on 1st day and if they bat first i will let it run.
Plan for India/Pakistan ODI is:
It is a day/night match at Mohali,India which is a average score (240-250) ground.But the interesting thing is team batting first won mostly even at average score means chasing at this ground is difficult.
Market mood is again with india so if India bat first and having good start there odds may shorten to 1.6x or below early so lay them as free lay if it comes in 1st 10 overs.
If Pakistan bat first try to find free lay in 1.8x Pak odds in start.
As always since it is a day/night there may be very good trading opportunity or free lays in 2nd inning specially in batting team low odds we may find (chase won't be easy) so we will do most of the trading in 2nd inning.
Good luck.
P.S:
I will try for Inplay post tomorrow as early as possible in which main plan for one-day match but also cover 2 Test matches running and try to find and tell you as soon as i think any good free lay or trading opportunity in them.And if you find any good opportunity than please post it.

Cricket Trading:When To Lay?

1st ODI (India/Pak) P/L +£186.9
Monthly P/L +£186.9
Hello and good evening,
1st ODI was boring but managed to green on any result 120 in 1st inning and 60 odd in 2nd inning.Today I'm asking you two different questions in which i think the cricket trading basics/strategy hidden.
The questions are:
(Assuming both teams are almost equal and playing one-day match).
1.Team 'A' batting first and score 50/3 in 15 overs and odds are 1.3x of team 'B' (bowling team) as favourites.Same team at score 80/3 in 25 overs and odds are same eg. 1.3x of team 'B'.
So my question is when to lay team 'B' in 1.3x (bowling team).

2.Second question is Team 'A' bat first and scored 277/8 in 50 overs.Team 'B' is chasing and score is 148/2 in 30 overs and odds are 1.3x of team 'B' as favourites.Same team at score 178/3 in 35 overs and odds are 1.3x
So again question is which one is better lay of team 'B' who is batting team in this case in 1.3x.
I will post my answers with reasons to these questions in next post.
Waiting for your answer/comment.
Good luck!

India v Pakistan,1st ODI {Inplay}

1st Update
India 150/3 in 29 overs.Needs 90 to win from 126 balls.
Odds India 1.15
Well required run rate is under reach.So wait for 1 more wicket or run a ball situation if comes (6/over) and than consider lay India in 1.1x as free lay.
Good luck
................
Hello and welcome back.It is innings break now.1st inning plan i posted yesterday.Now the situation is:
Pakistan won the toss and elected to bat first.They made 239/7 in 50 overs.
Odds are India 1.60
Plan is to wait for India odds in 1.3x zone specially after 2-3 wickets if comes with consideration of run rate at that time to find free lay.Another plan is to back India at 1.9+ after fall of 1st and 2nd wicket for quick trades.Overall it is a good score on this pitch and if early wickets than it will be a interesting chase.
All the best.

India v Pakistan,1st ODI,Prematch Homework

Hello and welcome to our 1st prematch homework of this month.It is also the 1st match of 5 one-day matches series between India and Pakistan in India.
So we don't have any data for this series so far about teams performance.But from recent performance of both teams we can say it is difficult to pick any favourite.Odds for 1st ODI is 1.81 India as favourites.
It is still not clear that whether i will involve from start or not because it is too early but if i will involve than my plan is:
1.Mood of the market is to go with India so if india bat first try to find free lay in India odds at 1.6x or below if comes anytime in 1st 15 overs after good start.
2.Key players:Sehwag is not playing which i think is a setback for India.Shoaib Akhtar is back which is a huge bonus for Pakistan.
3.Venue/pitch:Match will be played at Guwahati where India played 6 matches,won 3 and lost 3.
Ground records is that it is not a big score ground and 240-250 may be a good score to defend.But the most important factor is morning due which will help seamers in start as it is not a day/night match.
4.Weather:It is fine.
Overall conclusion is lay India now (if you are going to trade from start) and than wait for toss and if India bat first because of Sehwag and Akhtar factor plus morning due effect let it run.India may be traded at evens in start.
If Pakistan bat first back India (prematch lay plus 20% extra) and than wait.Lastly if Afridi opens and some fireworks than lay Pakistan in 1.6x-1.7x if comes in 1st 15 overs.In short back bowling team in 2.2+ in 1st inning starting overs.My view is that Pakistan bowling is better than India.As always i will wait for 2nd inning for most of the trading unless good free lay or trading opportunity in 1st inning.
Good luck.

Entertainment Tax......Tuition Fees.....Paid?....Or.....Paying!

Hello and good morning all,
This post i wanted to post long time back after reading a post in Richard Wildman blog 'Bet Trading:100 to 100000' in which he mentioned initial or early trade losses in sports trading as tuition fees.
I added some more in it which i think comes first is 'Entertainment Tax' which most of us pays in start.
Well what it is all about let me explain first how i started sports trading almost 2 years back.One of my close friend trade on cricket matches regularly and although i knew it but never attempted.One day i was at his home watching India v Pakistan ODI live and he was trading on that match.Pakistan was chasing something 240+ score and 7 wickets down and 100 more runs was required at 6/over (from my memory).Injamam was still playing but only tailenders left to bat with him.As i understand cricket since my childhood i was confident that chances of India win is far better than Pakistan.I asked my friend that match is almost over and what you have done so far.He told me that he is nearly +500 on India and +100 on Pakistan and going to back some more on India at 1.22 at that time.Then suddenly he asked me 'do yo want any bet?' and if yes than on which team.I said no but i think India will win comprehensively from here.Than he said will he back some more money on India at 1.2x on my behalf from his account and we will be settled it after match.I thought for a second and than i said o.k put 1k on India for me.India won that match easily and my friend gave me 200 from his pocket just after match and said it is deposited in his account and he will withdraw it from there.
After that day i tried it again with my friend in same manner for 2-3 times and fortunately all ended in profit(nearly 1k).
At this point i was thinking that it is very easy money to earn and gradually started at my own.Before the start of match i become excited and starts trading on every market in cricket after start(session runs/total score etc.)
without plan.At this time i was enjoying it more although slowly money was slipping from my hand.But i was not concerned about it more because the loss was small and i was really enjoying it.My trade results at that time was like profit in three and lost all plus some more in one.
Than come that 'Test Match' which i mentioned before in which i lost huge money by backing draw in short odds only to chase.Weather was the crucial factor in that match but more important was mixing of alcohol,chase,greed so overall that was my fault.
So it is all my story and after that huge setback i quit trading for months and only watched cricket matches and odds movements without trading.Read many articles on trading/gambling on internet and the final conclusion was that 'no one can ever earn in that.'
Next is how i started it again.Watched many matches without trading i realized that where the good opportunity is and in which matches and in those matches what is the time to enter or exit and in short where i was wrong.But even at this time i was not thinking to re enter in it.
One day when i was surfing on net i got link of BFT blog that is http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com after reading it and some other blogs which linked there i realized money can be earn in sports trading but only by strict discipline and money management.I started it again by small money and after some time i decided to start my own blog.
This is all my story.Coming to the title of post which is Entertainment Tax......Tuition Fees.....Paid?....Or.....Paying!
I think in start when i was enjoying it with small losses that was 'Entertainment Tax' and the losses after that was 'Tuition Fees' unfortunatly that was big for me.
My main purpose for this post is that nearly all goes through this phase and mostly left it after that and my sincere advise is if you are going through this phase please rethink that is it suits you?If not than quit it for some time and try to only start it again with the sport which you feel comfortable after research and with strict discipline and money management.Don't try to chase money which you lost,try to recover it in part by small wins.It may take months but it is the only way you can get your money back.If you are doing well means tax and fees paid than all the best for future.
Many thanks to BFT again and i highly recommend all to read his great blog.
Good luck and best wishes.

Best Odds Comparison Site With Historic Odds Facility

Hello and welcome again,
We should try to keep sports trading as simple as possible by stick to our basics but odds comparison sites are essential in sports trading either inplay or prematch to know mood of the market on any event and i think the best site for this is http://odds.bestbetting.com
It not only cover odds from different bookmakers like others but also shows historic odds of any event.Know historic odds of any event during inplay is very useful to learn market behaviour in any sport on certain situations like goal in football or wicket in cricket.
So by odds comparison we can asses market mood and by historic odds we can learn market behaviour.Try this site by click on this link http://odds.bestbetting.com/cricket/odi-series/india-v-pakistan/1st-odi/india-v-pakistan/match-result-(draw-no-bet)/historic-odds to see historic odds of 1st ODI between India and Pakistan during inplay (5th Nov.) or prematch.
Best of luck.

A Quick Update:Australia v Sri Lanka 1st Test match

Just checked the odds for 1st Test.Australia 1.49 to back and 1.50 to lay!
After checking ground results,weather,team forms etc.Lay Aus in 1.5 with back plan at 1.38 in worst case and 1.7x in higher case on 1st day and if Australia bat first let it run or consider more lay in 1.3x-1.4x after good start.
Good luck.

Upcoming International Cricket Series And Matches:November,2007

Hello and welcome back.It is November now in which 3 International series will be played which are:
1.Pakistan v India:5 ODI and 3 Test matches in India from 5th Nov.
2.New Zealand v South Africa:3 ODI,1 Twenty20 and 2 Test matches in SA from 8th Nov.
3.Sri Lanka v Australia:2 Test matches in Australia from 8th Nov.
For details click here http://in.sports.yahoo.com/sportz/cricket-schedules.html or http://content-www.cricinfo.com/ci/content/current/match/fixtures/live.html here.
So no match till 5th and i will try to post plans for these matches in advance.Trading free days for me but if you have any than good luck and all the best.

Cricket Trading:Facts

Hello everyone,
Good days because no international cricket around these days means beer,food and normal work.This is the last day of this month in which we seen international cricket all in sub-continent.Home sides (asian teams) Sri Lanka,India and Pakistan lost series to their opponents.Although only Pakistan played test series also.Sri Lanka v England one-day series result was not anticipated by many.
Anyway lets come to cricket trading facts which remained intact in all series are:
One day's>Market mood was to go with Australia,Lanka and Africa with their opponents which was India,England and Pakistan respectively and in those one-day's whenever these favourite teams comes to bat first there was very good free lay and trading opportunities mainly after good start or flying start.Don't know each match detail but from my memory Australia traded at 1.4x or 1.5x after good start (first ten overs) in atleast three matches and in middle of the innings (15 to 35 overs) they drifted to 2.5+
in all or two matches.Fact remains is that whenever short odds team bat first and having good start lay them in 1.3x-1.5x zone and then sit relax because these odds generally not shorten further.This is basic of my 1st innings trade which i called as 'Predict Target Odds' so always wait for these situations.For 2nd innings trade once again there was good free lays and trading opportunities when batting team odds reached to low zone specially in high or low score chase in day/night matches.Basically the biggest fact in cricket trading is that always try to find opportunity to oppose batting team in low odds which is obviously backing bowling team at value and than book profit in parts.Lay/back plan may be different according to situation but try to make them in advance in these situations like if it is only 1st or 2nd wicket is gone than back all on batting team and may consider some top-up for eg. lay in 1.2x then back all plus some more (20%) on 1.4x after initial couple of wickets.

Another big fact is never back batting team in short odds.In this you may earn in 80% but loss in 20% will be so heavy that it may be more than the profit in 80% matches.
Good bye for now.In next post i will take Test Cricket Trading facts.
All the best.

Follow Us,Guide Us And Together We Will Beat Bookies

5th ODI P/L +£1474.8
Monthly P/L +£2904.9
Wow what a result.Not in condition to tell more but only one thing never back short odds of batting team only lay them.You may loss in 50% but cover it all in only one match.
Bye for now tomorrow i will tell you some interesting facts about cricket trading in new post.
Thanks for regular visit.

Pakistan v South Africa,5th ODI {Inplay}

4th ODI P/L -£70.4
Monthly P/L +£1430
Hello and welcome back.Ooh loss in 4th ODI for us but as our main strategy is to lay batting team in low odds works mostly I'm not too worried.
Today is 5th ODI and series score is 2-2 so it may be a cracker.
SA won the toss and elected to bat first.Score is now 21/1 in 4 overs.Odds are Pakistan 1.77 as favourites.My first inning plan by 'predict target odds' is:
SA bat first:
310 1.3x
290 1.4x
270 1.5x
250 1.7x
230 2.2x
210 2.8x
These are SA odds.Pitch is not looking 300+ so lay SA in 1.5x if comes anytime in 1st 35 overs.
Good luck

South Africa v Pakistan,4th ODI {Inplay}

South Africa 86/1 in 14 overs.
Odds SA 1.10
'Is it free lay of the month'.
................
2nd Update
Pakistan 230/9 50 overs.
Odds SA 1.49
Plan is to wait and see SA odds in 1.2x zone when comes and run rate and wickets at that time.But if it comes in 1st 5 overs due to good start lay it.Good trading opportunity will be to back SA 1.8+ if comes early after any wicket for a quick trade because target is not much more.
Good luck
...............
1st Update
Pak 65/3 19 overs.
Odds 1.47>SA
Bad start for Pakistan.This is the crucial stage of the match.

Main plan is to wait for 2nd inning as always because it is looking a low score match and i always like to see batting team in short odds in 2nd innings to lay.For 1st inning trading opportunity wait for 1.2x or 1.7x odds of SA to lay in first case and back in second case if comes.
..............
Yesterday P/L +£12.6
Monthly P/L +£1500.4

Hello and very warm welcome to our 4th ODI inplay post.Match will start at 08:30 GMT because today is friday.Pakistan leading the series 2-1 not anticipated by many.Odds are 1.85 SA as favourites.
So far in series key thing is spin bowling by Pakistan in middle overs and Saffers find it difficult to get away.
So if SA bat first consider lay them around 1.6x in 15 overs if comes at score 50/1 or 80/2.
If Pak bat first and Afridi opens try to take advantage like if flying start than lay Pakistan 1.6x if comes in 10 overs.I will update as soon as i get news on pitch and teams.
Good luck.

India Blue v India Red,Challenger Trophy,25 October 2007 {Inplay}

Hello and welcome to our India domestic one-day tournament 1st match inplay.Not a long tournament only 3 teams which will play each other one game than 2 teams will qualify for final on the basis of points/run rate.
Today is the first match between India Blue and India Red (Don't know much about the teams as big players are not playing although read reviews at cricinfo.com and by that I'm taking them as equal teams).
Pitch report is that it is full of runs ( 270+) There will be due factor later on also all matches will be played at same ground and all are day/night.
India blue won the toss and elected to bat first.Score is 46/4 in 14 overs and odds are 1.28 India Red as favourites.

Not much opportunity at this time but if some recovery by India Blue like 80/4 then i will consider lay around 1.3x with back plan at 1.6x if comes.
It is looking a low score match and there may be good free lays/trading opportunities in 2nd inning.So main trading will be in 2nd inning as always (liquidity will be also better at that time).
Good luck to all.

Hottest Tip For Trading Sports

Monthly P/L +£1487.8
Traded on least matches this month since start of blog.Busy days so obviously less 'Inplay posts' also.
As i said before i reduced my stakes to make me comfortable most of the times.Biggest profit (around 800) this month came in 2nd Test match between South Africa and Pakistan.In that 'Best Free Lay Of Month' which was South Africa at 1.4x in their 2nd innings i found.Because there was no reason that it may shorten more than 1.40 till SA bat.So it was almost 90 overs free lay and eventually drifted to 1.9x in middle.
Rest is of ODI matches with loss in 2 and profit in 4 matches and net P/L of one-days is 680.5 but good thing is that loss was not more than 150 in any match.
Bad thing is that loss in those matches came because due to shortage of time i involved at death with no planning.Anyway losses has always excuses and the main thing is what we learn from them.
Coming to the main topic 'Hottest Tip' :
I nowdays applying it on all cricket matches in which i trade and that is while seeing matches live on T.V i switch off the volume means no sound (mute) and it is working well from trading point of view by:
1.Cool and comfort>it is more in crunch/tense situation in match to make plan.
2.F3 Gland>Fear,fight and flight or adrenaline effect is less without sound like when you see any wicket or four and six in match and that is going against you.
Main thing is mind is more relaxed while we are not listening crowd roar or commentators rubbish hence chances of wrong trades are decreased because you can asses situation and make better plans while trading on sports.
It has a psychological impact and i think this tip will work on all sports.Try it and then tell me results.
All the best.

Pakistan v South Africa,2nd ODI {Inplay}

4th Update
SA 60/2 from 12 overs.
Odds Pak 1.85
I'm waiting for SA odds in low zone:1.7x for quick trade and 1.2x for free lay if comes.
................
3rd Update
Pak 265/9 in 50.0 over (Innings break)
Odds SA 1.73
Bang on target again as 1st inning plan gone well.
Now 2nd inning plan is to wait for bat/chasing team in low odds like 1.2x and wickets/run rate at that time.Good trading opportunity will be if South Africa got electric start than lay them in 1.38-1.42 in 1st 10 overs.Remember it is a day/night game so chase will be not so easy.
All the best.
................
2nd Update
Pakistan 171/3 in 36 overs.
Odds Pak 1.83
In 1st Update i advised lay Pakistan 1.82 or below now you can see after 7 overs odds are same.It is called 'free lay'.
................
1st Update
Pakistan 141/3 in 29 overs.
Odds Pak 1.82
Market predicting score 270-280 range.Lay Pak now for small and if comes in 1.7x lay some more then wait.
................
Hello and morning all.Pakistan won the toss and elected to bat first.Just a reminder it is the same venue where 1st ODI played and a day/night match.
1st Inning plan by 'Predict Target Odds' is:
Pakistan bat first
310 1.6x
290 1.8x
270 evens
250 2.6
230 3.8x
210 5.0x
so lay Pak if comes in 1.7x zone.For good trading opportunity back SA at 2.0 if comes in 1st ten overs.
Good luck

What Is Free Lay And Why It Exists:Reconstructed

Hello and welcome back.It is officially now that this blog is on cricket trading.When i started this blog i want to cover some other sports on which i sometimes trade but i found it difficult to get in at micro level like cricket,so i dropped idea to cover other sports.
I love cricket to watch and play.I likes to loft balls out of the ground and a handy medium fast bowler on club/college level. :-)
Nowdays plays less due to busy schedules.
So basically I'm a cricket lover.That's why i decided to trade only on cricket.

Now come to the main topic that what is 'Free Lays' and why it 'Exists'
Although i posted it before but i want a repost on it or a reminder post.
What Is Free Lay:
Free lay is the odds generally short which have great potential of upward move than downward move and best range is 1.2x to 1.4x zone.It may shorten but not more than 20% and may remained unchanged for a long period inplay or prematch.
For eg. any team chasing 280 in 50 over match and at some stage like 30 overs is 151/3 and odds are 1.25
Equation is:
130 runs needed in 20 overs at 6.5/over
Most of the times it looks easy but if you follow cricket it seldom happened swiftly like chasing team wins one way after 3 wickets in high chase games.like i said odds may reach to 1.1x zone but any wicket or maiden over and odds back in 1.2x zone and if 2 0r 3 quick wickets at that time then flip flop happens.
It was just a example of a oneday (50 over) game and these 'Free Lays' we may find in any form of cricket at many occasions.
Although as i said many times chances are more in high or low chase matches and most of the times it is in batting team low odds.

Take another example:
1st Innings free lays by predict target odds:
Recently played ODI series between India and Australia whenever Aussies bat first and had flying start there odds reaches in 1.3x zone simply because market mood is that they will score more than 300+ and win from here like 70/1 after 12 overs.
They won from these positions except last match (7th ODI) but there odds reached from 1.3x to 2.0+ in most matches.
So if you understand the basic that at 1.3x 'that was the lowest odds probably which market will offer' if they continue bat well from 70/1 score.
Australia scored 300+ in most of the matches but after some Hiccups or difficulty like lost wickets in middle.
I hope you understand my point.

Why Free Lay Exists:
Answer to this question is simple i think:
1.World betting market open odds for any event for *End result* what is most likely.During inplay it is also seen.
2.Large people still bet for outcome or most likely result of an event.
Because of this Willhill,Stanjames,paddypower still running.So can they offer 1.8+ on Australia when Australia and india playing at start?Definitely not.

These are two simple reasons that why free lay opportunity exists either inplay or prematch.It is up to you to find it.

P.S:
This blog is mainly on cricket but there must be 'Free Lays' opportunities in other sports like Tennis,Football or Rugby etc. also exists.If you trade on them try to find them by your experiences.
That's all for now please send your suggestions/comments on how to find Free Lays. :-)
See you tomorrow.
Good day and best of luck.

A Quick Update

Hello and sorry for no post/inplay after October 14, 2007
My busy days with work and hopefully i will post inplay posts for tomorrow's 2nd ODI Pak/SA and Twenty20 India/Aus
Thanks for regular visit.

India v Australia,6th ODI {Inplay}

1st Update
Ausralia 311/6 49 overs
Odds Australia 1.25

courtesy odds.bestbetting.com

This is Australia price in last 3 hours.

Check it for free lay in 1.3x-1.4x zone in start.

2nd Inning plan is same as before that if india do well in start back Australia 1.8+ if comes in first 10 overs and if they continue to bat well try to find free lay in 1.3x if comes with wickets and run rate at that time.Other thing is Austrlia odds may shorten upto 1.1x if quick wickets in start and consider quick trade opportunity like lay 1.14 then back at 1.25 upto first 2 wickets.

Our 1st inning trade gone well so i will play now with low stakes unless really good free lay which is possible only if India bat well.

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Hello and welcome.Just log in Australia 98/2 after 15 overs.
Odds are 1.41 Aus
Laying them as it may not go below 1.36 next 15 overs.
Good luck

England v Sri Lanka,5th ODI {Inplay}

1st Update
Sri Lanka 211 All out.
Odds England 1.59
Our plan for 1st innings by 'predict target odds' done well.I am going in a mariage party so no update after this in this match.
My only advise is to wait for bat team (England) short odds like 1.2x if comes with wickets and run rate that time to find free lay.Good trading opportunity will be back England 1.8+ for a quick trade after fall of wicket (upto 2 wickets) if comes.
Best of luck
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Hello on this big day when Cricket,Rugby,Football and Race (Hemilton) called as "Patriotic punt" is on way.
Cricket is my favourite sport and i believe in this theory try to give your best where you think you are better.
This month there are fewer posts than previous month.Reasons i told before and again i want to say that it is not easy to do trading daily specially when you only trades on a lengthy game (cricket) with other work.
I also noticed that this month 'inplay posts' are more than other posts such as strategy/prematch or general tradings posts because most of the times i get on at start of the match and then get off to work at end or when i think it is right time for exit point.
Also my P/L post for last 3 or 4 matches is pending.Hopefuly will post them today after match or early tomorrow.
2nd Test between South Africa and Pakistan which ended as Draw was very good for trading although i lost my 15% green on Draw in last 4 sessions.I want to post this match P/L in detail and also want to tell you what was the 'Best Free Lay' of month in that. Now back to 5th ODI.Lanka won the toss and elected to bat.Score is now 25/0 in 3 overs.Odds are Lanka 1.44
My first inning plan by 'Predict target odds' is:
310 1.2x
290 1.3x
270 1.4x
250 1.6x
230 1.8x
210 2.1x
so consider lay Lanka around 1.3x if comes in 1st innings.
*Weather:will be some rain today*
Remember it is a day/night game.
Good luck

South Africa v Pakistan,2nd Test Final Day {Inplay}

Pakistan 162/1 in 46 overs.Require another 295 in 74 overs.
Odds SA 4.0,Pak 7.4,Draw 1.44
Hello and welcome back.A classic Test match cricket this is going to be.Draw reached in 1.4x zone and SA odds drifted to 4 and overs remained 74.
New ball due in 35 overs.Well i predicted that Draw may not go below 1.5x but it gone also SA drift more than i assumed.
Anyway plan is not changed and laying draw now and hoping that it will not go below 1.40 in next 20 overs.Other option is to back SA 5+ when comes but i want to wait for more drift.
Good luck

South Africa v Pakistan,2nd Test,4th Day,Post Tea {Inplay}

2nd Update
4th Day (Stumps)
Pakistan 108/1 require another 349 runs to win in 90 overs.
Odds South Africa 2.74,Pakistan 14.5,Draw 1.73
Well Draw in full picture now.And options for us are either back SA or lay Draw.My book on any result is good.As per plan taken SA around 2.5 and want to let it run till lunch tomorrow with bail out plan.As discussed before looking for Draw around 1.5-1.6 as good free lay.So plenty of good opportunities we may find tomorrow but for now SA at 2.74 is a good trading opportunity and if you want to play safe then wait for Draw odds in 1.5x zone tomorrow.

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1st Update
Pakistan 59/1 in 19 overs.Require 398 more to win in 105 overs.
Odds are SA 2.1,Pakistan 20 and Draw 2.0
Before 1st wicket SA odds reached to 1.9x zone and after wicket 1.5x
Wicket cutting bowling team odds by 0.4 approx and that was 1st wicket so next wicket may cut odds by 0.5 and if it will be Younus Khan may be SA odds cut by 0.6
Planning now is to wait for SA odds 2.4+ or Draw odds in 1.6x zone.I think Draw at 1.5x or 1.6x will be a good free lay any time because Pakistan win at that time will also come in consideration.
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Hello and welcome back.SA 305/4d and Pakistan needs 456 to win.34 overs today and whole 5th day means minimum 124 overs play more left in this match if bad light or rain stays away.
I chosen to start new post because previous post gone lengthy and also i've closed my main position on this match.Only plan now is to play(lay) in low odds either South Africa or Draw or (fingers crossed) Pakistan if comes with minimum stakes.
Waiting for SA or Draw odds in 1.3x zone if comes from now on and wickets at that time.
Good trading opportunity will be in SA 2.4+ odds if comes today because any wicket at that time will cut their odds by 0.5
All the best.Waiting for comments/suggestions